UNC/DUKE? WTF is Vegas Thinking?

What are your thoughts here? Vegas has this at a pick however most simulations have this at Duke -4.

GO UNC

Public will be all over duke. Line is right heels win by 5

Tar heels all the way, it will be the hardest they have played all year long, then bet against them in the acc tourney

the bait is on the hook, its in the water
and the fish are biting
theyre reeling all the duke $ in
but i could care less

i hate them both

UNC is clearly the better team. They will be licking their chops to get revenge tomorrow.. Both teams play hard but the better team will prevail.. UNC wont choke this time

I hate Duke with a passion, but I'll take my chances with them as a home dog

Iowa!!!!

Leaning towards Duke at home, will look tomm

I thought the same thing Duke all the way to the bank moneyheyhey. I hate both teams, but there is no way in the world this game is a pickem. Fire it up and I repeat fire it up on this one and you'll be heading to the window to cash the ticket after the game.

I think the opposite of this post. I think people are gonna jump all over duke at home not giving any points and that is what vegas wants!. I will take UNC!

I think the average person is going to remember how UNC absolutely dominated the last game especially inside the paint and pretty much considered the last minute Duke comeback as being lucky and a fluke. I think there is alot more public money on unc than you think

They were thinking

There is NO upside playing this one, there are a ton of games much easier to cap.  Sit back & enjoy!!

Im going to try and not be an a** like I always feel I should be when dumb clowns start up a thread on something they don't even understand....and with that said:

Mr. Roundballer,

I think you have misconceived what has happened here. To start, this personified "Vegas" that everyone talks about, knows what He is doing. Technically, you should be talking about oddsmakers as they do exactly what their title says...make odds.

Where you went wrong here is that you said Dr. Vegas wants money on UNC, but is rather quite the opposite. Oddsmakers use sociology and psychology to know that Most people would think "revenge factor" mostly due to how UNC was dominating until the end of the game and lost by a late-in-the-game shot. AND Duke beat UNC ON THEIR COURT.

Here's where the clueless "WTF?!?!" comes in that so many posters use when they see a line they can't believe. NOW we have Duke, who has already beat UNC on their court, playing infront of the home crowd AND GETTING POINTS?!?! WTF?!?!

YES, they ate getting points, at home, vs a team they already beat. Which means that Dr
Vegas is trying to pull MORE MONEY IN ON DUKE than they they would have if they came out with Duke being the favorite at -4. If UNC were GETTING points in this spot, money would flow like the Niagara Falls compared to the piss-stream of people who would still take Duke laying the -4 chalk.

So Yeh,...they aren't "trying to steer money away from Duke and onto UNC," but quite the opposite.

The second thing Id like to point out is that your simulations of Duke -4 usually have a heavy basing on past results during the season. These SIMULATIONS didn't WATCH the game unfold. These Simulations just had stats plugged in throughout the season with final scores of previous matchups weighed pretty heavily into the prediction. The formula would be:

Duke winning by 1 AT UNC = Duke winning by MORE with home-field advantage.

The difference between a simulated prediction score and the lines that oddsmakers put out are simulations are based strictly on data while oddsmakers have to account for player's emotions and gambler's opinions.

TBallgame has it exactly right here. People always want to bet on 2 really good teams playing each other, which Ive never understood. Either of these teams could blowout each other on any given night. But this game seems to be the SUPERBOWL of the end of the regular college basketball season. Most are NOT betting these Big Games because they have a really good lean and think their chances are good, but usually because they just simply HAVE TO...it's a nationally-televised game that most every college BB fan will be watching. I feel people Have to bet games like this, the Superbowl, or the BCS championship just because it is SUCH A BIG GAME. People wanna come away from the Superbowl picking the winner.

Look at the BCS Championship where 90% of the people thought it was going to be low-scoring, tight game with either this team or that team winning by a field goal....and then they bet it. Really?!?! They state that it's gonna be a CLOSE-GAME and then they put something stupid like "LSU LARGE!" at the end of their post?!?!

Sports bettors sometimes need to step back sometimes and ask, "WTF am I doing?!?!"

Remember,...there used to be a time before our Lord Vegas ruled us via the drug known as gambling. We used to enjoy games strictly because they were games. We used to get all excited for a game such as a UNC/Duke Rematch because it was going to be an awesome game to watch.

What many people on this forum have LOST is their enjoyment of actually watching a good game with out the HIGH of having money on the line. No more sitting on the edge of our seats because it was a good game and coming down to the last seconds. No. Now its sitting on the edge of our seats, sweating the game out because you could win money or lose money.

Like TBallgame said...there are better games to cap and better places to put your money than a pick 'em game vs two great teams. Sit back and ake a break you adrenaline junkies. This could turn out to be one hell of a game to watch!

Wow TexasD! You wrote that with your mobile device? Your fingers must be tired!!!!!  SO SORRY THAT I GOT IT WRONG! FIND SOMETHING BETTER FOR YOUR TIME THAN TAPPING YOUR LITTLE BITTY FINGERS ON YOUR PHONE FOR AN HOUR AND A HALF BASHING ME! GROW THE FUCK UP!

i love unc by 8 here.  with you on marquette ml action.  like vmi but the over there and colorado state. good luck.

I wasn't ripping on you bud. Just explaining how you had it backwards. No biggy bro! Like I said, I was trying NOT to be an a**. I dis however transition into how I feel people bet games just to bet vs betting to make money, but technically wasn't really talking about you, but people in general. But that's just my OPINION on how gambling can grasp people like a drug. That's pretty much the idea of casinos. It's controlling gambling, making educated guesses in sports, having solid betting strategies, and most of importantly you have to have good money management to make profit in either a casino or sportsbook.

Like I said brother, I wasn't ripping on you. Just pointing out your mistake so that you don't throw your money somewhere you really didn't want. 50% will win in this game and 50% will lose; that's a fact and a fact on All games vs the spread. I wish you luck brother. Get it man!

And yes, I do most of my posts from my phone and no it doesn't take much effort on the part of my fingers, plus voice-to-text helps.

I like your Marquette pick, as Ill be at the game today!

Best of Luck

TexasD I don't know if I follow your logic here but mad respect to youfor typing all that shit on a mobile BRAVO you get the fastest thumbs award

and I totally disagree. this is easiest game out there today.