I don’t wanna jinx it, but I Think it’s safe to say that now books are lazier than ever, basically becoming reliant on kenpom and just copying their lines with little movement. For that reason, this system is having huge returns esrly on. This is great for us so far. Fuck the books for not doing their jobs
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
0
I don’t wanna jinx it, but I Think it’s safe to say that now books are lazier than ever, basically becoming reliant on kenpom and just copying their lines with little movement. For that reason, this system is having huge returns esrly on. This is great for us so far. Fuck the books for not doing their jobs
@OlDirtyBaztid Could this system be improved with https://barttorvik.com by adjusting ranking for the last 30 days.
good question. i've never thought about it, but i don't think i would try it without some testing. i'll start monitoring until conference tournaments start. i like barrtorvik, too.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
0
Quote Originally Posted by lotsill:
@OlDirtyBaztid Could this system be improved with https://barttorvik.com by adjusting ranking for the last 30 days.
good question. i've never thought about it, but i don't think i would try it without some testing. i'll start monitoring until conference tournaments start. i like barrtorvik, too.
mcneese +6.5<--careful with this as they just covered last night
binghampton +6.5
morgan st +7
pepperdine +8
northwestern st +6.5
grambling st +9
eastern illinois +10.5
houston baptist +13
delaware st +15
columbia +11.5 <---careful with this one, too
farleigh +14.5 <--and this one
iupui +17.5<--lastly with the outright +15 winner last game
ca poly slo +11
personally, i'm gonna round robin them. that's about all the action i need on these. i'll post up the odds tomorrow when my book allows parlays. they're 9-4-1 ats so far
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
3
columbia is a winna. tomorrow we have some uglies
north carolina a&t +7.5
mcneese +6.5<--careful with this as they just covered last night
binghampton +6.5
morgan st +7
pepperdine +8
northwestern st +6.5
grambling st +9
eastern illinois +10.5
houston baptist +13
delaware st +15
columbia +11.5 <---careful with this one, too
farleigh +14.5 <--and this one
iupui +17.5<--lastly with the outright +15 winner last game
ca poly slo +11
personally, i'm gonna round robin them. that's about all the action i need on these. i'll post up the odds tomorrow when my book allows parlays. they're 9-4-1 ats so far
Bet against any team: That Is Kenpom #165 or worse That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit) "Brief" explanation: First, let me say that even though the "pre-system" and "system" combined are over 55 games over .500 in the past 2 and a half years, people are always trying to "improve" the system or "explain" why a system game loses. For every one time the system loses with a team ranked between 180-200, there is another one time the system loses with a team ranked between 260-280, for every one time the system loses with a team favored by 7, there is another one time the system loses with a team favored by 15. The only significant common trend of the system losses is with teams/games that are "bet into" the 6.5+ range when opening below that number. There are numerous explanations for this, but its really not important right now, what is important is that this minor tweak to avoid these particular system losses makes the system a little less "simple." For sake of simplicity, the "opening number" is the first number you are able to bet the NIGHT BEFORE the game in question. Next, the kenpom number has dropped because there are more mediocre teams in college hoops this season (of course this is a subjective statement and you can use many different methods to prove/disprove this opinion). My main reason for the drop in Kenpom ranking for the season and my belief that there are more mediocre teams in NCAA this year is how volatile the rankings are this season. Take, for instance, Cal Poly this season. On Jan 26th (just over three weeks ago), they were Kenpom ranked 86 and now, on Feb 19th, they are 180! North Texas was ranked 240 on January 1st, now, just over six weeks later (and multiple suspensions mind you), they are ranked 156. This is also good for us because teams that get hot will more quickly move out of the range of a system play and teams that play poorly will drop into the system more readily as well. Also, two years ago, of the teams ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 7 teams that made the NCAA tournament. Last year, of team ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 3 teams that made the NCAA tournament. This year, when looking at the Kenpom 140-180, there would be definitely zero at-large ncaa teams and you can certainly count on one hand how many you THINK could POSSIBLY make a run at their conference tournament championship and the automatic ncaa tourney bid.
so do you apply this only late season or does it works earlier? interesting regardless
0
Quote Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:
Bet against any team: That Is Kenpom #165 or worse That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite That is at home and always has "lined" games (includes Summit) "Brief" explanation: First, let me say that even though the "pre-system" and "system" combined are over 55 games over .500 in the past 2 and a half years, people are always trying to "improve" the system or "explain" why a system game loses. For every one time the system loses with a team ranked between 180-200, there is another one time the system loses with a team ranked between 260-280, for every one time the system loses with a team favored by 7, there is another one time the system loses with a team favored by 15. The only significant common trend of the system losses is with teams/games that are "bet into" the 6.5+ range when opening below that number. There are numerous explanations for this, but its really not important right now, what is important is that this minor tweak to avoid these particular system losses makes the system a little less "simple." For sake of simplicity, the "opening number" is the first number you are able to bet the NIGHT BEFORE the game in question. Next, the kenpom number has dropped because there are more mediocre teams in college hoops this season (of course this is a subjective statement and you can use many different methods to prove/disprove this opinion). My main reason for the drop in Kenpom ranking for the season and my belief that there are more mediocre teams in NCAA this year is how volatile the rankings are this season. Take, for instance, Cal Poly this season. On Jan 26th (just over three weeks ago), they were Kenpom ranked 86 and now, on Feb 19th, they are 180! North Texas was ranked 240 on January 1st, now, just over six weeks later (and multiple suspensions mind you), they are ranked 156. This is also good for us because teams that get hot will more quickly move out of the range of a system play and teams that play poorly will drop into the system more readily as well. Also, two years ago, of the teams ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 7 teams that made the NCAA tournament. Last year, of team ranked in Kenpom's 140-180, there were 3 teams that made the NCAA tournament. This year, when looking at the Kenpom 140-180, there would be definitely zero at-large ncaa teams and you can certainly count on one hand how many you THINK could POSSIBLY make a run at their conference tournament championship and the automatic ncaa tourney bid.
so do you apply this only late season or does it works earlier? interesting regardless
While I really like a few of those listed above, namely Coppin St, Del St, and the Citadel, I really don't know about Evansville. They're pretty bad. Any thoughts?
0
While I really like a few of those listed above, namely Coppin St, Del St, and the Citadel, I really don't know about Evansville. They're pretty bad. Any thoughts?
lol. they're all bad! i noticed if teams covered the game before, they occasionally miss the following game. i don't have a tally for the weekend and honestly i'm too lazy to look. i know a few won outright though.
@stinkroach
no. only beginning of february. that's when the variance starts to really hit in kenpom i believe.
@FadeMeAllDay-
lined meaning they had lines for the games they played. sometimes these guys play d2 schools and there's no lines available.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
1
lol. they're all bad! i noticed if teams covered the game before, they occasionally miss the following game. i don't have a tally for the weekend and honestly i'm too lazy to look. i know a few won outright though.
@stinkroach
no. only beginning of february. that's when the variance starts to really hit in kenpom i believe.
@FadeMeAllDay-
lined meaning they had lines for the games they played. sometimes these guys play d2 schools and there's no lines available.
really like coppin st just because of the lookahead for howard. i'll be taking evansville for the same reasoning and because they just got embarrassed by valpo in their last game.
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
0
really like coppin st just because of the lookahead for howard. i'll be taking evansville for the same reasoning and because they just got embarrassed by valpo in their last game.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.