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THE GRIND III NCAA CBB 2013-14 '11- 51% '12 - 51%

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Posted: #101
PGA - thanks for looking out but that was for the USF game at USF.

I stayed away today as well though.
 
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Posted: #102
2-2 for -.2 units.

USC teased that they might hang around for a bit but ASU...I was WAY off.

Overall at 48-28-1 for +25.5 units.

Butler +13.  1 unit.  I get Ok State is good this year but this line got out of hand going from 5 to 13.  Butler should be able to keep it as close as Purdue did if not closer.

Wake Forest -4  2 units.  OK, now that we know where USC really lies, I dont see how Wake doesn't win by at least 4 possessions.  They played KU tough and SC was definitely outclassed by Villanova.

Drexel +5.5.  2 units.  Drexel has been playing teams tough, only losing to Pac-12 leaders Arizona and UCLA.  Bama looked decent against Duke but their body of work so far says they will probably lose this one outright.

Marquette - 4.  1 unit.  Despite stumbling against Ohio State and ASU, the Golden Eagles have more talent than GW who had trouble beating Maimi.

Georgia Tech +1.5.  1 unit.  Mississippi has played garbage to date.  I'm thinking with their first real test they get smacked in the mouth.

Memphis -3.  1 unit.  Everyone on Memphis and line dropping.  Sharps may like LSU but I haven't seen a decent team from LSU since Big Babys team in the 2006 Final Four.  Memphis battle tested in their game against Ok State and while they lost by 20, every team after them has to look like slow motion for Memphis.

Penn State +3.  1 unit.  More Lavin fade.  Always fade Lavin in big games against decent teams.

Possibly other plays...


 
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Posted: #103
Creighton -5.  3 units.  Huh?  These guys just blasted a competent ASU squad and this game isnt in San Diego.
 
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Posted: #104
Kansas -4.  2 units.  This line is too short for Wiggins.  Villanova is going to wish they were playing SC again.  Kansas has blasted Duke, Iona, and Wake while Nova really hasn't played anyone.
 
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Posted: #105
Missouri -11.  1 unit.  Poor Nevada is going to be run again.

 
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Posted: #106
F'ing Creighton and Kansas killed me today.  Thought those were sure things.  Good thing almost everything else came through.

7-3 on the day for +2.4 units.

Overall 55-31-1 for +27.9 units.
 
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Posted: #107
Great !!! I love your consistence
 
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Posted: #108
Wala - thanks.

Kansas -12.  1 unit.  I think they bounce back in a big way.  Opposition talent level just dropped considerably.

Pacific +1  1 unit.  Despite the absolute collapse versus Oregon, the fact is they played extremely well against a top flight team for a half.

Not much else I really like today.  Lots of big spreads between middle of the pack talent.
 
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Posted: #109
OK Kansas, I will no longer believe in you.

1-1 for -.1 units.

Overall 56-32-1 for +27.8 units.
 
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Posted: #110
Kentucky -6.  2 units.  Despite the Michigan State setback to start the year, the Widcats have looked as good as they are supposed to be.  I just cant see the Friars not losing by at least 4 possessions.

Oklahoma State -5.  2 units.  They already played this and Memphis got run out of the building.  Line must be low because of the trouble Butler gave them, who'd I actually rank higher than Memphis.  This shouldn't be close.

Butler +3.5  1 unit.  I dont see it.  LSUs claim is barely losing to UMASS and losing to Memphis handily.  Butler almost came back on Final Four sure thing Ok State.  They at least hang tough.

North Carolina -6.5.  1 unit.  Roy better get his s@it together quick.  After the loss to Belmont at home, that looks to be the case.

Wichita State +2.  1 unit.  Shockers just putting teams away, even tough environments like Tulsa.  Saint Louis outgunned here and the Shockers have way more talent than dispatched teams Bowling Green and Old Dominion.  Still I'll respect the home floor and hold back the units a bit.

