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Trying to Make it Back-to-Back-to-Backl Double Digit Unit Days

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Posted: #1
Okay, I lied.  Yesterday's OT in the Stan/OSU game and Jazz/Suns game kept me from having my second double digit unit night in a row. 
Instead, I finished up about 8-9 units on posted plays.

So after Monday's catastrophe (-17 units), Tues (+11.5) and Wed (+8.5) bring me back in the black about +3 units.

I looked at a few of today's games and to be honest, I'm not really feeling all that great about today.  I may have 2 or 3 1H or FG plays, but I'll mostly be focusing on the 2H.

If you're tailing, today might be a good day to stick with 2H system plays ONLY.
 
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Posted: #2
Sounds good - nice day yesterday that could have been a great day. Actually coaching practice and then in my bowling league, so will have no real ability to get your 2nd half plays today - dam!
 
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Posted: #3
Glad to see ya Joe
 
what do you think about Mizzou/Memph Over 66.5 1h?
 
 
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Posted: #4
Locked in my first play of the day:

James Madison +4 1H (2.5 units)

I'm seeing something in the numbers.  I think JM's defense keeps them in the game for most of the night.  I love that this line moved against me giving me the hook for the 1H.

Here's the 3 BIG reasons I like this play:
1) JM hasn't been down by more than 3 pts after 1H to only one team in their last 12 games.
2) In their last 10 games, OD has led by more than 3 pts after 1H just three times.
3) These two teams saw each other twice this season and JM had the lead after the 1H both times.

I don't think the FG line moves to -8 so if you like the play, lock it in.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Ools:

Sounds good - nice day yesterday that could have been a great day. Actually coaching practice and then in my bowling league, so will have no real ability to get your 2nd half plays today - dam!


Here's what you do.  I text my 2H plays to Cowboy Gangsta, have him forward the text to you. 
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by chrisku5:

Glad to see ya Joe
 
what do you think about Mizzou/Memph Over 66.5 1h?
 


It's a toughie... I started looking at it and the numbers are telling me different stories.  I'll keep looking at it and share if I come up with anything.
 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:

Locked in my first play of the day:

James Madison +4 1H (2.5 units)

I'm seeing something in the numbers.  I think JM's defense keeps them in the game for most of the night.  I love that this line moved against me giving me the hook for the 1H.

Here's the 3 BIG reasons I like this play:
1) JM hasn't been down by more than 3 pts after 1H to only one team in their last 12 games.
2) In their last 10 games, OD has led by more than 3 pts after 1H just three times.
3) These two teams saw each other twice this season and JM had the lead after the 1H both times.

I don't think the FG line moves to -8 so if you like the play, lock it in.

interesting trend on this situation:

CBB | JAMES MADISON at OLD DOMINION
Play Against - Any team (JAMES MADISON) off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
170-103 since 1997.  ( 62.3% | 57.2 units )
16-7 this year.  ( 69.6% | 10.0 units )

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



Here's what you do.  I text my 2H plays to Cowboy Gangsta, have him forward the text to you. 

I have requested him as a friend -- I will pm you my number in case he doesn't get me as a friend by the time i'm on the road -- if you fwd to him that would be great. I can place bets on my phone, but can't view these pages.

 
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Posted: #9
Can you say money line - Pitt and Ct tonight? (based on last 11 years)
 
"One thing that really stands out in round 3 is that outright upsets are extremely rare once a certain number of points are laid.  Any supporters of Xavier, Purdue, Arizona, or Gonzaga this year who are considering making a money-line bet on their team, might want to consider giving that money to charity or buy your spouse something nice with it.  Since 1998 in the Sweet 16, underdogs of more than 5 points have a straight-up record of 2-37.  By the time you read this article, Missouri might fall into that Titanic-like group as they are 4.5 underdogs at the time of writing this piece."
 
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Posted: #10
A few other noteworthy sweet 16 round tendencies ats:
 
- ACC team is the higher seed in a game - 86% under
- spreads of 3.5 - 6: overs 61%, dogs 62%
- line at 150+: dogs 64%, unders 60%
 
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Posted: #11
GOOD INFO OoLS...BOL
 
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Posted: #12
goodluck. how can we get your second halfers?
 
