Posted:
#1
YTD: 13-7 (2-0 2-unit plays) +8.5 units
*Disclaimer: I rarely bet over 1-unit on any wager, thus making a 2-unit wager a huge deal. I rarely bet on games involving ranked teams or that would be seen on ESPN (I can discuss this further if you like). I don't wager on games every night and I rarely play more than one game a night (not because it is some rule I use, its just that there are rarely nights that two games meet my criteria to wager on). Just because I have a lot to say about a game, doesn't mean I am guaranteeing a win or am ultra-confident. On the contrary, sometimes I don't feel very confident about a play, but if it meets my criteria for a wager, I place it. Please don't come into this thread talking about "public play" this or "line movement" that. My analysis is based purely on the matchups and various other angles, systems, and analysis that I use.
Studying a bunch of boxing and mma right now and have a possible few more plays for college basketball so this write-up with be shorter than normal. Tonight, I am going with Oregon St. +7 over the Huskers tonight.
Now, I must preface this pick with saying that when I run this season's numbers, the line should actually be +8 and the probably of Oregon St. covering the +7 spread is actually 46%. What the numbers don't figure in are two key factors.
First, Nebraska is one of the most beat up teams in the country at the moment. Forward Quincy Cole is doubtful with a knee sprain (he tried to practice yesterday and couldn't). Guards Brandon Richardson, Eshaunte Jones, Sek Henry, and Lance Jeter are all questionable with a variety of injuries. All five of these players are either starters or guys who have averaged 10+ minutes per game this season. (Richardson, Henry, Jeter started two games back and the other two played 12:00+). Now Jones is going to play with planter fasciitis and then get a cortisone shot that will sideline him for 5 days. So even the guards that are banged up that WILL play are not going to be anywhere near 100%
Next, is the experience factor. When these two teams faced each other at Oregon St. last year, the beavers won by one. The beavers return 4 starters and 4 reserves from that team, Nebraska brings back 3 players that combined for 6 points (and two of them are banged up).
I also love the fact that Oregon St. runs a 1-3-1 defense that is tough to prepare for if you haven't faced it (and Nebraska has played only two inferior teams that just show a little 2-3 zone) and they have been limited in practice with all their injuries.
Oregon St. also has a height advantage on the inside and have wings that go 6'7" and close on shooters very fast. Oregon St. is holding its opponents to 38% from the field and 28% from the 3-point stripe. Oregon St. also shoots free throws better (71% to a very poor 65% for Nebraska).
Another small angle I use at this time a year is finals. Oregon St. is already done with their finals and Nebraska has finals week coming up. I always like to side with the team that doesn't have that to worry about. Lastly, even the quotes from the Nebraska players talk about what a tough game this will be especially with the injuries. I believe they will be prophetic and that this will be a low-scoring close ball game that I believe Oregon St. can win straight up on the strength of their defense and free throw shooting.
Please understand that when you back a team that runs a zone defense exclusively, you run the risk that the other team lights it up from 3-point land and then you have to throw out all the systems and angles as the team your backing has to play from behind. I don't believe that will happen today, in fact, I am betting it won't!
This play is not for the faint of heart, backing a Pac-10 team on the road is risky business and I understand why others would want to stay away or go with the Huskers. This game hits too many of my angles and systems to pass it up. Good luck with whatever you choose, feel free to discuss this game no matter side you like
Oregon St +7 1-unit on matchbook
*Disclaimer: I rarely bet over 1-unit on any wager, thus making a 2-unit wager a huge deal. I rarely bet on games involving ranked teams or that would be seen on ESPN (I can discuss this further if you like). I don't wager on games every night and I rarely play more than one game a night (not because it is some rule I use, its just that there are rarely nights that two games meet my criteria to wager on). Just because I have a lot to say about a game, doesn't mean I am guaranteeing a win or am ultra-confident. On the contrary, sometimes I don't feel very confident about a play, but if it meets my criteria for a wager, I place it. Please don't come into this thread talking about "public play" this or "line movement" that. My analysis is based purely on the matchups and various other angles, systems, and analysis that I use.
Studying a bunch of boxing and mma right now and have a possible few more plays for college basketball so this write-up with be shorter than normal. Tonight, I am going with Oregon St. +7 over the Huskers tonight.
Now, I must preface this pick with saying that when I run this season's numbers, the line should actually be +8 and the probably of Oregon St. covering the +7 spread is actually 46%. What the numbers don't figure in are two key factors.
First, Nebraska is one of the most beat up teams in the country at the moment. Forward Quincy Cole is doubtful with a knee sprain (he tried to practice yesterday and couldn't). Guards Brandon Richardson, Eshaunte Jones, Sek Henry, and Lance Jeter are all questionable with a variety of injuries. All five of these players are either starters or guys who have averaged 10+ minutes per game this season. (Richardson, Henry, Jeter started two games back and the other two played 12:00+). Now Jones is going to play with planter fasciitis and then get a cortisone shot that will sideline him for 5 days. So even the guards that are banged up that WILL play are not going to be anywhere near 100%
Next, is the experience factor. When these two teams faced each other at Oregon St. last year, the beavers won by one. The beavers return 4 starters and 4 reserves from that team, Nebraska brings back 3 players that combined for 6 points (and two of them are banged up).
I also love the fact that Oregon St. runs a 1-3-1 defense that is tough to prepare for if you haven't faced it (and Nebraska has played only two inferior teams that just show a little 2-3 zone) and they have been limited in practice with all their injuries.
Oregon St. also has a height advantage on the inside and have wings that go 6'7" and close on shooters very fast. Oregon St. is holding its opponents to 38% from the field and 28% from the 3-point stripe. Oregon St. also shoots free throws better (71% to a very poor 65% for Nebraska).
Another small angle I use at this time a year is finals. Oregon St. is already done with their finals and Nebraska has finals week coming up. I always like to side with the team that doesn't have that to worry about. Lastly, even the quotes from the Nebraska players talk about what a tough game this will be especially with the injuries. I believe they will be prophetic and that this will be a low-scoring close ball game that I believe Oregon St. can win straight up on the strength of their defense and free throw shooting.
Please understand that when you back a team that runs a zone defense exclusively, you run the risk that the other team lights it up from 3-point land and then you have to throw out all the systems and angles as the team your backing has to play from behind. I don't believe that will happen today, in fact, I am betting it won't!
This play is not for the faint of heart, backing a Pac-10 team on the road is risky business and I understand why others would want to stay away or go with the Huskers. This game hits too many of my angles and systems to pass it up. Good luck with whatever you choose, feel free to discuss this game no matter side you like
Oregon St +7 1-unit on matchbook
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