Posted:
#1
2011-2012: 301-248 (54.8%, +36.8 units)
I lost money on Monday night but it was one of the most exciting nights of the entire CBB season. This Tuesday card is not particularly appealing and I remember getting slaughtered on this same day last year. Still running cold right now as all the toss-ups are going the other way. My "Play of the Year" on Loyola against Siena helped recoup some losses but is not counted on my overall tally. As of now, only locked in on Richmond +7 (posted in 3/4 thread), Charlotte, and Rutgers. Some thoughts on the card...
Richmond +7 @ La Salle
I've had a lot of success with the A-10 this season thanks to following my Hawks and the rest of the league in great detail. Home court has been a major asset around the league and the overall parity of the conference has relegated some really solid teams to the middle of the pack. I'm going against the home court here, though, despite backing La Salle on Saturday at home against St. Bonaventure. In terms of personnel, these teams are somewhat similar. La Salle often utilizes a four-guard lineup with Duren, Pettis, Galloway, and Mills. In essence, they're akin to a poor man's version of Missouri, relying heavily on the long ball and utilizing "big guys" who are only about 6'8 and primarily score off of penetration by the guards (a la Ricardo Ratliffe). Pettis is similar to Kim English in his ability to present matchup issues for a bigger and slower "4" man. The four-guard set allows them to control pace and spread the floor. They shoot threes en masse and hit at a very high clip (Mills, Galloway, Duren all 40% or higher). The brilliance of the four-guard alignment is that it inevitably creates mismatches for the defense as a bigger, slower defender is highly-susceptible to being taken off the dribble. But Richmond has the antidote for this problem with a matchup zone defense that is as fundamentally sound as any in the country. Anchored by the A-10's second-leading shot blocker, Darius Garrett, the Spiders clog passing lanes and contest threes while providing constant help-side defense. In the first meeting, back on February 8th in Richmond, La Salle buried 10/17 from distance...and still lost. The Spiders shot just 39% from the field but had their way inside with a 45-24 rebounding advantage. Considering that Richmond never outrebounds anyone, that is a staggering statistic. The Explorers converted just 16/39 from inside the arc as Garrett swatted away 6 shots in just 24 minutes of action. Richmond simply dominated the paint with Garrett and 6'6, 275 pound load Derrick Williams, who went for 22 and 11. It's certainly true that La Salle plays better basketball on its home court, but can we count on them shooting 10/17 from distance again? Probably not, especially against a defense that allows the 6th fewest points via the 3-ball in the entire country. Richmond coach Chris Mooney is a phenomenal X's and O's guy and makes adjustments as well as anyone in the league. His team is peaking at the right time and drew a very favorable matchup in the opening round.
Villanova @ Rutgers +2
There's no team I hate more than Villanova (ok, maybe Temple) but I have nonetheless backed the 'Cats numerous times this year with mixed results. There's so much pure talent on this team but they lack an on-court leader. In the past, Jay Wright has been able to rely on guys like Reynolds, Fisher, Ray, Foye, etc to hold things together. No one on this year's team has filled that role, including Maalik Wayns. I'm slightly fearful that Wayns, now playing at full-strength after several weeks of scuffling through injuries, will carry Nova on his back, but I'll roll the dice on the same soft and fragile Nova team showing up to the Garden tomorrow night. What I can count on with certainty, though, is a balls-to-the-wall effort from Mike Rice and Rutgers. I'm convinced Rice is going to make Rutgers a powerhouse within the next several years thanks to an unforgiving, relentless attitude and a bottomless pit of talent in the NY/NJ area. Like Nova, his team is made up of largely of underclassmen who have played to the level of the competition this season. They staggered through the first half against Nova last week at the RAC before mounting a furious second-half comeback, pulling even a few times but were unable to make enough shots to steal the win. There's familiarity with the Garden on both sides and I would anticipate a slightly Rutgers crowd. Nova has a large alumni base in the area, though many of the fans have become disenfranchised by this uncharacteristically poor season. Getting Rutgers as an underdog on a 5-day turnaround from the loss at the RAC is an ideal spot for me. Motivation is going to be at a season-high for the Knights, who had their season ended on an awful call in the Garden last season against St. John's, and I'll take my chances that Nova doesn't can 10/18 treys playing in a difficult shooting arena. Rutgers had an awful shooting night in last week's meeting (35% overall, 5/23 from distance) and still remained within a possession in the closing moments.
