Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite
That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit)
"Brief" explanation:
First, let me say that even though the "pre-system" and "system" combined are over 55 games over .500 in the past 2 and a half years, people are always trying to "improve" the system or "explain" why a system game loses. For every one time the system loses with a team ranked between 180-200, there is another one time the system loses with a team ranked between 260-280, for every one time the system loses with a team favored by 7, there is another one time the system loses with a team favored by 15.
The only significant common trend of the system losses is with teams/games that are "bet into" the 6.5+ range when opening below that number. There are numerous explanations for this, but its really not important right now, what is important is that this minor tweak to avoid these particular system losses makes the system a little less "simple." For sake of simplicity, the "opening number" is the first number you are able to bet the NIGHT BEFORE the game in question.
Next, the kenpom number has dropped because there are more mediocre teams in college hoops this season (of course this is a subjective statement and you can use many different methods to prove/disprove this opinion). My main reason for the drop in Kenpom ranking for the season and my belief that there are more mediocre teams in NCAA this year is how volatile the rankings are this season. Take, for instance, Cal Poly this season. On Jan 26th (just over three weeks ago), they were Kenpom ranked 86 and now, on Feb 19th, they are 180! North Texas was ranked 240 on January 1st, now, just over six weeks later (and multiple suspensions mind you), they are ranked 156. This is also good for us because teams that get hot will more quickly move out of the range of a system play and teams that play poorly will drop into the system more readily as well.
Also, two years ago, of the teams ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 7 teams that made the NCAA tournament. Last year, of team ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 3 teams that made the NCAA tournament. This year, when looking at the Kenpom 140-180, there would be definitely zero at-large ncaa teams and you can certainly count on one hand how many you THINK could POSSIBLY make a run at their conference tournament championship and the automatic ncaa tourney bid.
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