Oregon State +2.  1 unit.  DePaul hasnt impressed, losing handily to Texas, Wichita, and Southern Miss, all decent teams.  Oregon State is decent enough.

Belmont +3.  1 unit.  VCU is the trendy pick but Belmont took down UNC on the road.  Even if they arent up to usualy par, thats still an impressive achievement. At home, I dont see them stumbling.  VCU and Smart didnt impress in their blowout loss to FSU and loss to GTown.

Washington State +3.5  1 unit.  Cougars get the benefit of having lost to Butler and Gonzaga,  Better than their record suggests as their crush of Purdue indicates.

Marquette PK  2 units.  I still dont know what happened in that Creighton game with SDSU.  Back to reality for the Aztecs to make things right with the world.

Wavering on if to play Miami game.  Lots of plays already...
 
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Posted: #111
Miami +8.5  1 unit.  ASU the better team but Miami has the bigs to keep it close.  Got a couple extra points by waiting.
 
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Posted: #112
10 plays again....lets get another 7-3 day.
 
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Posted: #113
Adding another that just came out.

Pacific -1.5  1 unit.  Sure they struggled with Cal Poly but....Cal Poly crushed their opponent North Dakota by 27.  Pacific led Oregon by 7 at half when they played them, ND was crushed from the opening tip.  Just better talent.
 
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Posted: #114
Dammit.  Another play.

Drake -5.  1 unit.  Only loss was by 4 to really good St Marys team.  Drake handled Fresno, CSUB lost to Fresno.  I cant see CSUB having an equal level of talent.
 
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Posted: #115
I don't get it. Marquette now +3.5. I guess Im the crazy one.  SDSU was down 12 to Creighton!  Ill add 1 unit to Marquette +3.5.
 
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Posted: #116
Ok State and Marquette killed me today.  I'll definitely respect SDSU and Memphis going forward.

12 plays but wasn't able to take advantage of the early wins.  Once again lost the bigger bets as well.

6-6 on the day for -2.9 units.  

Overall  62-38-1 for +24.9 units.

Through 101 plays and the first month of the season in, that works out to 62%

NBA at 58% after first month and 108 plays

CFB at 62% after 103 plays

Tire fire of NFL at 46%.  Luckily, only 70 or so plays there so less damage overall.
 
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Posted: #117
Just one play.

Vandy +8.5.  1 unit.  Worried a bit that the game is in Texas but Texas' only loss came to an only above average BYU squad.  Vanderbilt has played Butler and Providence close, teams with better talent than Texas in my opinion.  Hoping its too many points.
 
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Posted: #118
1 play, 1 win for 1 unit.

Overall 63-38-1 for +25.9 units.
 
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Posted: #119
Bigger card for tomorrow.  Jumping on early lines now.

Illinois +1.  2 units.  Tech's 5-3 record is misleading.  All 3 losses are to quality opponents.  The Illini arent necessarily elite and maybe not as good as their 7-0 record suggests but they came from behind at UNLV and throttled a decent Bradley team.

UCLA -11,  1 unit.  Ill stay behind Alford as long as he keeps hammering mediocre teams.  

Colorado -2.5  2 units.  Rams should get worked here.  Buffs have played better quality opponents to tune them for this rivalry game and has PG Spencer Dinwiddie who is one of the best PGs in the Pac-12.

North Texas +18.5  1 unit.  How is BYU going to cover by 18 when they cant play defense?

Syracuse -5.5  1 unit.  Orangemen have been stellar this year and at home, even versus Indiana, I see them winning by 4-5 possessions.  Syracuse has dispatched Baylor, Minnesota, and Cal with relative ease on a neutral floor.
 
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Posted: #120
Belmont +7.  3 units.  I mean, cmon....Belmont beat UNC AT North Carolina and hung tough with VCU until the end.  Middle Tennessee got blasted by Florida, the only real competition they've faced.  ML upset for those who play them....

