Thanks guys ! Yeah some books won’t offer this game because, they know only smart $ will be on this particular game. SFA has always been known as a BB school. These freshmen on NO are trying to go to as many SB parties that’s available to them.
thanks for the compliment Wize.. class act man ..
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Thanks guys ! Yeah some books won’t offer this game because, they know only smart $ will be on this particular game. SFA has always been known as a BB school. These freshmen on NO are trying to go to as many SB parties that’s available to them.
8 is unplayable for me. New Orleans has struggled at home, but have road wins at Lamar and TAM-CC, both of who are better teams than SFA. Austin plays at a snail's pace and rarely blow anyone out. They also only have 2 league wins and are 6-12-1 ATS. Good luck to all those who play this but at 8 or 8.5 I would definitely tread carefully.
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8 is unplayable for me. New Orleans has struggled at home, but have road wins at Lamar and TAM-CC, both of who are better teams than SFA. Austin plays at a snail's pace and rarely blow anyone out. They also only have 2 league wins and are 6-12-1 ATS. Good luck to all those who play this but at 8 or 8.5 I would definitely tread carefully.
On the negative side, SFA's turnover/possession stat is 23.9%, 3rd worst in CBB this year. I won't bet a team if their TO/poss number is over 16%, certainly not a conference road fav. Just a rule for me; it's been money over the long haul.
NO is bad, as you point out, and you will most likely win, but no play for me.
RT2
1
On the negative side, SFA's turnover/possession stat is 23.9%, 3rd worst in CBB this year. I won't bet a team if their TO/poss number is over 16%, certainly not a conference road fav. Just a rule for me; it's been money over the long haul.
NO is bad, as you point out, and you will most likely win, but no play for me.
I feel you Rebel. NO’s TO ratio is also 15.9 %. Yes lower but still very bad. Everything else I pointed out in my write up, was just too good to be true. Should be a total domination. NO also don’t create many TO’s.
let’s go Hockey !! …
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I feel you Rebel. NO’s TO ratio is also 15.9 %. Yes lower but still very bad. Everything else I pointed out in my write up, was just too good to be true. Should be a total domination. NO also don’t create many TO’s.
We got drunk after the Rangers win last night and I later bet $75 on New Mexico to get to the Final Four so take my judgement with a grain of salt right now LOL. Good luck with the 'Jacks tonight.
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@Rolexsports
We got drunk after the Rangers win last night and I later bet $75 on New Mexico to get to the Final Four so take my judgement with a grain of salt right now LOL. Good luck with the 'Jacks tonight.
Started capping this game last night. I don’t see anything else here but , a blowout from SFA. If anyone else sees anything different, chime in and tell me otherwise. NO hasn’t won a game @ home all year. They are 0-6 @ home & 0-6 ATS @ home. SFA isn’t some great school either but, at least they have a lot of positive stats on defense and other areas that are night and day compared to NO, plus SFA isn’t some great 5-4-1 on the road. Anyone that reads my post know I pay several different sites for information. One site I pay , has zero positive metrics for NO on defense per player and only 1 positive rating for 1 player on offense and that player’s offensive rating barely is at a positive @ ( + 0.19 ). This same site has 7 positive rated players on defense but, zero positives on offense per player. Everyone knows, I normally bet teams that have the better defense. These two teams on the defensive end, is night and day as well. My other site I gather info from have NO ranked 395th in the nation and SFA ranked 91st nationally. Huge gap!! Another site have NO ranked 344th , for SFA 111th. Another big gap. Kenpom ranks NO defensively @ 328th in opponent defensive rating and SFA @ 55th nationally nationally. Another site I pay have SFA ranked 35th nationally, and NO ranked 346th defensively nationally. This is one of the largest discrepancy’s I’ve seen in quite a while. Both teams rank in the 300’s on offense nationally. NO’s home defense per possession gives up 1.132 pts( horrible) SFA’s defensive