There are three Summit League games tonight. SDSU @ IPFW, NDSU @ Oakland & UNO @ WIU. I will have a three plays on two of them.
First NDSU @ Oakland. This is not a no brainer. Oakland has been playing tough at home (other than the USD game) and can beat NDSU. However, I am betting not. I love taking these small lines whether favorite or dog. I bought a full point and played NDSU -3 -130 for 1.5 units. I think that NDSU win by no less than 3. The are not going to blow Oakland out so if they are blowing them out in the first half I will be putting some money (absent injury, foul trouble, etc) on Oakland second half. I will have more to add to this later just wanted to get it in as soon as possible as I actually made all of these Summit League plays about 2 hours ago just didn't have the time to post them until now.
On to the Jacks game. I have no doubt they win. However, laying -425 on the road is tough to do. I don't want to parlay the Jacks with NDSU as that is two road teams parlayed together in a ML just never spells great success either and I am not in love with much else on the board today. So the question is the spread. You would like SDSU no doubt right. Well I definately think they should cover the line just worried how low it is. I fully expected SDSU -12.5 or something like that but it comes out at -9. To make matters worst the line keeps moving down. I played it at 8.5 but now it is 8. I truely cannot figure this out. WTF. SDSU has steamrolled the conference for nearly a month now. IPFW has been pretty damn bad for that long too. Last matchup was at Frost and SDSU won by 27. I know I know they are on the road now but that should not matter much. Hell IPFW as a 9 point home favorite could bearly (1 point) beat IUPUI.
I am just going to go with my instinct and what the matchups dictate and play the following:
SDSU -4.5 1H for 1 unit
SDSU -8.5 FG for 2 units
BOL!
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
There are three Summit League games tonight. SDSU @ IPFW, NDSU @ Oakland & UNO @ WIU. I will have a three plays on two of them.
First NDSU @ Oakland. This is not a no brainer. Oakland has been playing tough at home (other than the USD game) and can beat NDSU. However, I am betting not. I love taking these small lines whether favorite or dog. I bought a full point and played NDSU -3 -130 for 1.5 units. I think that NDSU win by no less than 3. The are not going to blow Oakland out so if they are blowing them out in the first half I will be putting some money (absent injury, foul trouble, etc) on Oakland second half. I will have more to add to this later just wanted to get it in as soon as possible as I actually made all of these Summit League plays about 2 hours ago just didn't have the time to post them until now.
On to the Jacks game. I have no doubt they win. However, laying -425 on the road is tough to do. I don't want to parlay the Jacks with NDSU as that is two road teams parlayed together in a ML just never spells great success either and I am not in love with much else on the board today. So the question is the spread. You would like SDSU no doubt right. Well I definately think they should cover the line just worried how low it is. I fully expected SDSU -12.5 or something like that but it comes out at -9. To make matters worst the line keeps moving down. I played it at 8.5 but now it is 8. I truely cannot figure this out. WTF. SDSU has steamrolled the conference for nearly a month now. IPFW has been pretty damn bad for that long too. Last matchup was at Frost and SDSU won by 27. I know I know they are on the road now but that should not matter much. Hell IPFW as a 9 point home favorite could bearly (1 point) beat IUPUI.
I am just going to go with my instinct and what the matchups dictate and play the following:
Also if I had to play the UNO vs WIU game there is no question I would be taking the points based on how WIU plays basketball they should never be laying these kinds of points to begin with.
0
Also if I had to play the UNO vs WIU game there is no question I would be taking the points based on how WIU plays basketball they should never be laying these kinds of points to begin with.
