I understand what you're saying. Remember, I'm not the one who labeled this game as a HUGE play, or lock, etc. I simply bet MSU thinking they win this game by more than the 3 points I had to give up last night. That's it. Sole possession of 1st place is at stake and who knows how PU will respond to the Byrd/Barlow incident? Vegas doesn't even know that answer.
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
I understand what you're saying. Remember, I'm not the one who labeled this game as a HUGE play, or lock, etc. I simply bet MSU thinking they win this game by more than the 3 points I had to give up last night. That's it. Sole possession of 1st place is at stake and who knows how PU will respond to the Byrd/Barlow incident? Vegas doesn't even know that answer.
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
Yes, we do have different perspectives on betting, which is fine. That's why I browse this forum. It's nice to hear different angles/opinions/perspectives. Like I said, IMO, which could be wrong, I think the loss of Byrd/Barlow is huge. Have you watched a lot of PU this year? There's nothing on that bench. If you're gonna factor in PPP, then maybe you should also factor in SOS, which MSU is 3rd and PU 30th, wouldn't those numbers impact the PPP. I don't feel like digging up the numbers, but I'd imagine that MSU's PPP against, has gotta be pretty damn impressive, much more so than PU. We can each dig up numbers to make any team look impressive, but the bottom line is now PU is missing their 4th and 5th leading scorers, so that can only hurt that PPP.
Maybe I'm wrong and I'm overvaluing the losses, but I've seen a lot of Purdue this season, and I think they're gonna be hurtin' without them. This play is one unit for me, like I said in my original post, "I hardly ever lay points on the road."
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Quote Originally Posted by cappingmaniac:
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
Yes, we do have different perspectives on betting, which is fine. That's why I browse this forum. It's nice to hear different angles/opinions/perspectives. Like I said, IMO, which could be wrong, I think the loss of Byrd/Barlow is huge. Have you watched a lot of PU this year? There's nothing on that bench. If you're gonna factor in PPP, then maybe you should also factor in SOS, which MSU is 3rd and PU 30th, wouldn't those numbers impact the PPP. I don't feel like digging up the numbers, but I'd imagine that MSU's PPP against, has gotta be pretty damn impressive, much more so than PU. We can each dig up numbers to make any team look impressive, but the bottom line is now PU is missing their 4th and 5th leading scorers, so that can only hurt that PPP.
Maybe I'm wrong and I'm overvaluing the losses, but I've seen a lot of Purdue this season, and I think they're gonna be hurtin' without them. This play is one unit for me, like I said in my original post, "I hardly ever lay points on the road."
Lots of good information on this thread. Somewhat similar to Ohio St. Mich St. game as far as numbers moving. O/U started at 109 moved to 118 and ended at 116. This number started at 134 and is now 129. Also 3 went to 5.5 now 4.5. Purdue at home in conference is allowing 47% FG and 37.5% 3 ball both not good numbers. Mich St. big men should absolutely dominate inside offensive rebounds for points and kick outs for 3's. Be surprised not to see at least 70 from Mich St. Purdue doesnt turn the ball over, home court, and still a big game tournament seeding. Regarding Barlow he would be a good 6th man for any team D.J. Byrd has been hot with 20, 24, and 13. Ohio St was a shootout Illinois sucks defensively and N.W. isnt the best. Both these players against Mich St. Byrd 2-11 and 1-4 3ball for 7 points Barlow 2-7 for 6 points. Mich St has been playing good to very good defensive lately and now will be playing a below average defense purdue team. Mich St. as mentioned should score. Vegas looking for a 67-62 game. I have bet over 129 and this is a very strong bet on my part. I respond to threads only when I can offer hopefully some valuable points. BOL to whoever you play but I have played over 129 in a large wager for me.
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Lots of good information on this thread. Somewhat similar to Ohio St. Mich St. game as far as numbers moving. O/U started at 109 moved to 118 and ended at 116. This number started at 134 and is now 129. Also 3 went to 5.5 now 4.5. Purdue at home in conference is allowing 47% FG and 37.5% 3 ball both not good numbers. Mich St. big men should absolutely dominate inside offensive rebounds for points and kick outs for 3's. Be surprised not to see at least 70 from Mich St. Purdue doesnt turn the ball over, home court, and still a big game tournament seeding. Regarding Barlow he would be a good 6th man for any team D.J. Byrd has been hot with 20, 24, and 13. Ohio St was a shootout Illinois sucks defensively and N.W. isnt the best. Both these players against Mich St. Byrd 2-11 and 1-4 3ball for 7 points Barlow 2-7 for 6 points. Mich St has been playing good to very good defensive lately and now will be playing a below average defense purdue team. Mich St. as mentioned should score. Vegas looking for a 67-62 game. I have bet over 129 and this is a very strong bet on my part. I respond to threads only when I can offer hopefully some valuable points. BOL to whoever you play but I have played over 129 in a large wager for me.
Michigan State -3....I hardly ever lay points on the road, and up until the Thursday night/Friday morning incident with Byrd and Barlow I was planning on playing Purdue in this game. But losing them is HUGE for the Boilers. They're not a very deep or talented team with these two guys, so I don't think they can overcome this v.s. a red-hot Sparty team. Plus, how is the team chemistry gonna be now for PU? The "Paint Crew" will be loud, but in the end the surperior talent and coaching advantage should win out. MSU by about 8 or so.
These fucks are so heartless.
Izzo needs a good halftime speech.
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
Season Record: 46 - 31
Michigan State -3....I hardly ever lay points on the road, and up until the Thursday night/Friday morning incident with Byrd and Barlow I was planning on playing Purdue in this game. But losing them is HUGE for the Boilers. They're not a very deep or talented team with these two guys, so I don't think they can overcome this v.s. a red-hot Sparty team. Plus, how is the team chemistry gonna be now for PU? The "Paint Crew" will be loud, but in the end the surperior talent and coaching advantage should win out. MSU by about 8 or so.
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
All dem numbers don't mean jack when MSU is surging into the tournament. They probably locked up a #1 seed today.
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Quote Originally Posted by cappingmaniac:
Alright we just have different perspectives on betting then. I don't bet on teams based on whats at stake. Hell, anyone could make an argument that PU needs this game more so that they have a better seeding for the NCAA tourney, right?
BOL on your play, by getting the -3 you have a great shot to cash. one possession is key in this game
Michigan St. is 28th in the country with a points per possession (PPP) of 1.079 and Purdue's PPP is 1.075 putting them in 32nd.
The only inconsistency with the numbers is that State has a PPP of .954 on the road and PU has a PPP of 1.109 at home. For those who don't analyze the numbers daily, that is quite the discrepancy
All dem numbers don't mean jack when MSU is surging into the tournament. They probably locked up a #1 seed today.
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