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Posted: #13
Tear it up joe
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by EVANTORR:

goodluck. how can we get your second halfers?


I post em in the thread.  Just look for them as the games go into halftime.  Typically, about 50% of the games will fit the system.
 
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Posted: #16
Joe,
May be too much work to figure out, however, to your point abt stickin to your 2Hs - do you have an idea of what your non- 2H picks winning % is, for, say - since Monday (or any period/your game and 1H picks)? The main reason I ask, is, for me I love tailing you, but at the same time I'm trying to cut back on the 'action junkie' aspect of my tailing. Hopefully this makes sense to ya.
 
 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by burnetto57:

Joe,
May be too much work to figure out, however, to your point abt stickin to your 2Hs - do you have an idea of what your non- 2H picks winning % is, for, say - since Monday (or any period/your game and 1H picks)? The main reason I ask, is, for me I love tailing you, but at the same time I'm trying to cut back on the 'action junkie' aspect of my tailing. Hopefully this makes sense to ya.
 
 


I understand.  I usually let everyone know if I'm taking something for action.  That's probably when you shouldn't follow.

I would suggest following anything that I have 2 units or more on.  But you may want to go smaller on these than my 2H plays.  Anyway, those plays with 2 units or more are the plays I feel comfy with and usually do well in.  Also, I typically do better with totals than sides.

With that said, I feel rather comfy with my only side play today, hence the 2.5 units. 
 
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Posted: #18
Joe it looks like J Mad is missing a couple of players now,check the injuries list on covers,2 guys gone for unknowed reasons and the other is going to play but not close to 100%.
I took JM+6 yesterday in a 3 team with ND under and Ore St+3,if these guys are not playing thatys why the line is going up. 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Joe it looks like J Mad is missing a couple of players now,check the injuries list on covers,2 guys gone for unknowed reasons and the other is going to play but not close to 100%.
I took JM+6 yesterday in a 3 team with ND under and Ore St+3,if these guys are not playing thatys why the line is going up. 


When I saw the line movement, I checked injuries.  My guess is that James plays and Moore has been out the last four games and it hasn't really affected the team as much as one would guess.  I think JM's defense will be key for them to stay close and I think the way these guys play, it's more of a team oriented def, so I think they'll be okay to start the game.
 
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Posted: #20
JOE, it's HARD to dig yourself out of a hole like that.. you've done a helluva job of doing just that...
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by AtlFader:

JOE, it's HARD to dig yourself out of a hole like that.. you've done a helluva job of doing just that...


Appreciate it.  Just trying to stick to the game plan.  Tonight's plan is to be as selective as possible as these total are confusing me a little bit.  I'm thinking I might be able to find one 1H play that I like, two tops.


 
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Posted: #22
good luck tonight joe...   your 3 teamer was hella money yesterday, so money i decided to make a 1u 4 teamer!   haha
 
03/26/2009 @ 06:35 PM CBB [811] TOTAL o142-110
(MISSOURI vrs MEMPHIS U)
03/26/2009 @ 06:35 PM CBB [812] MEMPHIS U -4-120 (B+½)
03/26/2009 @ 04:05 PM CBB [814] CONNECTICUT -6-120 (B+½)
03/26/2009 @ 04:00 PM CBB [1697] 1H JAMES MADISON +4-110
 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by joe_shmoe:



Appreciate it.  Just trying to stick to the game plan.  Tonight's plan is to be as selective as possible as these total are confusing me a little bit.  I'm thinking I might be able to find one 1H play that I like, two tops.


I'm liking that nova/duke under -- but i'm sure it will climb, maybe as high as 150 by tip-off

 
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Posted: #24
Andrey Semenov last game Vs. ODU..
                           vs. Score Line O/U Min Pts Ast Reb
1/28/09 OLDOM L 74-80 L -1 O 128.5 32:00 16 0 5
Juwaan James
             OLDOM L 74-80 L -1 O 128.5 13:00 0 2 2
 
Hopefully James in will cancel out Semenov out!
 
 
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bol
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