I NEVER suggest taking the worst of the line. I have 2 units on 122.5 at 5dimes and also have one unit on Wofford +3. If the total climbs much more I might try to middle the game for extra unit.
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Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:
KP you still like it at 125.5?
I NEVER suggest taking the worst of the line. I have 2 units on 122.5 at 5dimes and also have one unit on Wofford +3. If the total climbs much more I might try to middle the game for extra unit.
I work at Wofford and just went out to see Tulanes early morning shoot around. I've been waiting for a good spot to fade Wofford this season and I think this game is an ideal spot after covering against Davidson and Citidal. Davidson is by far the game that Wofford players get up for the most all season and the biggest crowd they will draw, a pitiful 1,400. Wofford lost 6 of their best players from last year and has little depth inside. The one thing I noticed about Davidson was that they didn't have a lot of size or strength inside and I think that played to Woffords advantage. Just by taking a quick glance at some of Tulanes players I think this game will be won in the post.
I definitely like your over play, but would probably lean Tulane in this spot -3. The crowd will be a non factor in this game.
Thanx for the knowledge
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Quote Originally Posted by tcrouch:
I work at Wofford and just went out to see Tulanes early morning shoot around. I've been waiting for a good spot to fade Wofford this season and I think this game is an ideal spot after covering against Davidson and Citidal. Davidson is by far the game that Wofford players get up for the most all season and the biggest crowd they will draw, a pitiful 1,400. Wofford lost 6 of their best players from last year and has little depth inside. The one thing I noticed about Davidson was that they didn't have a lot of size or strength inside and I think that played to Woffords advantage. Just by taking a quick glance at some of Tulanes players I think this game will be won in the post.
I definitely like your over play, but would probably lean Tulane in this spot -3. The crowd will be a non factor in this game.
You must of ben right about the line being to low since its up to 126 or more,still a low #,but have we lost all value?Guess thats up to each to decide if they want to play for 2 more baskets, GL KP
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You must of ben right about the line being to low since its up to 126 or more,still a low #,but have we lost all value?Guess thats up to each to decide if they want to play for 2 more baskets, GL KP
You must of ben right about the line being to low since its up to 126 or more,still a low #,but have we lost all value?Guess thats up to each to decide if they want to play for 2 more baskets, GL KP
Hey bud, again I'm not a fan of taking the worst line, its a losing strategy in the long run even if it wins tonight. Only value elsewhere I see is Wofford +3 and Umass moneyline I'm on both but for less
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
You must of ben right about the line being to low since its up to 126 or more,still a low #,but have we lost all value?Guess thats up to each to decide if they want to play for 2 more baskets, GL KP
Hey bud, again I'm not a fan of taking the worst line, its a losing strategy in the long run even if it wins tonight. Only value elsewhere I see is Wofford +3 and Umass moneyline I'm on both but for less
Thank you for your post, please don't be offended that I completely disagree. Here is why I disagree:
When you use the term "waiting for a chance to fade" it implies there is some inherent "overvaluing" of a team where a line would be inflated based on past performance. This isn't the case with this game.
The clearly overvalued team is Tulane, a team that was 13-17 last season and 3-13 in conference. A team that had ONE victory on the road over a team in Kenpom's TOP 337 teams last year! A team that now is 9-0 only because they have LITERALLY played the easiest schedule in the entire country this season. They are coming off their "super bowl" last game against georgia tech and am now facing their first road test of the entire season. The fact that they opened as a three point road favorite is hilarious. This, by definition, isn't a good opportunity to fade Wofford as they are the clearly undervalued team here.
Next, to your post play point. Tulane is ranked 239 (out of 345 teams) in effective height. Please remember that these stats were compiled against the worst schedule in the country. Effective height is defined by defensive stats such as block percentage, defensive efficiency and a few other stats. As to the offense, Tulane scores BY FAR its fewest points through 2-pt baskets. Their highest percentage of points come from 3's, their next highest comes from free throws (and their post players average only 7 combined attempts per game) so the majority of their free throws come from their guards. The lowest percentage of points come from 2-pt baskets. Tulane is also in the bottom 150 teams in offensive rebounding to boot. Tulane might well win this game and cover but a statistical analysis of the numbers indicate that it is VERY unlikely that it will be because of post play.
Again, Tulane could certainly cover this game, anything can happen - but you are getting the worse of the line and laying 3 on the road is "negative" value to be sure.
I definitely agree with you on your analysis of the total. I of already laid my bet on the over 123.5
I'm yet to see Tulane play all year so I can't really argue against any of your points, but I have seen Wofford play in person a lot this year and would find it hard to believe their's many DI teams with less depth inside. I guess we will find out shortly.
Since the game isn't on TV and I will be at the game I will give comeback to give any insights I picked up if I see anything of significance.
Best of luck on your plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Thank you for your post, please don't be offended that I completely disagree. Here is why I disagree:
When you use the term "waiting for a chance to fade" it implies there is some inherent "overvaluing" of a team where a line would be inflated based on past performance. This isn't the case with this game.
The clearly overvalued team is Tulane, a team that was 13-17 last season and 3-13 in conference. A team that had ONE victory on the road over a team in Kenpom's TOP 337 teams last year! A team that now is 9-0 only because they have LITERALLY played the easiest schedule in the entire country this season. They are coming off their "super bowl" last game against georgia tech and am now facing their first road test of the entire season. The fact that they opened as a three point road favorite is hilarious. This, by definition, isn't a good opportunity to fade Wofford as they are the clearly undervalued team here.
Next, to your post play point. Tulane is ranked 239 (out of 345 teams) in effective height. Please remember that these stats were compiled against the worst schedule in the country. Effective height is defined by defensive stats such as block percentage, defensive efficiency and a few other stats. As to the offense, Tulane scores BY FAR its fewest points through 2-pt baskets. Their highest percentage of points come from 3's, their next highest comes from free throws (and their post players average only 7 combined attempts per game) so the majority of their free throws come from their guards. The lowest percentage of points come from 2-pt baskets. Tulane is also in the bottom 150 teams in offensive rebounding to boot. Tulane might well win this game and cover but a statistical analysis of the numbers indicate that it is VERY unlikely that it will be because of post play.
Again, Tulane could certainly cover this game, anything can happen - but you are getting the worse of the line and laying 3 on the road is "negative" value to be sure.
I definitely agree with you on your analysis of the total. I of already laid my bet on the over 123.5
I'm yet to see Tulane play all year so I can't really argue against any of your points, but I have seen Wofford play in person a lot this year and would find it hard to believe their's many DI teams with less depth inside. I guess we will find out shortly.
Since the game isn't on TV and I will be at the game I will give comeback to give any insights I picked up if I see anything of significance.
Great read bud. Didn't get a good enough line for this total, but will be rooting for ya. Love the anaylsis and angles on how you look at totals and sides, BOL as always!
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Great read bud. Didn't get a good enough line for this total, but will be rooting for ya. Love the anaylsis and angles on how you look at totals and sides, BOL as always!
I'm at this game and have to say I couldn't be less impressed with Tulane's offense. There players are looking at eachother like they don't know the plays and I was completely wrong about them having an advantage inside. Wofford was a couple 3's from opening this one up in the first half.
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I'm at this game and have to say I couldn't be less impressed with Tulane's offense. There players are looking at eachother like they don't know the plays and I was completely wrong about them having an advantage inside. Wofford was a couple 3's from opening this one up in the first half.
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