YTD: 4-1
Tonight presents a very good opportunity to play an over set too low if one can look beyond analyzing the game based soley on the points per game scored and points per game allowed of the two teams involved.
Siena / UMass Over 133
Backing an over with a Siena team only averaging 57.6 ppg, and allowing 60.8 ppg would cause most people to hesitate. Furthermore, the highest final total for a game that Siena has played in this year is 126, so it is counter-intuitive to back a total set tonight 7 points higher than their best output of the season. However, tonight’s match-up with UMass is not like any other opponent they’ve played this season.
First, and maybe most important, the tempo. Siena has yet to play an opponent with an adjusted pace rating higher than 67.5 possessions per game (vs Georgia Tech). UMass enters tonight’s game as the 11th fastest team in the country, averaging 72.7 possessions per game – 5.2 faster than anyone Siena has faced to date! I still am not convinced that Vegas has adjusted for the difference that Chaz Williams (Hofstra transfer) has been to this UMass team and the dribble-drive concepts that Coach Kellogg wants his team to run. This is supported by the fact that UMass is averaging +4.6 more possessions per game than last season. In addition to Siena playing opponents that do not play at the speed of a UMass, they’ve also faced some offensively challenged opponents that has had a negative effect on their totals. Three of their eight opponents this season are ranked 303 or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency (equates to less than 0.914 pts per possession).
As for UMass, as noted they want to play fast – and they’ve been successful dictating the pace to every one of their opponents this year. In only 3 of their games have they had less than 70 possessions, and not one of those was lower than 67. Furthermore, they’ve really found their groove the last 3 games totaling 79 possessions vs a Towson team ranked #274 with respect to pace, 76 possession vs Miami (#285), and 75 possessions vs ECU (#215).
Could this go under? Of course it could. Siena could struggle to get to 60 pts due to UMass’s relatively good defense (ranked #61, only allowing 0.942 pts per poss). However, I think Siena will have stretches tonight that they will be more than able to trade points due to facing a team whose style is much faster and free-flowing than anything they’ve yet to see this year. Furthermore, they should be able to get some easy points from the FT line as well as UMass has a very high tendency to foul (26.3% of their opponents points come from the charity stripe).
Good luck if you decide to make a play
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