pts per possession gives up less @ 0.979 away. Every time I see a team that has better defensive metrics on the road than the team that is playing @ home, it’s an auto play for me. Opponents FG% on defense. SFA 47.5% / NO 54.4 %, which is plain sad. SFA average score margin isn’t good @ - 4.7, but NO’s average score margin is a whopping minus 15.6!! Experience: SFA is the 197th most experienced team nationally, NO 331st most experienced team nationally ( all freshmen pretty much). Huge gap. Young men vs a bunch of 18 year olds. SOS NO has played a tougher schedule though, is the only thing I don’t like. Per KP: NO + 2.26 104th, SFA - 3.36 # 259th. I love SOS factoring in my capping but, that’s all NO have working for them. They’ve played a tougher schedule but, still are 0-6 @ home. Offensive rebounding rate: SFA 34.2 % , NO 25.4 %. Height: SFA 67th nationally, NO 356th another HUGE gap. How are these freshmen going to score and rebound. I don’t see it. SFA scores 1.01 pts per possession , NO 0.94 pts per possession. I had to pay a premium @ - 115, to invest in SFA, who’s paying attention to a game like this but sharp money or else it would be a standard - 110. I see nothing but a blowout here, SFA - 4.5 large…
goldfinger 1964
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Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:
Started capping this game last night. I don’t see anything else here but , a blowout from SFA. If anyone else sees anything different, chime in and tell me otherwise. NO hasn’t won a game @ home all year. They are 0-6 @ home & 0-6 ATS @ home. SFA isn’t some great school either but, at least they have a lot of positive stats on defense and other areas that are night and day compared to NO, plus SFA isn’t some great 5-4-1 on the road. Anyone that reads my post know I pay several different sites for information. One site I pay , has zero positive metrics for NO on defense per player and only 1 positive rating for 1 player on offense and that player’s offensive rating barely is at a positive @ ( + 0.19 ). This same site has 7 positive rated players on defense but, zero positives on offense per player. Everyone knows, I normally bet teams that have the better defense. These two teams on the defensive end, is night and day as well. My other site I gather info from have NO ranked 395th in the nation and SFA ranked 91st nationally. Huge gap!! Another site have NO ranked 344th , for SFA 111th. Another big gap. Kenpom ranks NO defensively @ 328th in opponent defensive rating and SFA @ 55th nationally nationally. Another site I pay have SFA ranked 35th nationally, and NO ranked 346th defensively nationally. This is one of the largest discrepancy’s I’ve seen in quite a while. Both teams rank in the 300’s on offense nationally. NO’s home defense per possession gives up 1.132 pts( horrible) SFA’s defensive pts per possession gives up less @ 0.979 away. Every time I see a team that has better defensive metrics on the road than the team that is playing @ home, it’s an auto play for me. Opponents FG% on defense. SFA 47.5% / NO 54.4 %, which is plain sad. SFA average score margin isn’t good @ - 4.7, but NO’s average score margin is a whopping minus 15.6!! Experience: SFA is the 197th most experienced team nationally, NO 331st most experienced team nationally ( all freshmen pretty much). Huge gap. Young men vs a bunch of 18 year olds. SOS NO has played a tougher schedule though, is the only thing I don’t like. Per KP: NO + 2.26 104th, SFA - 3.36 # 259th. I love SOS factoring in my capping but, that’s all NO have working for them. They’ve played a tougher schedule but, still are 0-6 @ home. Offensive rebounding rate: SFA 34.2 % , NO 25.4 %. Height: SFA 67th nationally, NO 356th another HUGE gap. How are these freshmen going to score and rebound. I don’t see it. SFA scores 1.01 pts per possession , NO 0.94 pts per possession. I had to pay a premium @ - 115, to invest in SFA, who’s paying attention to a game like this but sharp money or else it would be a standard - 110. I see nothing but a blowout here, SFA - 4.5 large…
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On the negative side, SFA's turnover/possession stat is 23.9%, 3rd worst in CBB this year. I won't bet a team if their TO/poss number is over 16%, certainly not a conference road fav. Just a rule for me; it's been money over the long haul.
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