Posted:
#101
Quote Originally Posted by hadenfizzle:
Indiana first half ml
Indiana first half ml
loss 
30-14
68.18%
0
THE FIZZ!! 23-10 (69.70%) for the tournament
Posted:
#119
Congrats to those who tailed and made $ during the four days of the NCAA tournament. Four days of a season of approx. one hundred and twenty days.
Hmm, 4 days or 120, which is a realistic indicator of picks? Anyone who bets 10-12 picks every day is eventually going to have a few days of 60-70%. That's the Law of Averages, not winning handicapping. I recommend doing your own 'capping, but if you're going to tail someone then do the research. Be informed, know the real numbers, full picture, not small cherry-picked snapshots.
Did he buy someone's Tournament package as has been suggested? If people are making bank, it doesn't matter whose picks they are (though posting someone else's work as your own is a scumbag move.) But if you tailed over the past couple days and plan to continue you should care because the alternative is he's using his own picks and just got "Law of Averages lucky" for a few days. And the reversion to the mean is not going to be pretty. Based on his real numbers it's not good. In fact, it's bad. Very bad.
How bad?
Even with the post season record he is still only at 48%.
His multi-unit bets (the ones where he pretends to bet anywhere from $500 to $6,000), his "MAX PLAY!", "BET THE FARM!", "100% GUARANTEED WINNER!!!" "MAX, MAX, MAX!!!" etc. etc. etc. plays are even worse at 47%.
While bragging about his wins in the tournament he is, as he always does, conveniently not mentioning his other losses this season - he has almost TWO HUNDRED of them.
He recently claimed, "Remove Saturdays and I'M A GREAT HANDICAPPER, I win every other day of the week!" Truth is he has a losing record FIVE of the seven days.
How bad is he? He has a losing record in every category except one. First half pt spread bets? Loser. Full game? Loser. Parlays? Big loser, 12%. Second half? HUGE loser at 10% (yes, 10%.) Multi-unit bets? Loser, 47%. The ONLY category where he is above .500 is first half money line bets, at 53%, but when you factor in all the losses with the extra juice of -130 to -150 for avoiding the point spread, he's losing his Monopoly money there, too.
Fizbo and his aliases can deny this all they want, but the math doesn't lie.
He could hit at 100% over the final few games left and he still won't finish the season above 50%.
Caveat Emptor
I always wave back at the little Amazon guy. I feel like it's the courteous thing to do.
7
Posted:
#122
@VeritasAlways
Everything VeritasAlways wrote is 100% accurate. Fizz doesn't like people knowing the full truth and tries to brush it off (post 120 is a prime example of Fizz). He loses. We all do, but he wants to brag WHEN he gets hot. As pointed out, it usually happens only for a couple days.
Congrats to Fizz on that streak. It is great! But as VeritasAlways is trying to point out, it changes for Fizz. He is 11-8 since his bold I am "23-10" boast, Which, is not bad. But it is the norm for him
I am NOT knocking or "hating" on him. If you tail, more power to you. No one should tell you who to tail and who not to tail. Just beware when you do
Fizz - Hope you win! BOL
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
2
"the bus came by and I got on and that's when it all began"
Posted:
#125
Forewarned is forearmed:
"The reversion to the mean is not going to be pretty. Based on his real numbers - it's not good. In fact, it's bad. Very bad."
To those who looked at his real numbers, understood "reversion to the mean" and didn't follow him - good move, you didn't lose a lot of money (2-8 over his last 10 picks, 20%, a $100 bettor losing $680.00; more if you played his money line losses.)
To those who saw his numbers, understood and incorporated "reversion to the mean" into their bets knowing it was a great time to fade - congrats, you MADE a lot of money (he was 38% over his last 25 picks meaning you cashed 62% winners.)
To those who ignored his numbers and/or did not understand "reversion to the mean" and tailed him, well, sports betting is like life - you live, you learn from your mistakes
If you're going to tail someone, do your research.
Understand the law of averages and reversion to the mean.
"He has a losing record in every category except one, first half money line bets at 53%, but when you factor in all the losses with the extra juice of -130 to -150 he's losing his Monopoly money there, too."
And with his tournament losses on first half money lines now included with his regular season losses, he has achieved perfection - a losing record in every category.
In other words, bad. Very bad.
Forewarned is forearmed.
Caveat emptor.
I always wave back at the little Amazon guy. I feel like it's the courteous thing to do.
1
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