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Vegas vs KenPom Week 3

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Qualitative data is gold when applying revenge and rivalry situations. Washington is clearly going to cover against Marquette. Unless Vegas hands out free money last time I checked they don't
 
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Posted: #27
Just realized that I forgot to bet on Wofford and Bradley

I will post them in the YTD record though
 
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Posted: #28
OH beaver say it aint so... u always win the ones u dont bet.
 
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Posted: #29
great thread, keep it up
 
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Posted: #30
Watched this last year, but never jumped on board.  Looks like your really on to something.  Thanks for sharing. 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by CapitalGains:

Watched this last year, but never jumped on board.  Looks like you are really on to something.  Thanks for sharing. 
 
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Posted: #32
Nice #'s Beave...
 
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Posted: #33
Ok nice day for the system again going 3 and 1 with are dogs continuing to rock it.... 2morro plays comming soon. Again i encourage other people to step in and work 2gether.
 
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Posted: #34
BEAVER.
Wow we have allot of games for wednesday and we have some big differences in lines.  And in some instances we have lines jumping 2-3 points quick from the opening number... 2 late now but catch up with u l8r
 
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Posted: #35
What are the plays for Wednesday?
 
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Posted: #36
YTD Record

For the night: 3-1 (75%)

For the week: 3-2 (60%)

For the year: 51-37 (58%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 21-15 (58%)
Away Teams: 15-7 (68%)

Favorites: 29-24 (55%)
Dogs:      22-13 (63%)

Line moved toward KP:  34-26 (57%)
Line moved away KP:  14-3 (82%)

Wednesday Plays coming soon
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by MooseKnuckler:

Good stuff Beaver...

I enjoy reading your threads but I dont have time to do the in-depth research. It seems as though (so far) those moving away from KP are en fuego. 

Is there any way you can put a side note next to the play stating whether or not it is moving "toward or away"?

One way or the other, thanks... and good luck throughout!


Sorry I haven't had a lot of time to respond to anything.  I can probably do something like that but you'll have to check right before tip since the lines are always moving.  Tonight Bradley was a game that the line moved away from Kenpom.  I thought about posting something about it but didn't want to jinx it.  I will do my best to let you know which way it has been moving since I know alot of people don't have access to the kenpom website
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by randumbdesign:

What are the plays for Wednesday?


Should have official plays posted by at least 2pm EST and hopefully earlier...busy morning ahead though
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Megatron27:

OH beaver say it aint so... u always win the ones u dont bet.


Guess it makes up for the time that I accidentally bet the wrong team and won lol.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by BurghCappers:

Still following. Can you get above 60 %?

Hope so



I sure would love to, would be ecstatic to stay around 58% for the remainder though. 
 
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Posted: #41
FMC1, Sosana, Jabba, SamE, BMad, CG's, Playaa...

Appreciate the love
 
Prospect
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Posted: #42
Beaver, this is what i got so far
toledo big line difference big movement
Depual big differene
Mid Tenn big diff big jum
Cololrado big diff
AF big diff
Cal Ful big diff and big jump
GB big diff big jump
Byu, huge diff and jump

readers, do ur HW on those games tell the board what u know. We are shooting close to 60% blind right now... imagine if we can improve that 5 or 10 percent.... hello revs and parleys and cash.
And yes Beaver deserves the props since he started it. 
 
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Posted: #43
I like your threads and it's helped on some picks for sure.  I played each game below individually and then on a couple teasers.  Here is my final card for wednesday hoops:
Duke Over 146
Florida Over 143
Rhode Island +6
Dayton +5
Buffalo -6.5
Georgia -5 
Vanderbilt -1
Princeton +6
Wichita State -3
Wisconsin -19.5
 Western Kentucky +6.5
Wright State +8
Illinois Over 129
 Xavier -6
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -4.5
 
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Posted: #44
Hey Beaver thanks for keeping such an interesting take on picks. I can't access KenPom so if possible could you mention which picks fall into which categories. Some categories look really good hitting at a very high % and I'd like to look into them more but can not get the numbers from KenPom. If you have time to do that it would be greatly appreciated, thanks.
 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46
Official Wednesday Plays:

URI +6.5 (Home Dog, Moving toward KP)
Niagra +8.5 (Home Dog, Moving Toward)
LoyMD +4 (Road Dog, Moving Toward)
Fordham +7 (Road Dog, Moving Toward)
UAB +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Colo -9 (Home, Fave, Toward)
WeberSt +13.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Cal St Ful -9 (Road, Fave, Away)
Illinois -10.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)  at 64% contest players. Im going to  hold off for now.

AF -8 (Home, Fave, No movement so far)

Boise St -15 would've been a play with the line moving AWAY from KP, but 73% of the contest players have picked them.  So I will not be playing it.


Tron, Im not seeing those others that you posted
 
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Posted: #47
This system looks like something similar to what Billy Walters does.
 
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Posted: #48
Thank you Beaver, lot of moving toward KP. If you get a chance could you check out these, if not no big deal.

Dayton

Tulsa

UAB

Butler

Denver

Georgia tech

Missouri State


I like all 6 of those but do not like to play more than 4 games, trying to rule some out.


Out of the ones you listed I like LoyMD and Fordham the best. I know you're not supposed to pick and choose but looking further into these those two have heavy public backing on the favorites and the line has either not moved or is moving down. That's something I like to look at when picking underdogs.

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by jld2589:

This system looks like something similar to what Billy Walters does.


That is great news!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by BMadoff1987:

Thank you Beaver, lot of moving toward KP. If you get a chance could you check out these, if not no big deal.

Dayton +6

Tulsa +3

UAB +3

Butler +5

Denver +3

Georgia tech +4

Missouri State -3


I like all 6 of those but do not like to play more than 4 games, trying to rule some out.


Out of the ones you listed I like LoyMD and Fordham the best. I know you're not supposed to pick and choose but looking further into these those two have heavy public backing on the favorites and the line has either not moved or is moving down. That's something I like to look at when picking underdogs.



Not exactly sure what you want me to check out...but here are the kenpom lines on those games
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