I see so many posts with players selecting 2 teams- ever notice the better cappers are picking 3 games?
Its because they know the odds:
if you pick 1 game, the odds of you winning are 50%- you win 100 or lose 110-Simple its 50%
if you pick 2 games, you have a 25% chance of winning. You must go 2-0 or you lose. ( unless you bet different amounts ) but the odds of winning are still 25%
if you pick 3 games, your odds of winning are back up to 50% ( you go 3-0, 2-1 1-2 o-3 Simplified ) 50% chance of having a winning night-
No one should ever be picking an even number of game ( 2, 4, 6 ,8) unless they want to gauranteed a losing night
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I see so many posts with players selecting 2 teams- ever notice the better cappers are picking 3 games?
Its because they know the odds:
if you pick 1 game, the odds of you winning are 50%- you win 100 or lose 110-Simple its 50%
if you pick 2 games, you have a 25% chance of winning. You must go 2-0 or you lose. ( unless you bet different amounts ) but the odds of winning are still 25%
if you pick 3 games, your odds of winning are back up to 50% ( you go 3-0, 2-1 1-2 o-3 Simplified ) 50% chance of having a winning night-
No one should ever be picking an even number of game ( 2, 4, 6 ,8) unless they want to gauranteed a losing night
I don’t buy this at all. You will win over the long haul if you are a good capper and lose if not. One day I have 1 game and the next maybe 2-3 if at the end of the week you had 12 plays and won 7-8 of them it doesn’t matter how many you play on a given day. No offense just my .02 cents.
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I don’t buy this at all. You will win over the long haul if you are a good capper and lose if not. One day I have 1 game and the next maybe 2-3 if at the end of the week you had 12 plays and won 7-8 of them it doesn’t matter how many you play on a given day. No offense just my .02 cents.
This logic is flawed. You have to keep in mind that the losing possibilities for a 3 game slate (1 - 2 or 0 - 3) are harder on your bankroll and overtime you are exposing yourself to more juice by playing more games.
Hypothetically let’s say you bet $110 to win $100 for every bet. Here is the math:
2 play scenario:
0.33(200) + 0.33(-10) + .33(-220)
= -9.9
3 play scenario
0.25(300) + 0.25(90) + 0.25(-120) + 0.25(-330)
= -15
Your expected return will continue to fall the more games you play over time due to the juice. It’s actually more profitable to play less games over time.
gambling/investing… tomayto/tomahto
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This logic is flawed. You have to keep in mind that the losing possibilities for a 3 game slate (1 - 2 or 0 - 3) are harder on your bankroll and overtime you are exposing yourself to more juice by playing more games.
Hypothetically let’s say you bet $110 to win $100 for every bet. Here is the math:
2 play scenario:
0.33(200) + 0.33(-10) + .33(-220)
= -9.9
3 play scenario
0.25(300) + 0.25(90) + 0.25(-120) + 0.25(-330)
= -15
Your expected return will continue to fall the more games you play over time due to the juice. It’s actually more profitable to play less games over time.
This logic is flawed. You have to keep in mind that the losing possibilities for a 3 game slate (1 - 2 or 0 - 3) are harder on your bankroll and overtime you are exposing yourself to more juice by playing more games. Hypothetically let’s say you bet $110 to win $100 for every bet. Here is the math: 2 play scenario: 0.33(200) + 0.33(-10) + .33(-220) = -9.9 3 play scenario 0.25(300) + 0.25(90) + 0.25(-120) + 0.25(-330) = -15 Your expected return will continue to fall the more games you play over time due to the juice. It’s actually more profitable to play less games over time.
YOur math is way off:
Here is the Math
3 Play Scenario:
3-0 12.5% x300= +37.5
2-1 37.5% x100= (90x 37.5) +33.75
1-2 37.5% x 100 = ( -110 x .375)-45
0-3 x 12.5% x 100 =-41.75
2-0 .25x 200=+50
1-1 50% x -10 = -5
0-2 .25 = -55
Again, you have a 50% chance of winning by picking 3 team, and a 25% chance of winning by picking 2 teams Higher exposure, but higher reward too
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Quote Originally Posted by confetti_tacos:
This logic is flawed. You have to keep in mind that the losing possibilities for a 3 game slate (1 - 2 or 0 - 3) are harder on your bankroll and overtime you are exposing yourself to more juice by playing more games. Hypothetically let’s say you bet $110 to win $100 for every bet. Here is the math: 2 play scenario: 0.33(200) + 0.33(-10) + .33(-220) = -9.9 3 play scenario 0.25(300) + 0.25(90) + 0.25(-120) + 0.25(-330) = -15 Your expected return will continue to fall the more games you play over time due to the juice. It’s actually more profitable to play less games over time.
