Understanding Pick Management

Plus if you go 0-3, you lose three times as much money as you do if you go 0-1.  Dude you clearly aren't a math wiz, sorry not trying to say bad things about you, but a person who knows a lot about math would find a lot wrong with your hypothesis.

@Degenbeter

Agreed!   Sometimes you don’t have an odd set…Sometimes it’s 2 or 0…

LOL, maybe i am new to gambling- 

or maybe i have some inside experience and watch so many lose so much-

You are certainly right- the nest handicappers will do better than the worst hadicappers-

but you cant deny the math isnt right ..when yuo pick 3 games you have a greater chance of winning than when you pick 2 games- 50 vs 25

Now there are cappers on covers who i know will be 2-0 likely- but the majority of them 999%) will never go 2-0

P.S. at a typical book 75% of parlays are losers 

Well, since you know so much about math- show me exactly where i am wrong- thats a challenge, take it up- 

a

So if you can't go 2-0 why would you be able to go 3-0?  At 50% chance each time, it goes from 50 to 25 to 12.5 percent.  Just do the math.

My reading skills are certainly better than yuors...

i never said picking 1 game is bad- go back and read my original post- i sad always pick odd games- so how does your post have any cred with me

dont need to go 3-0

I have 3 chances to go 2-1 which is better than 1 chance to go 2-0

What is your rebuttal to my argument here?

my rebuttal:

if you choose 2 teams, you only have a 25% of a winning night

3 teams, you have a 50% chance- yuo understand that right?

How I play this is to use dual flip parlay.  Since you don't want BOTH teams to win, ideally you make this bet using 2 underdogs.

I'll throw in an example for tonites games.  Bet 2 games where you like the dog to win, ideally one dog will win and one dog will lose.  On the surface it might look like a bad idea, but what you're doing is using luck in your favor.  Can have a nice return when it hits. Expect to hit at least 50% of the time, the spread should be between +3 to +6, or +7 or +8 if you're confident about it.

MINN +6.5 vs. OSU , right now my books got it at +225

Washington +3 vs. Colorado Huskies my books got it +125

Bet1: MINN ML + Colorado ML = +443

Bet2: Washington ML + OSU ML = +306

Bet 1 unit on each.  If all goes well you win 1 or the other, preferably Bet1.

Flawed logic.

You are playing for the long term, not a single night.

@abomnibus

 Interesting!

i will definitely play with that strategy.

thx

In the long term, i have a higher rate of return. 50 nights in a row, i have a greter chance to win

5,000 nights too.....

Who cares bro let people do what they wanna do. Y'all be too worried about how people operate in life lol

I'm going to say this once and I have a thread proving it. 

I run a Daily Double each day and many days I run a Double Daily Double 

At 6pm today I have

Charleston +120

Delaware +175

There are 4 outcomes and 3 of them are profitable. By this logic I have a 75% chance of winning tonight.

4 possible outcomes tonight 

+2.95 units

+0.20 units

+0.75 units

-2.00 units

At 8pm I have another Daily Double 

Iowa +125

Western Kentucky +140

I'm sure you can see I have another 75% chance of winning at 8pm tonight.

Play moneyline underdogs

Falcon Sports 

Funny how you guys forgot the PUSH.. 

A spread/O/U WITHOUT the hook has 3 outcomes:

Win, lose or a push

That gives you a 1/3 chance, or a 33.333% chance of winning.

A spread WITH the hook has 2 outcomes.

Win or lose

That gives you a 1/2 or a 50% chance of winning...

Basic probability tells us that you multiply the odds, times the number of events.

For example, flip a coin: heads or tails. The odds that it will land heads twice in a row is:

(1/2) x (1/2) = 1/4 cuz all the possible outcomes are:

HH, HT, TH, TT

And parlays? Only suckers bet them. I don't care what you say, only suckers bet them. Winning ONE event is hard enough as it is, why complicate it even further by tying in another event? 

Or suspended game due to slick floors when your up by 9 on a +175 dog

Bet 2 won here for a net 1.06 u

@TJZags598 Did you try this?

This theory would hold weight only if you were picking games out of a hat, and more so if you were evaluating your win rate on one day or even one week and then stopping. You could make the same argument breaking this down on a weekly basis and wouldnt matter what order they were played... 2 games monday 1 game tuesday 5 games wed... 

and your assuming a 50% win rate... again picking out of a hat wtf?

@abomnibus

Yes, indeed i did. i analyzed for a few, and agree with your strategy-

Appreciated....I am going to play with this system more, i think its very valid at first blush.

@invest4profits

 and your assuming a 50% win rate... again picking out of a hat wtf?

Most people dont ever hit 50%. You telling me the majority of bettors do better than 50%? Absolutely not. EVER. EVER. I have been on the other side, and anyone who says the majority of bettors hit better than 50% is inaccurate- just look at this board. maybe 25 have a record better than 50%>

Profession gamblers hit about 54% of their sports bets. Anyone less than a professional is usually in mid 40's, as they take too many favs, and overs.

@TJZags598

50% rate

 ml bets?

or ats-o/u bets?

because i am hitting at above 60% with just ml bets: nhl, nba, ncca bb

You've discovered the secret with -120 or more ml bets!! 

Don't win too much from the local book with those -300+ ml bets!!  That wouldn't be fair.. 

*eye roll...** 

@TheSquare

 A WIN IS  WIN 

BETTER THAN LOSING ALL THE TIME WITH OVER/UNDER AND ATS BETS

not betting -300 crap either btwn 140-160 maybe 180 is that good enough for YOU so called PROS