Vegas vs KenPom Week 9

Kelly Criterion Method
Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 14-9
Total: +237.42

Week 9 Inputs
Starting bankroll: 500.00
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 42
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57.4% or53
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 59.5% or 75
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 60.2% or 82
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 52.8% or 4
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 53.9% or 16
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 54.5%% or 22
Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55.5% or 33

Note, I left the starting bankroll input at 500.00 for week 9.  I'm going to wait for a full week to change this input, so all inputs will be refreshed at the start of week 10.

beaver can you explain how Louisville is a play. Based on what I have read you guys are using betonline openers. Louisville opened at +4.5 and currently that is where the line is at the majority of the offshores and a few sprinkled +4.

Trying to learn here thanks for your reply or anyone elses.

jr

Quote Originally Posted by duanedibley:



I've tried to understand these threads for some time now, but I really need some help. If you are using Kenpom as a source of information, their prediction that Marquette will beat Louisville by 7 points would make Marquette -4.5 the play. Why is Louisville the play? 

This is the part that has alluded me as well. In the majority of stat based systems the advantage is the play.

I've been wondering like you. If Kenpom says Marquette by 7 and they are favored by 4-4.5 and have an advantage of 2.5 to 3 why Louisville?

Also I must be doing something wrong when I used the spreadsheet I posted in week 8 from the blog site. I came up with Marquette by 3. Is there a home team advantage that should be added.

Rating 0.8354

Offense 102.8

Defense 87.7

Tempo 67.9

Team Marquette

Rating 0.8911

Offense 111.3

Defense 90.6

Tempo 70.6

Average

Average Offense 107.05

Average Defense 89.15

Average Tempo 69.25

Possessions 69

Team 1 Score 69

Team 2 Score 72

So what I am asking here is this. Marquette shows winning by 3, are you adding some amount for home court advantage. I am guessing 4 to get Marquette by 7.

I am either using wrong data or the excel sheet I am using is wrong.

JRivers,

Ur killing us..

Marquette 71-64 (74%)  Predicted Outcome...You must spend the $20

I found a website that presents the opening lines in a table view that can be easily copy / pasted into Excel, even without importing and reformatting.

https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/basketball.php

Click on "NCAA Prediction Tracker"

The opening odds displayed their matched 9 for 9 with the odds being pulled from covers or betonline.com

This, along with the previously mentioned method formula to "extract" the KenPom line should give everyone an easier, less-human way of finding the deltas we are all so interested in.