I don't know about you guys, but I find these lines to be inflated...with value hard to come by, whether you play faves, dogs or both...If you can't rely on tendencies, or even metrics, night over night, teams can play like NCAA tournament teams one night, and like a marginal team the next...We are all playing lines based on season history to date, with some minor adjustments...But, there seem to be very few teams who play consistently well...Come tournament time, teams play like there is no tomorrow...and value assessment is somewhat easier...I have been at about 50% ATS since early January NCAAM, and my losses have been minimal...So I am not b!tching, because I know the risks...and I don't believe in conspiracy theories or fixes...And I am sure someone will respond to this post that they are winning on a regular basis, because they are supposedly such a good capper. Somebodies winning I guess...What differentiates sports betting from casino table games is that it is a game of skill versus a game of chance...Granted you have to be lucky, smart and focussed to sustainably win at sports betting, regardless of which sport that you try to play...I think I will keep selectively testing my hypothesis on matchups, and hopefully get sharper in evaluating the teams, and figuring out which teams that I trust, when backing faves or dogs...
The bottom line is that in order to be successful in NCAAM sportsbetting, you must have an edge...And we are in the part of the season that is extremely tough to cap consistently...
LonghornHoosier
2
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I don't know about you guys, but I find these lines to be inflated...with value hard to come by, whether you play faves, dogs or both...If you can't rely on tendencies, or even metrics, night over night, teams can play like NCAA tournament teams one night, and like a marginal team the next...We are all playing lines based on season history to date, with some minor adjustments...But, there seem to be very few teams who play consistently well...Come tournament time, teams play like there is no tomorrow...and value assessment is somewhat easier...I have been at about 50% ATS since early January NCAAM, and my losses have been minimal...So I am not b!tching, because I know the risks...and I don't believe in conspiracy theories or fixes...And I am sure someone will respond to this post that they are winning on a regular basis, because they are supposedly such a good capper. Somebodies winning I guess...What differentiates sports betting from casino table games is that it is a game of skill versus a game of chance...Granted you have to be lucky, smart and focussed to sustainably win at sports betting, regardless of which sport that you try to play...I think I will keep selectively testing my hypothesis on matchups, and hopefully get sharper in evaluating the teams, and figuring out which teams that I trust, when backing faves or dogs...
The bottom line is that in order to be successful in NCAAM sportsbetting, you must have an edge...And we are in the part of the season that is extremely tough to cap consistently...
Seems that way...Baylor is a perfect example tonight...Ok St is not bad, but Baylor should have been able to cover that small spread and beat their arse.....and they won ML in OT and did not cover...
LonghornHoosier
0
@ICAPSports
Seems that way...Baylor is a perfect example tonight...Ok St is not bad, but Baylor should have been able to cover that small spread and beat their arse.....and they won ML in OT and did not cover...
Only 3 ranked teams played today,but i've noticed when the new polls come out on monday,the teams who moved up in the polls seem to play sloppy on monday and tuesday.
1
Only 3 ranked teams played today,but i've noticed when the new polls come out on monday,the teams who moved up in the polls seem to play sloppy on monday and tuesday.
Only 3 ranked teams played today,but i've noticed when the new polls come out on monday,the teams who moved up in the polls seem to play sloppy on monday and tuesday.
LonghornHoosier
0
good point...
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:
Only 3 ranked teams played today,but i've noticed when the new polls come out on monday,the teams who moved up in the polls seem to play sloppy on monday and tuesday.
I find prior to conference play when you get a lot of neutral floor games is the best time to play sides and the lines are short. Once conference play hits all bets are off and the roller coaster is vicious and discipline is everything. But if we had discipline we probably wouldn’t be on here all day so that’s the hard part hahaha. I find historically the biggest bloodbath week is the first conference tournament week with the majority of the mid majors. The top conference teams always seem to go down against a team who had a subpar regular season. Wright St, South Dakota St and Vermont stick out from last year. I’d rather go big on a few teams I trust than try to figure out 300+ teams and spread it out and lose or juice out and that seems to be the key for me at least.