UMASS -5  2 units.  Another c'mon.  Massachusetts has won three straight against furious competition.  CMU garbage the bed versus Kentucky.  Its all about recruiting talent.

Iowa -7.  2 units.  Tri-cmon-fecta.  ND has played absolute grabage in its 5-1.  Irish $ always comes in to lowe rthe line.  Meanwhile, Iowa has been battle tested by Villanova and Xavier on a nuetral floor.  at home?  HHAHAHAHAHA

Lots of units.....
 
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Posted: #121
This years trend has been:

1.  Play big card
2.  Crush early games
3.  Get great leads in late games
4.  Watch those leads collapse to finish even or one win above.

This obviously beats losing my behind and I am still doing great for the year but this is still killing me.  Would like another big week to just break things open.

Today had the Illinois game in the bag, North Texas was hanging tough for 30 minutes, Iowa had a big lead on ND...even if I lost UCLA I was looking at 7-1.  Those three games flip and I finish 5-3.  Went from +9.8 units to +4.5 units.  Got the big bets for a change.

Called the Belmont dog road win.  Hope someone saw this and bet the ML as I suggested.

So today 5-3 for +4.5 units.

Overall 68-41-1 for +30.4 units  


 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by uclalumnus:

This years trend has been:

1.  Play big card
2.  Crush early games
3.  Get great leads in late games
4.  Watch those leads collapse to finish even or one win above.

This obviously beats losing my behind and I am still doing great for the year but this is still killing me.  Would like another big week to just break things open.

Today had the Illinois game in the bag, North Texas was hanging tough for 30 minutes, Iowa had a big lead on ND...even if I lost UCLA I was looking at 7-1.  Those three games flip and I finish 5-3.  Went from +9.8 units to +4.5 units.  Got the big bets for a change.

Called the Belmont dog road win.  Hope someone saw this and bet the ML as I suggested.

So today 5-3 for +4.5 units.

Overall 68-41-1 for +30.4 units  


that Illinois game was a killer...9 mins and only 2 points scored....

 
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Posted: #123
Chaos - just ugh.  

My friends and I were going nuts.  We needed ONE extra basket...

Tough loss but lets get em tomorrow.

Looking at lines now...








 
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Posted: #124
Charlotte -8.5  1 unit.

Harvard -3.5  1 unit

Richmond -3  1 unit

Michigan State -9  1 unit

Purdue -1  1 unit

Locking in lines.  Write-ups why tomorrow but Im beat tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #125
Charlotte -8.5  1 unit.  This is not the Davidson of the tourney the past two years.  They have been absolutely blown out by each good team they have faced.  By 31 to Clemson, 23 to Virginia, New Mexico 21, and Duke by 34.  Ouch.  Charlotte has looked solid, taking down K State and Michigan on neutral floors.  Im surprised the line is moving the other way.

Harvard -3.5  1 unit.  This line has moved up a bit to -5 from last night so glad I grabbed it.  I think NE can give Harvard a challenge, having played FSU, Charlotte, Georgetown, and VCU, even beating Georgetown but they were behind every game in the 1st half save FSU who shot 30% for the game.

Richmond -3  1 unit.  Richmond has better A10 talent (than the Colonial, thats all) and 8 of ten players returned.  They also have big time experience this year playing and hanging tough with UNC at Chapel Hill.  WAM play home games in a gym.  No really.

Michigan State -9  1 unit  How much rope does Roy Williams get?  This program is in trouble, Im guessing because Roy is coasting.  Hes a crappy coach but was always a great recruiter but if that is slipping...Spartans will show UNC's true colors and really put it to them.

Purdue -1  1 unit  Another line that has shot up since I snagged it.  BC has played some great tough opponents (UMASS and UCONN - lost both) but Purdue is no slouch and is at home.  Ronnie and Terone Johnson should be enough.
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