YOur math is way off:
Here is the Math
3 Play Scenario:
3-0 12.5% x300= +37.5
2-1 37.5% x100= (90x 37.5) +33.75
1-2 37.5% x 100 = ( -110 x .375)-45
0-3 x 12.5% x 100 =-41.75
2-0 .25x 200=+50
1-1 50% x -10 = -5
0-2 .25 = -55
Again, you have a 50% chance of winning by picking 3 team, and a 25% chance of winning by picking 2 teams Higher exposure, but higher reward too
But “days” don’t even really apply here. If you always have a 50% chance to win a bet and every bet has 10% juice, you can expect a -$5 return
0.5(100) + 0.5(-110) = -5
Therefore, in this context, you’d need to hit at least 52.5% of bets to break even or better. The more bets you place, the larger chance you have of bringing your win rate to 50%.
gambling/investing… tomayto/tomahto
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But “days” don’t even really apply here. If you always have a 50% chance to win a bet and every bet has 10% juice, you can expect a -$5 return
0.5(100) + 0.5(-110) = -5
Therefore, in this context, you’d need to hit at least 52.5% of bets to break even or better. The more bets you place, the larger chance you have of bringing your win rate to 50%.
But “days” don’t even really apply here. If you always have a 50% chance to win a bet and every bet has 10% juice, you can expect a -$5 return 0.5(100) + 0.5(-110) = -5 Therefore, in this context, you’d need to hit at least 52.5% of bets to break even or better. The more bets you place, the larger chance you have of bringing your win rate to 50%.
That wasnt my point You are changing the narrative-
I said you should never pick 2,4,6,8 games as it gives you a major disadvantage-
If i pick 3 games a night for 7 days, at the end of the week, i have a 50% chance of being ahead.
If you pick 2 games a night at the end of the week you have a 25% chance of being ahead.
The math is plain as day
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Quote Originally Posted by confetti_tacos:
But “days” don’t even really apply here. If you always have a 50% chance to win a bet and every bet has 10% juice, you can expect a -$5 return 0.5(100) + 0.5(-110) = -5 Therefore, in this context, you’d need to hit at least 52.5% of bets to break even or better. The more bets you place, the larger chance you have of bringing your win rate to 50%.
That wasnt my point You are changing the narrative-
I said you should never pick 2,4,6,8 games as it gives you a major disadvantage-
If i pick 3 games a night for 7 days, at the end of the week, i have a 50% chance of being ahead.
If you pick 2 games a night at the end of the week you have a 25% chance of being ahead.
Not sure if following your math works. From my own experience, if I bet 3 games straight up I'll lose 2 of them. If I bet on 3 / 2 team parlays using 6 teams and spreads I'll hit 2 out of 3. Amazing how many times I've done it.
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Not sure if following your math works. From my own experience, if I bet 3 games straight up I'll lose 2 of them. If I bet on 3 / 2 team parlays using 6 teams and spreads I'll hit 2 out of 3. Amazing how many times I've done it.
I can promise you any true professional is considering only finding one winner, maybe two, but even that rarely. They aren't betting multiple games a day, odd, even, or otherwise.
And just because people post in here about their "bets," don't believe everything you read, come on now, some of you can't be that naive.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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I can promise you any true professional is considering only finding one winner, maybe two, but even that rarely. They aren't betting multiple games a day, odd, even, or otherwise.
And just because people post in here about their "bets," don't believe everything you read, come on now, some of you can't be that naive.
You don't make any sense at all. Sure there are 4 outcomes with 3 games but that does not factor in the number of times you will go 1-2 or 0-3 over the long haul. There is no guarantee that just because you bet 3 games, you will win 3-0 or 2-1 over 50% of the time. You could still be a bad picker and lose 0-3 five times in a row and you'd be 0-15. Then you'd have to go 3-0 5 times just to break even. Again you are not talking about the odds of winning your bets, just the 4 outcomes of making 3 picks.
Here is an example. If you make one bet you can either go 0-1 or 1-0. But you could lose that pick 5 out of 6 times so you'd be in the hole 1-5. You aren't considering the percentages that you will win at, only the 4 possible outcomes of 1-3 team plays. You are clearly very new to gambling and literally are completely wrong in your theory.
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You don't make any sense at all. Sure there are 4 outcomes with 3 games but that does not factor in the number of times you will go 1-2 or 0-3 over the long haul. There is no guarantee that just because you bet 3 games, you will win 3-0 or 2-1 over 50% of the time. You could still be a bad picker and lose 0-3 five times in a row and you'd be 0-15. Then you'd have to go 3-0 5 times just to break even. Again you are not talking about the odds of winning your bets, just the 4 outcomes of making 3 picks.
Here is an example. If you make one bet you can either go 0-1 or 1-0. But you could lose that pick 5 out of 6 times so you'd be in the hole 1-5. You aren't considering the percentages that you will win at, only the 4 possible outcomes of 1-3 team plays. You are clearly very new to gambling and literally are completely wrong in your theory.
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