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Vegas vs KenPom Week 4

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Wednesday Plays:

Wright St +5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Tenn +2.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
N.Colo +3.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
UCLA -9.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)

Hey Beaver, could u show what the fan match and ur opening vegas lines were to help understand ur picks?  The lines I used from Betonline opening lines and fanmatch do not support these picks.

Example for wright st. I have fanmatch +6 and opened at +4.5.  1.5 pt difference...doesnt fit.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by cous76:


Hey Beaver, could u show what the fan match and ur opening vegas lines were to help understand ur picks?  The lines I used from Betonline opening lines and fanmatch do not support these picks.

Example for wright st. I have fanmatch +6 and opened at +4.5.  1.5 pt difference...doesnt fit.

Figured it out...looking at wrong line
Betonline opened at 4 fanmatch at 6....there's the 2 pt difference.  Vegas favors Wright st, thus the play...

Keep up the great work Beaver!!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by cous76:


Figured it out...looking at wrong line
Betonline opened at 4 fanmatch at 6....there's the 2 pt difference.  Vegas favors Wright st, thus the play...

Keep up the great work Beaver!!


Been away from the computer all day and wasn't able to reply.  Glad you got it figured out.  GL
 
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Posted: #29
Hey Megatron,

Where did you go?

You talked an awful lot of shit to all of a sudden disappear?
    

"Only here for gambling and to work on the system..."

What a clown... and a quitter too!



 
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Posted: #30
YTD Record

For the night: 1-3 (25%)

For the week: 3-3 (50%)

For the year: 68-54 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 29-26 (53%)
Road Teams: 22-13 (63%)

Favorites: 35-32 (52%)
Dogs:      33-22 (60%)

Line moved toward KP:  48-42 (53%)
Line moved away KP:  17-4 (81%)
 
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Posted: #31
No plays on thursday.  There will be a couple tomorrow night.

Slow week with finals going on.
 
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Posted: #32
great work....   appreciate all the time and effort....  could you give me the reasons why the play is this or that?  would like to better understand  ... thank you
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by scooby-doos:

great work....   appreciate all the time and effort....  could you give me the reasons why the play is this or that?  would like to better understand  ... thank you


Difference between the kenpom prediction and the oddsmakers's opening line.

If there is a large difference, this system goes against kenpom and sides with vegas. 

Hope this helps
 
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Posted: #34
Ready for finals week to get over with and the kids start playing ball again.

Good luck tonight beaver
 
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Posted: #35

Offical Friday Plays:

NC Green +4

Ill Chi +9.5

Idaho St -2.5

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Offical Friday Plays:

NC Green +4

Ill Chi +9.5

Idaho St -2.5



Beaver, are any of these plays moving away? thanks

 
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Posted: #37
Ill-Chi is +8.5 at 5dimes, which would be away movement. (KP- +11)
 
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Posted: #38

Offical Friday Plays:

NC Green +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Ill Chi +9.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)

Idaho St -2.5 (Road, Fave, Away)


Sorry I didn't have time to post that stuff earlier...Idaho St is moving away.


The only issue I have with that game is that this might be the last game Utah has a decent chance of winning for the remainder of the season.  They are fully aware of this and will be going all out to get the win. 


I will be on Id. St, but bet with caution

 
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Posted: #39
YTD Record

For the night: 1-2 (33%)

For the week: 4-5 (44%)

For the year: 69-56 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 29-27 (52%)
Road Teams: 23-14 (62%)

Favorites: 35-33 (51%)
Dogs:      34-23 (60%)

Line moved toward KP:  49-43 (53%)
Line moved away KP:  17-5 (77%)
 
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Posted: #40
Official Saturday Plays:

Duq -4 (Road, Fave,None)
N.Ill +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)
Temple +6 (Road, Dog, Toward)
UCF -5.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
App St +28.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)
Toledo +1.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)
St Joes -4 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Cal Poly +1 (Road, Fave, Toward)
USC -5.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)
NM 0 (Neutral, Fave, Toward)

I am not locking in these lines until the morning.  They are all moving toward kenpom so I hope to get better numbers on a few of them.


 
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Posted: #41
Duquesne is not a play.  Just saw that they have 65% of the public on them
 
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Posted: #42
Beaver, check out montana/port also
 
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Posted: #43
Official Saturday Plays: At the lines I got

N.Ill +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)  L
Temple +7 (Road, Dog, Toward)  L
UCF -5.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)  W
App St +27.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)  W
Toledo +2 (Home, Dog, Toward)  W
St Joes -3 (Home, Fave, Toward)
Cal Poly +2 (Road, Fave, Toward)
USC -6 (Home, Fave, None)
NM 0 (Neutral, Fave, Away)

3-2 with 4 games left.  NM is an AWAY movement play
 
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Posted: #44
Sorry....got NM at -2.5
 
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Posted: #45
Finished 6-3 last night.  Going over Sunday plays now
 
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Posted: #46
Official Sunday Plays:

Oral Roberts +5.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
IUPU FW -5 (Road, Fave, Away)
Oregon +2 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Sorry for the late post...try to get 2nd half on IUPU FW.

GL today
 
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Posted: #47
 Ipfw second half
 
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Posted: #48
Oral roberts is winning by 18 with 11 minutes left in the game.

Looks like you missed out on an easier winner.
 
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Posted: #49
Hey beaver any leans or picks for Monday yet?
 
 
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Posted: #50
YTD Record

For the night: 2-1 (33%)

For the week: 12-9 (44%)

For the year: 77-60 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 32-30 (52%)
Road Teams: 27-15 (64%)

Favorites: 40-34 (54%)
Dogs:      37-26 (59%)

Line moved toward KP:  54-46 (54%)
Line moved away KP:  20-5 (80%)
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