This line is identical to the line you saw NDSU traveling to WIU a month ago. Remember I was on WIU +4 as a home dog for 2 units and called the WIU outright win. The difference folks between WIU and Oakland is that WIU plays defense. That has been the one thing post-Braun injury that has slowed NDSU down when a team plays defense. NDSU can play defense (perhaps second best in the conference at it) so if a team wants to run with them they will take it. What they don't like is when team play half court offense, take it strong to their big men, get them in foul trouble, clamp down on the few outside shooters, and out physical them. Unless Oakland had a lobotomy that is not how this team plays ball. They will run, run, run and run some more. They isn't a shoot that they didn't like. Look no further than Travis Bader for such an example. The man leads all of D1 with three pointers taken and made. He also leads all of D1 with points off of screens. He truely is bulk of their offense. It does worry a little betting against Bader at home in perhaps their Superbowl (well that game and when the Jacks come into town) but I think the size, strength and efficiency of NDSU will shine through in the end. If NDSU does not cover the 3 that means they lost straight up. I full see at least a 3 point win and perhaps even double digit if Oakland gets cold at the end (or for that matter from the outside all game long) and due to fouls NDSU pulls away. Only 1.5 units on this play so not even a normal play but I had to take my shot on this game as it is rare to get NDSU at this price. I hope and pray SDSU gets this same line when they play next.
Oh yeah one more thing... remember it is still a three way tie for first place in the Summit between NDSU, SDSU and WIU. Therefore, all three really need to keep winning. NDSU and SDSU split their season series. WIU won at home and still has to travel to NDSU. SDSU won at WIU and WIU travels to SDSU at the end of this month.
0
Additional NDSU thoughts/angles:
This line is identical to the line you saw NDSU traveling to WIU a month ago. Remember I was on WIU +4 as a home dog for 2 units and called the WIU outright win. The difference folks between WIU and Oakland is that WIU plays defense. That has been the one thing post-Braun injury that has slowed NDSU down when a team plays defense. NDSU can play defense (perhaps second best in the conference at it) so if a team wants to run with them they will take it. What they don't like is when team play half court offense, take it strong to their big men, get them in foul trouble, clamp down on the few outside shooters, and out physical them. Unless Oakland had a lobotomy that is not how this team plays ball. They will run, run, run and run some more. They isn't a shoot that they didn't like. Look no further than Travis Bader for such an example. The man leads all of D1 with three pointers taken and made. He also leads all of D1 with points off of screens. He truely is bulk of their offense. It does worry a little betting against Bader at home in perhaps their Superbowl (well that game and when the Jacks come into town) but I think the size, strength and efficiency of NDSU will shine through in the end. If NDSU does not cover the 3 that means they lost straight up. I full see at least a 3 point win and perhaps even double digit if Oakland gets cold at the end (or for that matter from the outside all game long) and due to fouls NDSU pulls away. Only 1.5 units on this play so not even a normal play but I had to take my shot on this game as it is rare to get NDSU at this price. I hope and pray SDSU gets this same line when they play next.
Oh yeah one more thing... remember it is still a three way tie for first place in the Summit between NDSU, SDSU and WIU. Therefore, all three really need to keep winning. NDSU and SDSU split their season series. WIU won at home and still has to travel to NDSU. SDSU won at WIU and WIU travels to SDSU at the end of this month.
Additional thoughts and angles when it comes to the SDSU/IPFW game:
Remember IPFW is the Frank Gaines and that show has been poorly attended of late. Meaning he has had very poor play against winning teams. Yes he poored in 32 against UNO (while losing) and 29 against IUPUI but lets look at the SDSUs, NDSUs, and WIUs. 12/29 @ WIU - 8 points & lost by 12; 01/10 @ NDSU - 10 points & lost by 12; 01/12 @ SDSU - 18 points & lost by 26. Only home game IPFW has played against the big three was on 01/24 against WIU and they lost by 3 where Frank had 8 points.
What I take from this is he is going to have to have a 30 point game to keep the Mastodons in the game. 18 points was his contribution against SDSU in Frost and lost by 26. I just don't see 30 points in card for him. To make matters worst Frank I am certain will be guarded by Nate Wolters who is one of the better defenders in the Summit League. Beyond Frank Gaines we got one more double digit scorer (barely) in Luis Jacobo. He only had 8 points against SDSU last game (but 19 @ WIU, 22 @ NDSU and 8 vs. WIU). He is really going to have to step it up and likely will have the best front court defender on his named Tony Fiegen so I am certain he will be closer to that 8 point figure.
