Posted:
#1
Sides: 54-47, +7.30
Totals: 52-30, +23.30
DNP: 79-66
Kent State/Ball State
Ball State should get a nice emotional lift here getting back into conference play where they haven’t been beaten yet. The problem is they’ll be going up against a similar defensive style that Morehead State brought to the table and only allowed 48 points in this spot just a few days ago. The game will definitely be a bit faster, as Kent State doesn’t really like to slow the style like Morehead did. Both teams offenses really rely on penetration and both teams defenses will allow it to an extent. I don’t really like backing teams coming off slow paced and tough physical defensive games, but I think this is a spot where Ball State can benefit from not only a solid home showing, but benefit from going up against a similar style in back-to-back meetings. Looking ahead, I’d be shocked if any team from this half of the MAC West is favored over any team from the MAC East. Not sure I want to back Ball State in this spot, but we should see some more points scored. Ball State’s scored 60 in every game since December aside from the two meetings with opponents from the OVC (Morehead & EIU – both snails). The scary part about pointing to the over? Ball State scored 42 in last year’s beating.
Western Kentucky/Florida International
After starting out 0-4 in the conference, Western Kentucky has now won two games in a row against two of the worst defenses in the country. Now, they get the worst overall defense in the conference in Florida International. I’ve commented on this FIU defense before. As a team, they have a great amount of offensive talent, but they don’t care to play defense and that’s not going to change until another offseason comes. Their latest four game stretch, which were all losses, they have yielded 87, 79, 78, and 86 and none of those teams play even close to the same style WKU brings in, which is going to be a faster ballgame with many more shots. As for WKU this year, their offense has struggled immensely, but all they need is a bit of confidence and we should get a good outing from them tonight having seen they have now played two of the worst defenses in the country and have put up some points. Their defense was pretty good last time out, holding Troy to 58, but I’m going to mark that as a bit of revenge from the first meeting this year and a bit of a motivational edge to come out and compete a bit better. In both meetings last year, WKU put up an 88 and a 81. FIU’s offense was dismal last year, hasn’t really gotten much better this year. But don’t let that fool you. Both teams will want to run, and both teams are built to do so. The offensive #’s haven’t been the greatest, but both teams have the talent to push this over. Furthermore, the lack of PG for WKU has sped up their offense even more. They’re being forced to get out and go regardless of the situation.
North Texas/UL Lafayette
Can sort of take the above notes and copy and paste them here. This North Texas team was a mirror image of FIU a few years ago. Now, they’re led by extremely gifted seniors who can score with the best of them. If this team wins the conference (pretty much on the line Saturday when they go to Denver), then they will have the opportunity to make some noise come March. The big problem with this team is that even though they are veteran and experienced, they don’t play a lick of defense. If they had kids who wanted to at least try their hand at defense, they’d win this conference with ease. With that said, UL Lafayette really isn’t anything special defensively, but they’re in a nice spot here. North Texas has a pretty big lookahead to the matchup with Denver on Saturday. Along with that, North Texas has looked flat out awful against faster paced teams on the road. They allowed Troy to beat em while putting up 89, they allowed MTSTU to beat em, while putting up 78, Sam Houston State put up 94, and Kansas put up 93. Their road victories come against snails. Therefore, they have yet to go on the road and beat a team that likes to play a similar style as them. I can’t explain it, but realistically what it comes down to is that to win on the road, you have to play at least some sort of defense. This is a third straight home game for ULL, they won the first two against snail paced teams in Centenary and UL Monroe and they put up 94 and 84. With that confidence carrying over, there is a pretty good chance this Lafayette team looks like an all-star squad tonight if UNT looks past this one and continues to try and beat teams offensively...
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