Others...
Eastern Washington @ Montana
First thing that jumped out at me was Montana with a 7-day layoff since beating Weber in Missoula to claim the outright title and home court through the Big Sky tournament. Tinkle's teams haven't been affected in the past, though. Last year, they beat Weber State by 17 following a 9-day layoff and blasted N. Arizona the year prior following a 7-day layoff. Rust doesn't seem to be an issue, which could lead to some points being put on the board. Jump-shooting is typically the main issue with an extended layoff, but the Grizz don't rely much on the outside shot and have an explosive penetrator in Will Cherry to initiate the offense. I backed Montana in the first meeting of the season largely because of Eastern Washington's incredible fouling problem. The Eagles lead the nation in opponent's FTA/FGA and committed 26 fouls in the December 30th meeting in Missoula. Montana gets to the line at a solid clip (#85 FTA/FGA) and convert from the stripe (71.5%). On the other side, much of this game is predicated on how Eastern Washington shoots the 3-ball. They truly live and die from the perimeter and are capable of hanging with anyone in the league if the shots are falling. Montana is an excellent all-around defensive team but focuses its attention primarily on preventing points around the basket (#11 2PT FG defense). In a strange twist, EWU has faced Idaho State three times in the past 11 days, allowing point totals of 78, 64, and 75 to the offensively-challenged Bengals. This is a flat-out bad defensive team that needs to create turnovers to have success. Montana isn't going to give them those opportunities, having committed just 21 total turnovers in the two meetings this season. Not locked in yet but close to a play at 133.5.
Other Leans:
Pitt-St. John's Under 134.5, Valpo -2.5
I lost money on Monday night but it was one of the most exciting nights of the entire CBB season. This Tuesday card is not particularly appealing and I remember getting slaughtered on this same day last year. Still running cold right now as all the toss-ups are going the other way. My "Play of the Year" on Loyola against Siena helped recoup some losses but is not counted on my overall tally. As of now, only locked in on Richmond +7 (posted in 3/4 thread), Charlotte, and Rutgers. Some thoughts on the card...
Richmond +7 @ La Salle
I've had a lot of success with the A-10 this season thanks to following my Hawks and the rest of the league in great detail. Home court has been a major asset around the league and the overall parity of the conference has relegated some really solid teams to the middle of the pack. I'm going against the home court here, though, despite backing La Salle on Saturday at home against St. Bonaventure. In terms of personnel, these teams are somewhat similar. La Salle often utilizes a four-guard lineup with Duren, Pettis, Galloway, and Mills. In essence, they're akin to a poor man's version of Missouri, relying heavily on the long ball and utilizing "big guys" who are only about 6'8 and primarily score off of penetration by the guards (a la Ricardo Ratliffe). Pettis is similar to Kim English in his ability to present matchup issues for a bigger and slower "4" man. The four-guard set allows them to control pace and spread the floor. They shoot threes en masse and hit at a very high clip (Mills, Galloway, Duren all 40% or higher). The brilliance of the four-guard alignment is that it inevitably creates mismatches for the defense as a bigger, slower defender is highly-susceptible to being taken off the dribble. But Richmond has the antidote for this problem with a matchup zone defense that is as fundamentally sound as any in the country. Anchored by the A-10's second-leading shot blocker, Darius Garrett, the Spiders clog passing lanes and contest threes while providing constant help-side defense. In the first meeting, back on February 8th in Richmond, La Salle buried 10/17 from distance...and still lost. The Spiders shot just 39% from the field but had their way inside with a 45-24 rebounding advantage. Considering that Richmond never outrebounds anyone, that is a staggering statistic. The Explorers converted just 16/39 from inside the arc as Garrett swatted away 6 shots in just 24 minutes of action. Richmond simply dominated the paint with Garrett and 6'6, 275 pound load Derrick Williams, who went for 22 and 11. It's certainly true that La Salle plays better basketball on its home court, but can we count on them shooting 10/17 from distance again? Probably not, especially against a defense that allows the 6th fewest points via the 3-ball in the entire country. Richmond coach Chris Mooney is a phenomenal X's and O's guy and makes adjustments as well as anyone in the league. His team is peaking at the right time and drew a very favorable matchup in the opening round.
