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Happy Valentine's Day to everyone, and an extra special Happy V-Day to anyone who has a wife/girlfriend/SO who doesn't mind them being a degenerate today.
I'm stuck at my in-laws house today, luckily my mother in law loves basketball so I've been able to watch games all day yesterday and today.
To today's UCLA-USC game, my initial lean was to take UCLA with the points and possibly the moneyline, but then I had to really sit back and remember that this is not a common Ben Howland team. A normal Howland team would be a great play in this spot -- revenge angle, catching lots of points on a rivalry game, Howland with 6+ days to prepare for Southern Cal... but this is not a typical squad like his past teams. Past teams had warriors on their team, leaders who wouldn't take losses lying down (Farmar, Mbah a Moute, Love, Westbrook, Afflalo, Collison, Aboya, etc.) The leaders on this years team? Dragovic and Roll.
Roll is a role player who is forced to be the "man" and is doing good for all things considered. I hate Dragovic and think he is a poison to this team -- shoots them out of games, plays crappy defense, makes bad decisions. I am perplexed why Howland plays him so damn much. I respect a coach's loyalty but this is ridiculous.
The only warriors on this year's UCLA team are Nelson and Honeycutt. They give me hope for the future. Honeycutt is a baller and will be a great pro once he fills out some more. I think UCLA will only have him for one more year, I see him going pro a la Westbrook at the end of a breakout sophomore season.
Tonight's play for me is the OVER 117 for three units. Why the over?
The last time these guys played we got a total of 113 and that was with UCLA going 3-20 from deep and just overall playing terrible team ball. While I think UCLA probably will not be able to prevent USC from scoring, even in the zone, I expect an up-tick on their offense. Any close game will give us free throws, which can result in a late cover. An OT should be an auto-win as it usually is for the over.
This is the lowest total of the year for a UCLA game outside of the last USC game, which was 116. USC has had four games with lower totals than this -- OSU at 111 (under covered), past UCLA game at 116 (under BARELY covered), ASU at 115 (under covered), and UC Riverside to start the year at 115 (over hit). That's three straight unders with totals lower for this for USC, I think the streak is snapped on this game. USC has been under machines this year (14-6 U/O), no doubt, but these low totals are eventually gonna catch up to them.
Looks like this line has moved up to 118 in some spots after starting at 115, so if you are gonna get it, gotta jump on it early.
Keefe is questionable with a re-injured shoulder, which means more minutes for Nelson and Dragovic, which is a good thing for the over because Dragovic can't cover anyone (even in a zone) and is willing to shoot the ball. If he gets hot and shoots well, this game should be over. All UCLA needed to hit the over in their first meeting was to make one more three pointer (aka shoot 4-20 instead of 3-20) and the over pushes. That's not unreasonable to think that will happen today.
Best of luck to everyone, I'll check back in throughout the day.
I'm stuck at my in-laws house today, luckily my mother in law loves basketball so I've been able to watch games all day yesterday and today.
To today's UCLA-USC game, my initial lean was to take UCLA with the points and possibly the moneyline, but then I had to really sit back and remember that this is not a common Ben Howland team. A normal Howland team would be a great play in this spot -- revenge angle, catching lots of points on a rivalry game, Howland with 6+ days to prepare for Southern Cal... but this is not a typical squad like his past teams. Past teams had warriors on their team, leaders who wouldn't take losses lying down (Farmar, Mbah a Moute, Love, Westbrook, Afflalo, Collison, Aboya, etc.) The leaders on this years team? Dragovic and Roll.
Roll is a role player who is forced to be the "man" and is doing good for all things considered. I hate Dragovic and think he is a poison to this team -- shoots them out of games, plays crappy defense, makes bad decisions. I am perplexed why Howland plays him so damn much. I respect a coach's loyalty but this is ridiculous.
The only warriors on this year's UCLA team are Nelson and Honeycutt. They give me hope for the future. Honeycutt is a baller and will be a great pro once he fills out some more. I think UCLA will only have him for one more year, I see him going pro a la Westbrook at the end of a breakout sophomore season.
Tonight's play for me is the OVER 117 for three units. Why the over?
The last time these guys played we got a total of 113 and that was with UCLA going 3-20 from deep and just overall playing terrible team ball. While I think UCLA probably will not be able to prevent USC from scoring, even in the zone, I expect an up-tick on their offense. Any close game will give us free throws, which can result in a late cover. An OT should be an auto-win as it usually is for the over.
This is the lowest total of the year for a UCLA game outside of the last USC game, which was 116. USC has had four games with lower totals than this -- OSU at 111 (under covered), past UCLA game at 116 (under BARELY covered), ASU at 115 (under covered), and UC Riverside to start the year at 115 (over hit). That's three straight unders with totals lower for this for USC, I think the streak is snapped on this game. USC has been under machines this year (14-6 U/O), no doubt, but these low totals are eventually gonna catch up to them.
Looks like this line has moved up to 118 in some spots after starting at 115, so if you are gonna get it, gotta jump on it early.
Keefe is questionable with a re-injured shoulder, which means more minutes for Nelson and Dragovic, which is a good thing for the over because Dragovic can't cover anyone (even in a zone) and is willing to shoot the ball. If he gets hot and shoots well, this game should be over. All UCLA needed to hit the over in their first meeting was to make one more three pointer (aka shoot 4-20 instead of 3-20) and the over pushes. That's not unreasonable to think that will happen today.
Best of luck to everyone, I'll check back in throughout the day.
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