There are two things that always concern me about SDSU and that is size and outside shooting. SDSU has the tendency to let down on the perimeter (especially on the road) and can easily be out rebounded. In this case I sincerely doubt either will occur. Their best rebounder (Mario Hines who is questionable for this game with illness) has 5.5 rebounds per game (about the same as Nate) and their best perimeter shooter (the aforementioned Jacobo) shoots less than 40%.
IPFW has lost every game by 9 points or more this season when they were a dog but one. When WIU came into IPFW late last month they were only 2.5 point favorites and won by 3. So even though WIU covered they are the only favorite (home or away) not to beat IPFW by at least 9 this year. Remember the way WIU plays and it makes sense all the reason I think that UNO is the play against WIU tonight but I bought an additional 7.5 points in my teaser just to be safe knowing that UNO plays NO defense.
IPFW is 2-8 ATS in conference play and 1-7 in back to back conference games ATS. They are also 0-5 avenging a road loss against a conference opponent, 0-5 after loss to conference rival, 0-3 after giving up 80 points and 0-3 after failing to cover in three more more consecutive games. As a matter of fact IPFW has failed to cover any spread since 01/10 which is 6 consecutive games. Conversely SDSU is 2-0 as a 8 to 9 point favorite. They are 7-4 ATS (really 7-3-1 defending on what you got the Oakland line at) in conference play this year. They have won 7 straight games since the loss at USD and won every one of them by 6 or more (6 being at WIU) and outside of the WIU and Oakland games the low point mark would be 13. On the road in conference play SDSU lost by 3 at a 7 point dog against NDSU; lost by 4 at USD as an 11 point favorite; won by 16 as a 9 point favorite at UMKC; won by 6 as pk in WIU; and won by 15 as a 10.5 point favorite at IUPUI.
0
Additional thoughts and angles when it comes to the SDSU/IPFW game:
Remember IPFW is the Frank Gaines and that show has been poorly attended of late. Meaning he has had very poor play against winning teams. Yes he poored in 32 against UNO (while losing) and 29 against IUPUI but lets look at the SDSUs, NDSUs, and WIUs. 12/29 @ WIU - 8 points & lost by 12; 01/10 @ NDSU - 10 points & lost by 12; 01/12 @ SDSU - 18 points & lost by 26. Only home game IPFW has played against the big three was on 01/24 against WIU and they lost by 3 where Frank had 8 points.
What I take from this is he is going to have to have a 30 point game to keep the Mastodons in the game. 18 points was his contribution against SDSU in Frost and lost by 26. I just don't see 30 points in card for him. To make matters worst Frank I am certain will be guarded by Nate Wolters who is one of the better defenders in the Summit League. Beyond Frank Gaines we got one more double digit scorer (barely) in Luis Jacobo. He only had 8 points against SDSU last game (but 19 @ WIU, 22 @ NDSU and 8 vs. WIU). He is really going to have to step it up and likely will have the best front court defender on his named Tony Fiegen so I am certain he will be closer to that 8 point figure.
There are two things that always concern me about SDSU and that is size and outside shooting. SDSU has the tendency to let down on the perimeter (especially on the road) and can easily be out rebounded. In this case I sincerely doubt either will occur. Their best rebounder (Mario Hines who is questionable for this game with illness) has 5.5 rebounds per game (about the same as Nate) and their best perimeter shooter (the aforementioned Jacobo) shoots less than 40%.
IPFW has lost every game by 9 points or more this season when they were a dog but one. When WIU came into IPFW late last month they were only 2.5 point favorites and won by 3. So even though WIU covered they are the only favorite (home or away) not to beat IPFW by at least 9 this year. Remember the way WIU plays and it makes sense all the reason I think that UNO is the play against WIU tonight but I bought an additional 7.5 points in my teaser just to be safe knowing that UNO plays NO defense.