0
I find prior to conference play when you get a lot of neutral floor games is the best time to play sides and the lines are short. Once conference play hits all bets are off and the roller coaster is vicious and discipline is everything. But if we had discipline we probably wouldn’t be on here all day so that’s the hard part hahaha. I find historically the biggest bloodbath week is the first conference tournament week with the majority of the mid majors. The top conference teams always seem to go down against a team who had a subpar regular season. Wright St, South Dakota St and Vermont stick out from last year. I’d rather go big on a few teams I trust than try to figure out 300+ teams and spread it out and lose or juice out and that seems to be the key for me at least.
I wish we had a repository of current anecdotes like collectnows that we could post...Is there anyway that Covers could make this string or another one dedicated to trends that could benefit the entire community, as the NCAA tournament approaches... it get be tacked to the top, and not move...with effective oversight by the so called covers moderators to keep the junk out... there is so much hatred on covers...whether its the degenerates who lie about their record, the action junkies, or the conspiracy theory hacks that promote fixes...I would like to see the folks who own covers do more to promote espirit de corps this on their site...there is no value added in attacking each other...it just confuses posters...and who wins? the books...
LonghornHoosier
1
I wish we had a repository of current anecdotes like collectnows that we could post...Is there anyway that Covers could make this string or another one dedicated to trends that could benefit the entire community, as the NCAA tournament approaches... it get be tacked to the top, and not move...with effective oversight by the so called covers moderators to keep the junk out... there is so much hatred on covers...whether its the degenerates who lie about their record, the action junkies, or the conspiracy theory hacks that promote fixes...I would like to see the folks who own covers do more to promote espirit de corps this on their site...there is no value added in attacking each other...it just confuses posters...and who wins? the books...
I find prior to conference play when you get a lot of neutral floor games is the best time to play sides and the lines are short. Once conference play hits all bets are off and the roller coaster is vicious and discipline is everything. But if we had discipline we probably wouldn’t be on here all day so that’s the hard part hahaha. I find historically the biggest bloodbath week is the first conference tournament week with the majority of the mid majors. The top conference teams always seem to go down against a team who had a subpar regular season. Wright St, South Dakota St and Vermont stick out from last year. I’d rather go big on a few teams I trust than try to figure out 300+ teams and spread it out and lose or juice out and that seems to be the key for me at least.
LonghornHoosier
0
That's good stuff...thank you!
Quote Originally Posted by DeaconPalmer:
I find prior to conference play when you get a lot of neutral floor games is the best time to play sides and the lines are short. Once conference play hits all bets are off and the roller coaster is vicious and discipline is everything. But if we had discipline we probably wouldn’t be on here all day so that’s the hard part hahaha. I find historically the biggest bloodbath week is the first conference tournament week with the majority of the mid majors. The top conference teams always seem to go down against a team who had a subpar regular season. Wright St, South Dakota St and Vermont stick out from last year. I’d rather go big on a few teams I trust than try to figure out 300+ teams and spread it out and lose or juice out and that seems to be the key for me at least.
I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
0
I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
Live betting has been my biggest ally all season long, hell I hardly even make bets pre game anymore unless im very confident the game is going to start and go how I perceive making a live bet useless in my favor later on..
1
Live betting has been my biggest ally all season long, hell I hardly even make bets pre game anymore unless im very confident the game is going to start and go how I perceive making a live bet useless in my favor later on..
Live betting is all about value and if your convictions are good. The only time live betting a total seems good is if they start slow and you feel like you know it will pick up and now maybe you get a 7-10 point discount. If you bet an inflated over bc the teams are hot, you’ve lost all of the work they’ve already done and leave yourself no margin for error moving forward and in that case the books clean up.
