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#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 60-41, +87.15
March Leans: 35-37
Wisconsin/Syracuse
The focus on this match-up really relies with how well Wisconsin shoots the ball. Nothing more, nothing less. You have a really good three-point shooting team against a team that will play nothing other than zone. I could stop there, but there really isn’t any fun involved in that. So, let’s break this puppy down a bit further. First off, there is a really good article on the Wisconsin swing offense here (insert link here). It’s a very well written article, it’s long, but there are some really good well thought out stuff so read the entirety. Of importance first and foremost is how good the offense is utilized, but not only that, it’s something that just doesn’t work all that well against a tall and athletic zone. No ball screens, and very little movement when you’re not covered up. Now, all of these stats and data were derived from essentially one game, but it is the focal point of the offense and has been for years. If you get into the reading, you’ll find that Wisconsin passed up multiple shots, and over 60% of their shots came after passing up three different scoring options and close to 60% of their plays had at least four passes. This is a team that does not want to score quickly, they want to wear you down with great ball movement. Now, this game was against a man-to-man a majority of the time, so against a zone, I would hinge on the fact that there will be even more passing going on in this one. More importantly, in those 58 plays, Wisconsin had some decent offensive rebounding, otherwise that 60% would be quite a bit higher. Getting away from the stats and the swing offense, taking a look a bit more at the game yields a few things. For starters, Wisconsin struggled immensely against the zone when Vandy went to it. Do I think they struggle tonight? It’s certainly possible, but having a few days to prep for the zone isn’t all that bad of a scenario. If Wisconsin has a weakness, they are undoubtedly not being able to run their offense against a zone, a lack of offensive rebounding, and their ability to get to the foul line. Their ability to shoot the 3 really crosses all of them out. Yes, they can’t run the offense. This doesn’t change, they’ll move the ball like crazy and more than likely take a jump shot. Yes, they don’t offensive rebound all that well, but Syracuse is one of the worst teams in the country in terms of rebounding the ball from a defensive standpoint, and that was with Melo in the lineup. Yes, Wisconsin doesn’t attack (something I hate in teams when they face off against a zone), but again, this team’s going to be shooting three’s all night. Thus, Wisconsin’s offensive output comes down to the three ball. I think it’s really that simple. Defensively, there really isn’t a thing that I cannot like about Wisconsin. They’re physical, they defend exceptionally well, and if you’re going to beat them, it’s not going to be with dribble penetration, it’s going to be with the outside jump shot. With Syracuse, offensively, they’re about as good as they come, but they do have some weaknesses. No attacking, they settle for jumpshots (part of the reason I faded them with UNC Asheville in game #1), and they just aren’t the same team without Melo. Yah, they beat Asheville, but it wasn’t pretty. Yah, they beat Kansas State, and that game wasn’t pretty at times and also was done against a team missing one of its top performers. Simply put, they haven’t been tested as of late, and they sure haven’t played a style like this all that often. I’ve hit on the zone enough, defend it well out top, lose people on the wings and in the corners, and can’t rebound for the life of them. In terms of pace, and here is where I’m pointing to the total, there is no reason this game is played anywhere close to 60 possessions. I don’t think Wisconsin lets this game go anywhere near that for a couple reasons. One, they’re methodical. While they pass, pass, pass, pass against a man-to-man, it’s probably going to get worse on the zone. And two, they just haven’t played many high possession games to begin with, and it’s been much slower against zones. Against a zone defense this year, Wisconsin has averaged just over 62 possessions a ball game, but it’s a bit lopsided b/c you have two Iowa games (which they coincidentally lost), and a Bradley game in there two. Both of those teams are fast paced, full court pressure style teams, something I cannot put Syracuse into the category of. Take those three teams out, and we fall at around an average of 55 possessions. This game is probably not going to be pretty. I think it has the possibility of a fast start, the nerves kick in, both teams get away from what they really want to do, but by game’s end, if this one is anything but a snail, I’d be shocked. Wisconsin using up clock against a zone (something they have sucked at) and Syracuse against a tough defensive style, something they just aren’t familiar with and don’t have the outlet of Melo to go to in tough circumstances as the clock runs down...
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Thanks for ur time and efforts.
today my friend.
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