thirsty thursday

 

@Contrarian21

 Damnnnn.. you gone run that 10K or punk out? Man up!

@UnrankedChamp

 checkin mom and dads stashes to scrape the $$$$ together 

good luck pederson.  

@pederson16

 great stuff pederson16

@pederson16

 I need to have a drink with you ?? Love it

You can win w well thought out logic, and you can win by reading the tea leaves so to speak. Both angles have merit. But slamming someone else’s approach adds zero value. 

@pederson16 we have similar styles and pretty sure look at the same data, I always enjoy your setups for games whether I agree, play or sit out. Keep it coming and thanks again. 

Crickets from Contrarian….

i have COC in my 8 point  teaser but have a bad feeling Monmouth comes to play today. 

You called it. 

UCLA -4½ -118 UCLA @ Arizona State Spread - Game Risk $ 1180.00 Win $ 1000.00 .............................. not going to write any fairytales here ...... only facts direct from Kenpom ........... no doubt about it, there's some quality things to like regarding the Sun Devils defense, physicality, depth, experience, and they definitely have a good home court advantage with the students dressing up and what not behind the curtain of laughter, but UCLA has seen it all before and is just too consistent on OFF and DEF and much better shooting squad. Shooting travels and ASU is 30% from 3, 50% from 2 and 67% from FT line for ranks of 304th, 173rd, and 285th nationally while UCLA shoots it at 37%, 52% and 74% for ranks of 47th, 99th, and 96th nationally. In a game that will likely be in single digits, you def want the better OFF team that has significant adv on FTs. Defense also travels and you are getting the better coached team with Cronin and the better DEF eff team with UCLA who is ranked 4th. AZ St has had several scoring droughts this year of 5+ minutes and look for UCLA to handicap them tremendously as UCLA Def takes away the FTs and the 3balls as they are top 10 nationally in not allowing opponents to get to the FT line or making 3balls. Conversely, UCLA is ranked 5th in nation with 62% of points coming from inside the arc and I again will take the better shooting team that takes high % shots the majority of the time than the lesser Off team taking uncomfortable shots from distance and with a historic poor offensive output. good luck in whatever your plays, unless you are a contrarian. ............................. Charleston gonna need to shoot better than 22% to cover this big number. Hopefully they come out of the locker room with a whole lotta pride and enthusiasm.

@pederson16

 all in ucla-4

Coll Of Charleston -12 -110 Coll Of Charleston @ Monmouth Spread - 2nd Half Risk $ 550.00 Win $ 500.00 .......................... trusting my gut on this one and chalking the first half up to bad variance...... hopefully they start the first 5-8 minutes on a 20-5 type run.... hopefully

@winners, never go all in...... never...... c'mon man..... these $1k plays of mine are still small to mid, you know that! only $3k and above are BIG type serious push most of your stack in plays... be smart

Tough call on C of C. They just seem like the Warriors. Hang around hand around hang around and then pull the game out late with dramatics. Give the home team a show. But definitely tough for a big spread. I think this conference is kinda tough to cap. I think it was UNCW that legit lost straight up at home to shit William and Mary. Tough stuff. I hope the 2H hits for you. Opposite of you in the UCLA/ASU game. But you are probably right. I am just going to it and want the points.

Nice W!

Devils led most of the game.  Ucla took over final minutes nice call 

@contrarian, do you like cabernet?

Thanks @markeymark, def why I cap age, experience, continuity, and most importantly FT %. Any team can have a good half, but 2 halves much more likely to take quality into consideration and eliminate variance. 

@pederson16

 Nice call on UCLA . I had them locked in early then almost got swayed out from looking into so many biting at ASU . I just didn't see it . Appreciate your post !! 

2-1 and another positive $ day. Moving on to the weekend. Probably won’t have any Friday plays and I am averse to Saturdays massive slate so likely see y’all Sunday or Monday. Good luck.

@pederson16

 I respect the shit out of u. Wish I saw ur ucla play. I put 200 on them livr and got it at 1.5 thought it was a no Brainer. Real shit if I'd have saw ur post before now I'd have thrown a G on that bitch lol. Good hit bro tyga Campbell baby