Personally I salivate if a UCLA, Purdue, Murray St, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke get down to an inferior team at home. That’s when you hammer and take your chances. Purdue was a 14ish point fave against Maryland missing their best player on super bowl Sunday and down 10 with 12 mins left which is plenty of time for a team that good you could get them at a pick ‘em. 4 mins later they’re winning lol.
0
Live betting is all about value and if your convictions are good. The only time live betting a total seems good is if they start slow and you feel like you know it will pick up and now maybe you get a 7-10 point discount. If you bet an inflated over bc the teams are hot, you’ve lost all of the work they’ve already done and leave yourself no margin for error moving forward and in that case the books clean up.
Personally I salivate if a UCLA, Purdue, Murray St, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke get down to an inferior team at home. That’s when you hammer and take your chances. Purdue was a 14ish point fave against Maryland missing their best player on super bowl Sunday and down 10 with 12 mins left which is plenty of time for a team that good you could get them at a pick ‘em. 4 mins later they’re winning lol.
You are an example of what's wrong with covers...Everyone is on the honestly system here...and I think you are FOS...I predicted folks like you in my initial post...Keep on killing it, buddy...;)
Quote Originally Posted by Greengrass:
I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
LonghornHoosier
1
You are an example of what's wrong with covers...Everyone is on the honestly system here...and I think you are FOS...I predicted folks like you in my initial post...Keep on killing it, buddy...;)
Quote Originally Posted by Greengrass:
I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
that's the thing, the lines are sharp, and yes, there are huge talent delta matchups, so you don't know if I team will lay an egg like Baylor did tonight ATS or kick the crap out of bad team that they should dominate...yes, I know, its gambling, and there are no absolutes...But, you want to feel like if you study the matchups, you can find value...but these guys are human and subject to variability of performance or motivation...that is what makes it so challenging. my favorite two days of the NCAAM year are the first two days (not the play ins) but the Thursday and Friday first days of the NCAA tournament...Lines are generally based on the performance of both teams during the entire season, including late season swoons...so the lines are more reasonable...And the more talented, better coached and disciplined teams will play to the best of their ability, cause its the Big Dance...I know its win and advance, but for these 18-22 year olds, its the Big Dance, and there is more value and more predictability of returns...After the first round, it gets tougher, but value can be found on Sat/Sun and in the sweet 16, if you are disciplined and very selective...
Quote Originally Posted by DeaconPalmer:
Live betting is all about value and if your convictions are good. The only time live betting a total seems good is if they start slow and you feel like you know it will pick up and now maybe you get a 7-10 point discount. If you bet an inflated over bc the teams are hot, you’ve lost all of the work they’ve already done and leave yourself no margin for error moving forward and in that case the books clean up. Personally I salivate if a UCLA, Purdue, Murray St, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke get down to an inferior team at home. That’s when you hammer and take your chances. Purdue was a 14ish point fave against Maryland missing their best player on super bowl Sunday and down 10 with 12 mins left which is plenty of time for a team that good you could get them at a pick ‘em. 4 mins later they’re winning lol.
LonghornHoosier
0
that's the thing, the lines are sharp, and yes, there are huge talent delta matchups, so you don't know if I team will lay an egg like Baylor did tonight ATS or kick the crap out of bad team that they should dominate...yes, I know, its gambling, and there are no absolutes...But, you want to feel like if you study the matchups, you can find value...but these guys are human and subject to variability of performance or motivation...that is what makes it so challenging. my favorite two days of the NCAAM year are the first two days (not the play ins) but the Thursday and Friday first days of the NCAA tournament...Lines are generally based on the performance of both teams during the entire season, including late season swoons...so the lines are more reasonable...And the more talented, better coached and disciplined teams will play to the best of their ability, cause its the Big Dance...I know its win and advance, but for these 18-22 year olds, its the Big Dance, and there is more value and more predictability of returns...After the first round, it gets tougher, but value can be found on Sat/Sun and in the sweet 16, if you are disciplined and very selective...