IPFW is 2-8 ATS in conference play and 1-7 in back to back conference games ATS. They are also 0-5 avenging a road loss against a conference opponent, 0-5 after loss to conference rival, 0-3 after giving up 80 points and 0-3 after failing to cover in three more more consecutive games. As a matter of fact IPFW has failed to cover any spread since 01/10 which is 6 consecutive games. Conversely SDSU is 2-0 as a 8 to 9 point favorite. They are 7-4 ATS (really 7-3-1 defending on what you got the Oakland line at) in conference play this year. They have won 7 straight games since the loss at USD and won every one of them by 6 or more (6 being at WIU) and outside of the WIU and Oakland games the low point mark would be 13. On the road in conference play SDSU lost by 3 at a 7 point dog against NDSU; lost by 4 at USD as an 11 point favorite; won by 16 as a 9 point favorite at UMKC; won by 6 as pk in WIU; and won by 15 as a 10.5 point favorite at IUPUI.
Going back to the offensive efficency of SDSU versus that of IPFW... check out these stats:
SDSU: 59th in the country in points per game; 69th in assists per game; 63rd in field goal percentage per game; and a 3 point field goal percentage per game of 0.377% per game.
IPFW: 224th in points per game; 272nd in assists per game; 237th in field goal percentage; and a 3 point field goal perctage of 0.330% per game.
0
Going back to the offensive efficency of SDSU versus that of IPFW... check out these stats:
SDSU: 59th in the country in points per game; 69th in assists per game; 63rd in field goal percentage per game; and a 3 point field goal percentage per game of 0.377% per game.
IPFW: 224th in points per game; 272nd in assists per game; 237th in field goal percentage; and a 3 point field goal perctage of 0.330% per game.
I have said time and time again that in this league there rarely is a look ahead game due to the fact that there is little to no media coverage; travel is all around the midwest so there is no extensive trips across the country; basically keeps all the kids on an even keil. That being said, there could be a chance at a back door cover if Frank is hot tonight given that the Jacks travel to Oakland on Saturday in a game that will certainly be more contested than this one. All the more reason that if the Jacks have a big 1H lead to play IPFW 2H to see if you can middle the full game. BOL!
0
I have said time and time again that in this league there rarely is a look ahead game due to the fact that there is little to no media coverage; travel is all around the midwest so there is no extensive trips across the country; basically keeps all the kids on an even keil. That being said, there could be a chance at a back door cover if Frank is hot tonight given that the Jacks travel to Oakland on Saturday in a game that will certainly be more contested than this one. All the more reason that if the Jacks have a big 1H lead to play IPFW 2H to see if you can middle the full game. BOL!
If you can get 4 then it should not make a difference. 4 versus 3 is a push versus a loss or win worst case scenerio. I think NDSU wins by 8-15 personally. I bought a point because I love laying three or less in favorites whenever possible. I never let myself buy more than 1 point but I regularly buy 1 point in games I am highly certain of covering.
0
Quote Originally Posted by pdizzlesizzle:
Points here
If you can get 4 then it should not make a difference. 4 versus 3 is a push versus a loss or win worst case scenerio. I think NDSU wins by 8-15 personally. I bought a point because I love laying three or less in favorites whenever possible. I never let myself buy more than 1 point but I regularly buy 1 point in games I am highly certain of covering.
He is out 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in is foot. If that estimate is still correct he should be back anywhere between next week or the end of the month. Of course I cannot find any new updates but I assure you when he comes back it will be big news. Thankfully SDSU is already done playing NDSU until the Summit League tournament.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dimedimenickel:
when is braun coming back?
He is out 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in is foot. If that estimate is still correct he should be back anywhere between next week or the end of the month. Of course I cannot find any new updates but I assure you when he comes back it will be big news. Thankfully SDSU is already done playing NDSU until the Summit League tournament.
SDSU line down to 7 now at my book. Crazy. Have not heard of any injury so cannot figure out the line movement. Someone knows something. If it moves down to 6 I am going to make another play and make this game bigger than I anticipated going in. BOL!
0
SDSU line down to 7 now at my book. Crazy. Have not heard of any injury so cannot figure out the line movement. Someone knows something. If it moves down to 6 I am going to make another play and make this game bigger than I anticipated going in. BOL!
Line back up to -7.5 juiced so I am going to stop watching this and get some work done. I will be back later to answer any questios and add to my plays (if any). BOL!
0
Line back up to -7.5 juiced so I am going to stop watching this and get some work done. I will be back later to answer any questios and add to my plays (if any). BOL!
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
