2017 Record: 3-4
The pick:
Tulane +6 (-120) over East Carolina
(It should get to 6 on it's own if you wait.)
1. East Carolina should not be laying this number to anyone in their conference right now... not anyone.
And why's that?
First they have no head coach. Jeff Lebos left to get what appears to be season-ending hip surgery leaving his assistant Michael Perry to coach the team. It's just conjecture, but when I see coaches leave to get surgery in season (much like Coach K) it screams "My team is going down and I don't want this on my resume".
I've watched the games since Lebos departed. What was once a 9-8 team is now 10-13 with a squeaker of a win over Tulsa at home 69-66 they wanted to give away.
Just giving ECU the eyeball test while watching the games, they are a disaster (not like they weren't before). The offensive sets are completely out of whack, usually deferring to a heaved up 3. I'm still fairly amazed they won the Tulsa game.
While the team is eighth in the country in FG Defense @ 38.2% (it's lone bright spot), it simply cannot score (61.1 PPG, 38.7% FG, 28.4% 3's) which all rank dead last in the conference. Teams that can't score better play world-class D and this team has defensive lapses as expected. They've failed to score 50 in 5 conference games.
Add to this the fact they have also lost their leading scorer BJ Tyson. His stats show you the struggles this team has putting the ball in the hoop when he's one of the team leaders in several categories: 11.9 ppg, 39.2% FG; 67.3 FT%.
Down a head coach. Down a leading scorer. 1-5 since both departed and now they are laying a nice chunk of points at home...to anyone.
I'll take Tulane under those circumstances.
2. Tulane is brutal but they've been competitive of late.
Tulane is a horrendous 4-18 on the season. BUT they battled Temple neck and neck last game eventually falling 71-79 and covering as 8.5 pt dogs.
They lead UConn for virtually every second of their game before Temple, until UConn went on a 14-0 run with 4 minutes remaining falling 78-68 and covering as 11.5 pt dogs. So their play against two somewhat average teams has been refreshing.
East Carolina? Their last game they lost 86-46 to SMU and also beat ECU 75-44 in their previous match-up. This is a team Tulane almost lead at the half in their first match-up 34-32. When you see a team totally die on the court in a game where they can make a name for themselves, even for a half, it says something.
Tulane can only beat 2 teams right now: ECU and South Florida. They know this. If a win is coming, it has to come here or against SFU. While the team's record screams "We are Terrible" they had a learning curve with Dunleavy coming in to coach and suffered mightily early. They are still suffering having lost 12 of 13. I will say like their offense in transition as do I like the fact they are 3rd in the conference in FT% (something we need to cover here). Tulane, given it's struggles is hungry for any sort of win and have showed it the past two games. ECU is ripe in that regard.
I just don't see ECU blowing anyone out under their current circumstances. And if they aren't blowing anyone out, they are playing close games. And if they play close games, we needn't win, just get inside a number. And this number isn't chump change with a team like ECU (despite the fact they are 9-4 at home). Tulane has ZERO home court advantage so taking every point on the road here is more than welcome.
3. The spread
How many squares are looking at this line and saying "I get to fade a 4-18 team on the road only laying this number?" Sign me up! Vegas has to want the public on the ECU side. You have to believe, beyond what I am writing here, that Tulane can make this a game. And if they make it a game we can cover. They can move the ball. They have scorers (Frazier, Reynolds, Morgan) There are growing pains with this team but those pains are fading little by little. A win here will go a long way towards that and they know it. Tulane needs to do one this better to cover: hold on late. That's it. They haven't done that in too many games but a team like ECU, who can't score with consistency, offsets their late game jitters and will allow them to stay in it.
We faded Tulane against St. John's long ago but when the smoke clears, there are times to back the very teams you made money fading. This is one of those times. Loving a very under-the-radar game with a light line and a dog play fading the public. All classic capping recipes for success.
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