Quote Originally Posted by DeaconPalmer:
Live betting is all about value and if your convictions are good. The only time live betting a total seems good is if they start slow and you feel like you know it will pick up and now maybe you get a 7-10 point discount. If you bet an inflated over bc the teams are hot, you’ve lost all of the work they’ve already done and leave yourself no margin for error moving forward and in that case the books clean up. Personally I salivate if a UCLA, Purdue, Murray St, Kansas, Kentucky, Duke get down to an inferior team at home. That’s when you hammer and take your chances. Purdue was a 14ish point fave against Maryland missing their best player on super bowl Sunday and down 10 with 12 mins left which is plenty of time for a team that good you could get them at a pick ‘em. 4 mins later they’re winning lol.
I love the Saturday Sunday games for sure. The lines get shorter and shorter. Like last year I thought Wisconsin was one of the worst power conference teams in the tournament and they looked lights out against a bad defensive UNC team. They were only getting 6.5 vs Baylor lol. I bought Baylor down to 5 and got a little crazy on the amount and it was virtually never in jeopardy.
The year Nova beat UNC Nova was unstoppable. Playing Buddy Hield and a bunch of nobodies that were definitely not final 4 caliber they’re only -2 and just run them out of the gym after 10 mins. The spots open up if you can avoid the action pitfalls prior haha.
0
I love the Saturday Sunday games for sure. The lines get shorter and shorter. Like last year I thought Wisconsin was one of the worst power conference teams in the tournament and they looked lights out against a bad defensive UNC team. They were only getting 6.5 vs Baylor lol. I bought Baylor down to 5 and got a little crazy on the amount and it was virtually never in jeopardy.
The year Nova beat UNC Nova was unstoppable. Playing Buddy Hield and a bunch of nobodies that were definitely not final 4 caliber they’re only -2 and just run them out of the gym after 10 mins. The spots open up if you can avoid the action pitfalls prior haha.
Since Covid hit, teams are definitely more bunched up than they used to be. Less teams at each extreme and a whole lot in the middle. That being the case, I'm a huge proponent, these last two years, of strictly leaning to the dogs.
0
Since Covid hit, teams are definitely more bunched up than they used to be. Less teams at each extreme and a whole lot in the middle. That being the case, I'm a huge proponent, these last two years, of strictly leaning to the dogs.
good point! On the Thur/Fri games, I stay away from the 10+ point spreads...and definitely the 20+ 1-16 matchups...Sat/Sun smaller spreads, and the research pays off more than not, because teams perform closer to what you expect, versus this, pre conference tournament swoon that we are in now, and the lines are inflated, and its hard to predict how a team will perform game v. game...
LonghornHoosier
1
@DeaconPalmer
good point! On the Thur/Fri games, I stay away from the 10+ point spreads...and definitely the 20+ 1-16 matchups...Sat/Sun smaller spreads, and the research pays off more than not, because teams perform closer to what you expect, versus this, pre conference tournament swoon that we are in now, and the lines are inflated, and its hard to predict how a team will perform game v. game...
You are an example of what's wrong with covers...Everyone is on the honestly system here...and I think you are FOS...I predicted folks like you in my initial post...Keep on killing it, buddy...;) Quote Originally Posted by Greengrass: I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
Seriously...buddy you need a chill pill. Sorry I gave input on your non-revenue producing thread. I would go to the trouble of enlightening you. But you're already lost...loser. Crying about some lines and value...right.
2
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
You are an example of what's wrong with covers...Everyone is on the honestly system here...and I think you are FOS...I predicted folks like you in my initial post...Keep on killing it, buddy...;) Quote Originally Posted by Greengrass: I'm loving it! Since All-Star break is in session been totally focused on College. Fucking killing it...I love the lines. Way easier to read than NBA...that's for sure.
Seriously...buddy you need a chill pill. Sorry I gave input on your non-revenue producing thread. I would go to the trouble of enlightening you. But you're already lost...loser. Crying about some lines and value...right.
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