Villanova @ Rutgers +2
There's no team I hate more than Villanova (ok, maybe Temple) but I have nonetheless backed the 'Cats numerous times this year with mixed results. There's so much pure talent on this team but they lack an on-court leader. In the past, Jay Wright has been able to rely on guys like Reynolds, Fisher, Ray, Foye, etc to hold things together. No one on this year's team has filled that role, including Maalik Wayns. I'm slightly fearful that Wayns, now playing at full-strength after several weeks of scuffling through injuries, will carry Nova on his back, but I'll roll the dice on the same soft and fragile Nova team showing up to the Garden tomorrow night. What I can count on with certainty, though, is a balls-to-the-wall effort from Mike Rice and Rutgers. I'm convinced Rice is going to make Rutgers a powerhouse within the next several years thanks to an unforgiving, relentless attitude and a bottomless pit of talent in the NY/NJ area. Like Nova, his team is made up of largely of underclassmen who have played to the level of the competition this season. They staggered through the first half against Nova last week at the RAC before mounting a furious second-half comeback, pulling even a few times but were unable to make enough shots to steal the win. There's familiarity with the Garden on both sides and I would anticipate a slightly Rutgers crowd. Nova has a large alumni base in the area, though many of the fans have become disenfranchised by this uncharacteristically poor season. Getting Rutgers as an underdog on a 5-day turnaround from the loss at the RAC is an ideal spot for me. Motivation is going to be at a season-high for the Knights, who had their season ended on an awful call in the Garden last season against St. John's, and I'll take my chances that Nova doesn't can 10/18 treys playing in a difficult shooting arena. Rutgers had an awful shooting night in last week's meeting (35% overall, 5/23 from distance) and still remained within a possession in the closing moments.
Others...
Eastern Washington @ Montana
First thing that jumped out at me was Montana with a 7-day layoff since beating Weber in Missoula to claim the outright title and home court through the Big Sky tournament. Tinkle's teams haven't been affected in the past, though. Last year, they beat Weber State by 17 following a 9-day layoff and blasted N. Arizona the year prior following a 7-day layoff. Rust doesn't seem to be an issue, which could lead to some points being put on the board. Jump-shooting is typically the main issue with an extended layoff, but the Grizz don't rely much on the outside shot and have an explosive penetrator in Will Cherry to initiate the offense. I backed Montana in the first meeting of the season largely because of Eastern Washington's incredible fouling problem. The Eagles lead the nation in opponent's FTA/FGA and committed 26 fouls in the December 30th meeting in Missoula. Montana gets to the line at a solid clip (#85 FTA/FGA) and convert from the stripe (71.5%). On the other side, much of this game is predicated on how Eastern Washington shoots the 3-ball. They truly live and die from the perimeter and are capable of hanging with anyone in the league if the shots are falling. Montana is an excellent all-around defensive team but focuses its attention primarily on preventing points around the basket (#11 2PT FG defense). In a strange twist, EWU has faced Idaho State three times in the past 11 days, allowing point totals of 78, 64, and 75 to the offensively-challenged Bengals. This is a flat-out bad defensive team that needs to create turnovers to have success. Montana isn't going to give them those opportunities, having committed just 21 total turnovers in the two meetings this season. Not locked in yet but close to a play at 133.5.
Other Leans:
Pitt-St. John's Under 134.5, Valpo -2.5
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