Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 51-53, +1.90
December Leans: 53-53
Mike Brey with a week of prep coming into the year was something crazy like 44-8 outright I think I posted last year (career). Half of the losses came at Freedom Hall where they haven't won in years, and half of the wins came as underdogs at far superior competition. This year he's 1-1, loss to Indiana on a neutral. I read a piece on the guy years back about how he preps (which made me look into the angle), and it's hard to avoid the fact that this guy is one of the best in the business when he gets time to dissect. Hate the revenge (Pitt actually hasn't won here in 5+ years), but Pitt hits the road for the first time without Woodall and just haven't had the necessary time to fix what happened at home against Wagner without him with the Holiday mixed in. How important is he? Well, he's their most efficient scorer, best perimeter shooter, and most importantly, the guy assists on 46% of his team's baskets. My only concern here is the Notre Dame defense, but facing an offense without it's main cog pretty much crosses that off. With the lack of preparation because of the game with Wagner, Pitt's in a rough spot. For the past few years, Brey and Notre Dame have shown the ability to go up and down, or use the "burn" in those instances, so Pitt's prepping for more than one style possibly, another reason that Brey's been good with the extra days of practice. Four of Notre Dame's five losses have come against teams that like to get up and down, and in that scenario, they just don't have the offense to compete. The lone loss that came against the snail in Georgia was on the back-to-back spot so I can throw that out. Pitt's been a snail especially without Woodall, and they just aren't efficient enough offensively without the main option. If you ask me who the better team is, I probably say Pitt 99 out of 100 times. But with the health issues, and the additional preparation time for Brey here, I'm going to take a chance on the home pup who has been exceptionally good at home in recent years.
In the other lean, if it hasn't been noticed already, I will fade Minnesota all year long against any team that has better guards if the # is right, and this would be one of those spots. I'm only leaning b/c I fear an Illinois letdown after the rivalry game, but assuming the Illini show up and defend, I'm not sure how they drop this one. These matchups have been defensive based in recent years and flat out boring (have attended a few and fell asleep), with prolonged stretches of the game without a shot. Really shouldn't see any change here, but the one thing that scares me about pointing to under the total is the fact that these two teams usually play later on in the season. With the switch up in how the B-10 has scheduled games this year, the familiarity in the way each team preps might be a bit different not having other matchups against B-10 competition to go off of. Want to lean under, just hate the quirky spot. Actually looked at the under for a while, and convinced myself the over was the more appropriate side because of the intangibles (scheduling, recent styles of competition), so not leaning either. Tubby can't play slow and expect scoring from the guards, and Weber would be a moron not to speed it up with the advantage he has with the guards in the open court. Should be a consistent theme this year with Illinois, take advantage in transition so you don't have to look lathargic in the half court. Yup, I just pulled a 360 with my thoughts on that total. Flip a coin.
2* Notre Dame +1.5
Lean: Illinois -5
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