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Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:

Is Rider a play if Kenpom has the game by 21 and the spread is 16.5?  I think it opened @ 18?  


No. The 3 point difference between 21 and 18 is a no play.
 
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Posted: #152
Bobcat, would you mind explaining why not?  I thought a 3 point difference meets the criterion.
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:

Is Rider a play if Kenpom has the game by 21 and the spread is 16.5?  I think it opened @ 18?  


Nope, at 21 the differential between kp and the opening line has to be at least 5 pts.  Line movements are not used to determine whether its a play.
 
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Posted: #154
Oooooh word so b/c Youngstown St. opened @ 1.5 and Kenpom is @ 4, it could be considered a play?
 
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Posted: #155
anybody notice the # of away teams that covered yesterday at 35-9 ,,is unreal
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by TommyGunner:

Oooooh word so b/c Youngstown St. opened @ 1.5 and Kenpom is @ 4, it could be considered a play?


Right, plus the public betting is 70% on Wisc-Mil, which makes it all the more attractive to me.  WisM doesn't play that great on the road.  YS is pretty strong offensively, not so much defensively, but they generally play pretty strong at home.
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by sscott999:



Right, plus the public betting is 70% on Wisc-Mil, which makes it all the more attractive to me.  WisM doesn't play that great on the road.  YS is pretty strong offensively, not so much defensively, but they generally play pretty strong at home.
  Hard to qualify that they play pretty strong at home, as the small sample size, 6 home games so far this year, doesn't tell the whole story.  I'm on them catching the points and ML so hope they play like Supermen at home.  BOL
 
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Posted: #158
so YS would be a no play, correct?
 
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Posted: #159
Sscott where do you click to get the line history? If you click on the link to the current line it brings you to BetOnline.com
 
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Posted: #160
Quote Originally Posted by LockBurger:

so YS would be a no play, correct?


Incorrect.  YS IS a play based on BO's opening line of 1.5.  Public betting is heavily against them.  It would only be a no play if public betting was heavily for them (i.e. > 65%).
 
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Posted: #161

Only play I'm seeing for tonight, and Beaver will be the ultimate judge ofcourse is:

YSU +2 1/2 opened +1.5/ KP +4 (Home, Dog, Toward)

 

 
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Posted: #162
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Sscott where do you click to get the line history? If you click on the link to the current line it brings you to BetOnline.com


If you go to the current lines on VegasInsider.com  and click on any of the lines EXCEPT under the offshores (I would just click on the consensus line next to the opening line), it will take you to the line movement history for all of the Vegas books.  On THAT page, click on the "Offshore Movements" link at the top and it will show you history for all of the offshore movements.
 
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Posted: #163
Gotcha. Thanks. That's a nice alternative to covers. I may start using it. So yes it does appear that Youngstown St. is a play with the 2.5 differential. 

Youngstown St. +2.5 HDT
 
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Posted: #164
Pretty strange that betonline isn't listed in the covers line moves...but, i'm willing to roll with the vegas insider opening line.

Official Friday Plays:

Youngstown St +2.5 HDT


 
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Posted: #165
I doubt there will be much of a change on kenpom's ratings from tonights games, so lets get a head start on tomorrow's card.  I will be out of town again, so any help is appreciated.
 
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Posted: #166

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

I doubt there will be much of a change on kenpom's ratings from tonights games, so lets get a head start on tomorrow's card.  I will be out of town again, so any help is appreciated.

I'll be working on it Beaver.

 
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Posted: #167

I weeded out the KenPom lines, home/away, etc. on this Google spreadsheet. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgySzPjpSISsdFNHcUUxYzFnU0MtNUhBbEloc05Gc2c

This should make it easier for everyone to smurf out the opening lines and match them up so we can win a lot of games tomorrow.

 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by sscott999:



Incorrect.  YS IS a play based on BO's opening line of 1.5.  Public betting is heavily against them.  It would only be a no play if public betting was heavily for them (i.e. > 65%).

 thanks 
 
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Posted: #169
Bored at work today so I took a stab at tomorrow's large card. This has not been weeded out for 65% action yet so:

New Mexico St @ Hawaii (+2 / KP+5)

Maryland @ Temple (-9.5 / KP-14)

Villanova @ St Johns (+1.5 / KP+5)

SMU @ Memphis (-13 / KP-17)

Kansas St @ Oklahoma St (+2.5 / KP+6)

Yale @ Brown (+3.5 / KP+8)

Indiana St @ Creighton (-12 / KP-16)

Boise St @ TCU (-4.5 / KP-1)

Oklahoma St -1 @ Texas A&M -4 (over the zero)

Florida St @ Duke (-12 / KP-7)

Rhode Island @ La Salle (-15 / KP-20)

Towson @ Geo Mason (-24.5 / KP-19)

Arizona St @ Utah (+4.5 / KP+9)

Iowa St @ Texas Tech (+4.5 / KP+10)

Duquesne @ St Louis (-9 / KP-14)

IUPUI @ UMKC (pk / KP-3)

Oakland @ Oral Roberts (-8.5 / KP-15)

Murray St @ SIU Edwardsville (+17 / KP+21)

Air Force @ San Diego St (-15 / KP-11)

St Mary’s @ Santa Clara (+9.5 / KP+14)


 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:

Bored at work today so I took a stab at tomorrow's large card. This has not been weeded out for 65% action yet so:

New Mexico St @ Hawaii (+2 / KP+5)

Maryland @ Temple (-9.5 / KP-14)

Villanova @ St Johns (+1.5 / KP+5)

SMU @ Memphis (-13 / KP-17)

Kansas St @ Oklahoma St (+2.5 / KP+6)

Yale @ Brown (+3.5 / KP+8)

Indiana St @ Creighton (-12 / KP-16)

Boise St @ TCU (-4.5 / KP-1)

Oklahoma St -1 @ Texas A&M -4 (over the zero)

Florida St @ Duke (-12 / KP-7)

Rhode Island @ La Salle (-15 / KP-20)

Towson @ Geo Mason (-24.5 / KP-19)

Arizona St @ Utah (+4.5 / KP+9)

Iowa St @ Texas Tech (+4.5 / KP+10)

Duquesne @ St Louis (-9 / KP-14)

IUPUI @ UMKC (pk / KP-3)

Oakland @ Oral Roberts (-8.5 / KP-15)

Murray St @ SIU Edwardsville (+17 / KP+21)

Air Force @ San Diego St (-15 / KP-11)

St Mary’s @ Santa Clara (+9.5 / KP+14)


Good Stuff Bobcat, I havent had a chance to look it over yet. Thanks for the work.

 
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Posted: #171
Those openings are from Betonline at about 2pm PST.
 
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Posted: #172

Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:

Those openings are from Betonline at about 2pm PST.

Thanks bro, I was getting ready to pm you. All I can find is bookmaker.

 
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Posted: #173
 
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Posted: #174
1-0! 
 
 
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Posted: #175
Preliminary card for tomorrow, details to come.


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