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Vegas vs KenPom Week 3

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Posted: #1
The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.

One note:  I will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.

YTD Record

For the night: 0-0 (%)

For the week: 0-0 (%)

For the year: 48-35 (58%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 19-14 (58%)
Away Teams: 15-6 (71%)

Favorites: 28-23 (55%)
Dogs:      20-12 (63%)

Line moved toward KP:  32-24 (57%)
Line moved away KP:  13-3 (81%)

Monday Plays coming soon
 
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Posted: #2
Official Monday Plays:

Brown +12.5
 
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Posted: #3
Hey Beaver, 
I think you said that you used betonline for opening lines. And while betonline gives 11 for an opening line many other casionos had this game at 12-13. What do you think about that?
Also, could you clarify what you ment when u wrote line moved toward/away kenpom?
I am thinking that you mean if kenpom has brown at 14, vegas has them at 12, and line moves up to 13/14 then that is toward kenpom away from Vegas. Same if kenpom has line at 5, Vegas 8, and the line drops to kenpom. 
Just want to be clear. 
 
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Posted: #4
Hi Beaverfan,
Love what u r doing! What's the line diff on the Brown game?

Thanks!
 
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Posted: #5
Keep up the nice work Beaver, Love your posts!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Hey Beaver, 
I think you said that you used betonline for opening lines. And while betonline gives 11 for an opening line many other casionos had this game at 12-13. What do you think about that?
Also, could you clarify what you ment when u wrote line moved toward/away kenpom?
I am thinking that you mean if kenpom has brown at 14, vegas has them at 12, and line moves up to 13/14 then that is toward kenpom away from Vegas. Same if kenpom has line at 5, Vegas 8, and the line drops to kenpom. 
Just want to be clear. 


Betonline usually comes out a few hours before the other casinos.  The opening line at others usually reflects the adjusted "betonline" line at the time they open.  And yes, that is exactly what I mean by moved toward and moved away
 
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Posted: #7
DJ, BigDog
 
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Posted: #8
 
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Posted: #9
Still following. Can you get above 60 %?

Hope so

 
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Posted: #10
Good stuff Beaver...

I enjoy reading your threads but I dont have time to do the in-depth research. It seems as though (so far) those moving away from KP are en fuego. 

Is there any way you can put a side note next to the play stating whether or not it is moving "toward or away"?

One way or the other, thanks... and good luck throughout!
 
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Posted: #11
Just one bet?
Dammit
 
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Posted: #12
Hey Beaver, I dont want to come across as trying to usurp your thread since u are the original Kenpom. But i think that another good thing to track would be openinline lines compared with betonline and other books. SInce most other books had the opening at 12/13 i did was skeptical of brown. And looking at browns last 10 with prov they frequently got blown out... and got blow out on the road this year too. So this was a no play for me.  I know its a system and how do we pic and choose what we like but i believe that we must find a way to bet with more overall confidence.  like that 12 and 3 away dog.. that is off the hook!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

Hey Beaver, I dont want to come across as trying to usurp your thread since u are the original Kenpom. But i think that another good thing to track would be openinline lines compared with betonline and other books. SInce most other books had the opening at 12/13 i did was skeptical of brown. And looking at browns last 10 with prov they frequently got blown out... and got blow out on the road this year too. So this was a no play for me.  I know its a system and how do we pic and choose what we like but i believe that we must find a way to bet with more overall confidence.  like that 12 and 3 away dog.. that is off the hook!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11


Go ahead and do it
 
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Posted: #14
I kept posting all day in the old thread...


Lets cash this boys Bev's and Megatron
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by djitow:

Hi Beaverfan,
Love what u r doing! What's the line diff on the Brown game?

Thanks!


Brown lost.  I lost.  Dammit!
1 bet tonite.
Enough of this strategy chatter.
I need money. I need winners.

Tue. better rock.  This shit is entertaining. (plus i've been drinking)
 
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Posted: #16
..................we'll cash em tomorrow
 
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Posted: #17
2morro early action

Wash plus 6, if this line move up then we are looking at an current 80% hit rate
Wofford plus 1

and me personal northern Iowa (not system)
I encourage anyone do do their own analysis of these games and tell me what they think. And if we can come up with any other angles lets do it. Beaver started it, now lets help him and make it the best it can be. 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

2morro early action

Wash plus 6, if this line move up then we are looking at an current 80% hit rate
Wofford plus 1

and me personal northern Iowa (not system)
I encourage anyone do do their own analysis of these games and tell me what they think. And if we can come up with any other angles lets do it. Beaver started it, now lets help him and make it the best it can be. 



I am going to do just the system from Monday to Sunday and reevaluate after week brother...lets stay with it and see how it does....
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

2morro early action

Wash plus 6, if this line move up then we are looking at an current 80% hit rate
Wofford plus 1

and me personal northern Iowa (not system)
I encourage anyone do do their own analysis of these games and tell me what they think. And if we can come up with any other angles lets do it. Beaver started it, now lets help him and make it the best it can be. 


Tron, sorry if I don't quite understand yet, but if Marq line was -6 or 6.5 per vegas, and KP has them winning by 10, doesn't that mean that the line is moving towards KP?  The diff is now 3 points at -7.  Does that mean this trend is hitting at a 54% rate (meaning are you looking at the favorite in this situation, or the dog)?  Thanks!
 
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Posted: #21
Great stuff Beaver, really appreciate it.
 
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Posted: #22
YTD Record

For the night: 0-1 (0%)

For the week: 0-1 (0%)

For the year: 48-36 (57%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 19-14 (58%)
Away Teams: 15-7 (68%)

Favorites: 28-23 (55%)
Dogs:      20-13 (61%)

Line moved toward KP:  32-25 (56%)
Line moved away KP:  13-3 (81%)

Tuesday Plays coming soon
 
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Posted: #23
It is amazing how small the amount of basketball smarts those IVY league kids have on the Brown basketball team...wow they did so many stupid things.  Countless fouls on 3 point shots, fed the ball into the paint then turned it over, just dumb shit for 40 straight minutes.

Moving on...

Official Tuesday Plays:

Wofford +3 Line has moved toward
Bradley -2
Washington +7.5 Line moving toward
Miami -1.5 Moving toward

 
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Posted: #24
Hey guys, Sonsana and Jus,
1st, a system is a system but it is only as good as its data and the people using it, using some sort of qualative data should probably still be used when evaluating games. (at least in my opinion)
Just, we assume that the vegas line is the sharper line. So since kenpom says marg should be favored by 10, and vegas says only 6 we assume vegas knows something and bet the dog. does that make sense?
 
 
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Posted: #25
Upon further reviews,
play these games anyway u like em but right now according to our current stats wash is the pick of the day.
then wofford then bradely (who is also NRopp main pic)
then we got mia and i would love them if that center was playing.
Lets hope we have a great night 2nite. Thanks again Beaver for starting this....
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