Total Play Alert

YTD: 2-1 +1.1 units

I'm giving my last finals tomorrow so I'm hoping to be able to post a little more regularly now.  Hoping to continue building on my best start of the ncaa hoops to date.  If you have sent me a PM, I'll start wading through them again on Thursday, very sorry for the delay.  I'm on Wofford/Tulane over 122.5 and very quickly here are a few reasons why:

Vegas has this game pegged as a 3-pt spread so late game foul shooting could come into play as well.  As for a side I like Wofford as well and might have a play on them too after more study but I am just having a VERY hard time seeing anyway this game doesn't get into the 60's which would be an easy over.  Good luck with whatever you decide. 

1-unit (for now) on over 122.5 Wofford/Tulane

ty bol 

GL luck, I have a lean on the Over also in this game

bol buddy 

nice write up, BOL 

Great write up GL

Nice write up KP

With you on this one.  And I like Wofford too.

BOL

Good to see you again, KP. GL with the play.

I work at Wofford and just went out to see Tulanes early morning shoot around.  I've been waiting for a good spot to fade Wofford this season and I think this game is an ideal spot after covering against Davidson and Citidal.  Davidson is by far the game that Wofford players get up for the most all season and the biggest crowd they will draw, a pitiful 1,400.  Wofford lost 6 of their best players from last year and has little depth inside.  The one thing I noticed about Davidson was that they didn't have a lot of size or strength inside and I think that played to Woffords advantage.  Just by taking a quick glance at some of Tulanes players I think this game will be won in the post.  

I like this afterreading the write up, good research!

Nice write up

tcrouch great write up im n greenville and will b heading to the game just to c what the greenwave have i was thinkn that wofford wouldnt b big enough to stay n the game and i luv the over as tulane shots the ball good and usually wofford does at home

Glad to see you are back KP.  Great insight on the game and I look forward to seeing you on here more often.

Always enjoy your stuff.

Had this one circled, love the play. Thanks Kine

Already up to 125.5 at 5 dimes.

k.p. g/l

Excellent stuff KP...you sold me!

WOW, my line for the O/U is up to 125.5... probably going to pass. Thanks for the tip... Hope u hit KP!

KP you still like it at 125.5?

Thank you for your post, please don't be offended that I completely disagree.  Here is why I disagree:

When you use the term "waiting for a chance to fade" it implies there is some inherent "overvaluing" of a team where a line would be inflated based on past performance.  This isn't the case with this game. 

The clearly overvalued team is Tulane, a team that was 13-17 last season and 3-13 in conference.  A team that had ONE victory on the road over a team in Kenpom's TOP 337 teams last year!  A team that now is 9-0 only because they have LITERALLY played the easiest schedule in the entire country this season.  They are coming off their "super bowl" last game against georgia tech and am now facing their first road test of the entire season.  The fact that they opened as a three point road favorite is hilarious.  This, by definition, isn't a good opportunity to fade Wofford as they are the clearly undervalued team here.

Next, to your post play point.  Tulane is ranked 239 (out of 345 teams) in effective height.  Please remember that these stats were compiled against the worst schedule in the country.  Effective height is defined by defensive stats such as block percentage, defensive efficiency and a few other stats.  As to the offense, Tulane scores BY FAR its fewest points through 2-pt baskets.  Their highest percentage of points come from 3's, their next highest comes from free throws (and their post players average only 7 combined attempts per game) so the majority of their free throws come from their guards.  The lowest percentage of points come from 2-pt baskets.  Tulane is also in the bottom 150 teams in offensive rebounding to boot.  Tulane might well win this game and cover but a statistical analysis of the numbers indicate that it is VERY unlikely that it will be because of post play.

Again, Tulane could certainly cover this game, anything can happen - but you are getting the worse of the line and laying 3 on the road is "negative" value to be sure. 

Amazing info KP.  Thanks.  over 125.5 is my play

up to 127 on 5d