Completely understandable and I can agree with Pitt being a better team, healthy or not. It's just that the better team doesn't win the game all the time, and you have to look for those spots that tend to fit that category. Just making Notre Dame a pup in this spot doesn't make sense. They will probably be dogged three times the rest of the year at home:
1/14 vs Uconn (probably a +1 to +3)
1/21 vs Syracuse (probably a +6 to +8)
2/4 vs Marquette (probably a +3 to +5)
They aren't dogged much more in those games if my projections are correct, and they're getting a team here that just hasn't figured out the scheme without Woodall. Maybe they'll show up tonight and put a beating on Notre Dame, but they've had trouble against Brey's teams in past years, even when they were healthy. Yes, it's different players and a different year, but it's still the same scheme.
It's really a fade on Woodall here. As I mentioned, he's not the best scorer, but he sets everyone else up b/c he's a threat from anywhere. He assists on 46% of his team's buckets. Think about that for a minute. Half of their scoring this year comes when he passes the basketball to someone. You just can't replace people like that.
For instance, the most important player to any team in terms of assisting the basketball this year lies in Utah, and as Josh Watkins comes in at a 54% clip. Did you happen to miss the game he was not a part of? They were a 9 point dog to Cal State Fullerton and they were beaten by 31, on their home court. Granted, Utah blows, but a Pac-12 team a home pup of 9 points to CS Fullerton? And they lose by 31? Then they hit the road to BYU and only lost by 19 with him. Just goes to show you how important he is. Now he's only one player, and on a bad team, it's not really that great of a comparison, but the next 9 in line for the top 10 in this category are really in the same boat. Lose them, and the team just isn't going to look the same.
Check out what the Frazier kid has done for Penn State this year. If they lose him, they'll struggle to score 30 a night. Jake Odum at Indiana State? He's the main cog. Lose him and their season goes in the gutter. Kendall Marshall at UNC? I think we saw last year how important his role was within that offense. Scott Machado at Iona? No doubt in my mind that Iona isn't the same type of team without him.
Really, anyone and everyone who thinks this Pitt team is the same team that they've had on their minds for the past few years isn't really comprehending the type of loss Woodall is. What would they be with Woodall here, a -5 or -6? It's like taking Jay Cutler from the Bears and asking Matt Forte to run the ball more and thinking they will be alright. Yah, Forte will get more touches, but the defense doesn't have to guard the threat of having a quality QB who can throw the ball. In this instance, yah, Gibbs will get more touches running the PG slot, but his bread and butter is having Woodall pass him the ball on the perimeter, not running the offense.
I may have looked into the game a bit too much, and it's more a fade on Pitt than anything. I think the loss to Wagner was more a product of just not being efficient offensively, rather than a look ahead. Again, that's my opinion, but keep in mind, this is a Pitt team that DEPENDS on it's offense to run fluidly. They play slow, every possession counts, and when you're missing your main guy, that takes a humongous hit. If they play fast, and they have people to fill the role, then it's not too much of a worry. Sort of like the Tennessee game. They played a Tennessee team who gets up and down at times and a team that can't defend a team of fifth graders and struggled to win by 5. Pitt was able to slow that game, and take Tennessee right out of it by doing so and found ample opportunities to score in the half court. But in this offense, at the pace this game will be played at (which should be slow as ND likes playing slow in the BE), against Brey, at home, with the extra time to prep, it's really just an awkward spot to back Pitt and put trust into a team that's struggled in this spot, even when healthy in past years.
GL
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nropp g/l 2day
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