Wednesday buckets, two large

33-30 +1.8 Units YTD
5 Unit plays are 5-3

Two big plays today, but really I like them all.  Today will be a good day 

Wisconsin -17 5 Units

Wisconsin's MO against inferior competition at home usually spells blowout.  This season they have winning margins of 40, 33, 45, and 46 against bad teams.  They thumped Cal by 25, who isn't a bad team.  Wisconsin Green Bay is a bad team, there's no other way to describe them.  They lost to Wisconsin last season by 28, and I feel they were more competitive last season than they look this season.  I like Wisconsin by 30.

Oregon State -12 5 Units

Oregon State thumped Portland State last season by 33 points.  The Beavers return almost all of their starters from last year, and I don't care where these two teams play, Oregon State will beat them by 20+.  This game is a lot like the Santa Clara game last night where home court just won't make much difference when a team has your number.  The Beavers are good enough to push Kansas AT Kansas, they are going to bury poor Portland State tonight, a team that lost to 3-6 Portland by 21 points.

Savannah State +23 4 Units

Someone at Savannah State must be coaching defense and clock management, because all of their games are low scoring and they actually look more competitive than they have in years past.  They played Middle Tenn. St. and UCF to within 3 points, and only lost to Florida by 18.  The old Savannah State would've lost to UCF by 20 and Florida by 40, so times have changed and we need to keep up with the times.  I picture another typical game for them, low scoring and keeping the Ohio State damage minimized as best they can.  I still see a Buckeye blowout, but one that looks more like 64-46.  I highly recommend a play on the UNDER 118 here as well.

Towson +18 3 Units

Temple just hasn't beaten anyone soundly at home this season, failing to cover this many points against Rice, Wagner, and Delaware.  Towson is easily as good as these teams in terms of talent, with G'Town and Providence transfers making the Tigers much more competitive than last season.  18 points is just too many.

Arizona State -5.5 3 Units

Speaking of teams that have improved since last season, the Sun Devils are off to a great start.  Granted, they haven't played anyone yet, but DePaul is notoriously inferior on the road and at least for now, I'm hopping on the Sun Devil bandwagon.  They beat Arkansas by 15, and I consider Arkansas and DePaul to be very similar in terms of talent. 

Fresno State +4 3 Units

This line is jumping all over the place, but if you can get it at 4 or better, good for us.  The thing about Colorado is, they're talented, but young.  Four out of five starters are underclassmen, and I just can't back young teams playing on the road.  They lack the discipline and experience to finish, and I think we'll see that here.  Fresno State played Colorado within 7 points last season AT Colorado, I think home court plays a role here and the young Buffaloes struggle to put away Fresno.

Other leans:
Wisc. Milwaukee +11.5
Ohio St./Sav. St. Under 118

7 Team Progressive Parlay

Wisconsin -17
Oregon State -12
Savannah State +23
Towson +18
Arizona State -5.5
Fresno State +4
Wisc. Milwaukee +11.5

4 units pays 168 units

What I like about progressive parlays is, you can take a stab at a large payout and reduce your risk.  You can get 2 wrong in a 7 team progressive and still make money.  Once in a while you need to go for it!

Would probably make all the same bets if I had too, only not as sold on Wisconsin as you.  I saw Wisconsin play Cal and Virginia at home.  Cal looked lost from the start, they can't play that style of ball.  Virginia likes a slower paced game and won.  Green Bay has some big guys and players to stick around.  I watched GB play Virginia and they were not a "bad" team.  I think 17 is too much, the public is all over Wisconsin and the line has dropped from 18 to 17, that is a warning for me too.  I assume this game will be played at a slow pace, making a winning margin of 17+ that much harder to achieve.  Wisconsin winning by 10 or 12 is like an uptempo team winning by 20+ because they value their possessions.

The trick with studying line movement is, you need to differentiate between the relevant and irrelevant movements.  A line moving from 18 to 17 is practically negligible.  People that didn't like laying 18 aren't all of a sudden going to fall in love with 17 and rush to the window.

Now look at the Colorado line.  That went from 3 to 4.5 and now DOWN to 2.5.  This is very relevant, because the public was already all over Colorado and now a line at 2.5 screams value.  Anyone on the fence hurries up and tries to grab 2.5 while they can and some people that already bet them will double up on this "can't pass up" dream line.  The line movement in this game makes me very confident in the Fresno State pick.

Exactly, Colorado seems like a "trap."  I personally don't know anything about those 2 teams so I don't have an opinion.  I would take Fresno solely based on this line movement.

One other thing about line movement, if the public is on a team 70% or more and the line moves against this team, that is significant regardless if it is only 1 point.  That means 7 out of 10 people are placing bets on a team, but the line is moving in reverse of these bets.  That means significantly larger bets are coming in on the other side.  In general, larger bets are made by more informed gamblers.  Soooo, the informed gamblers are pushing the line to the non-public team.  Most of the time, this is the side to be on (but even informed gamblers such as us lose sometimes).

Thoughful writeups. Tks and gluk

Yeah, I honestly think they move lines around almost randomly, just to confuse us and disguise the few times they actually use the line to generate action on a side.  Most people seem to think "sharp money" moves the line but I think that's a bunch of BS.  That only makes sense if you buy into the idea that books just want equal action on both sides, which is the biggest myth still going in the gambling world today.

The line movements that I think are truly intended to sway action are the Arizona State line going up to limit public damage on that pick, and the Colorado line going down to induce public action on a losing bet.  But like you, line movement is a minimal part of my capping. 

Poolman

Lundegaard

DaBuddha

The Colorado line movement is a great example of the books baiting everyone in to take the Fave,...Great analysis.. I use it frequently..

Finally someone who thinks the way i do. I never bought into the fact about evening out $$$ either. Just remember that the books and linesmakers have ALOT more info then we do and set the lines to sway us either way, not so much trap lines but to make us go a certain way on these games....GL..

Good Luck Tonight....

Well, the reason for the line move here is simple. It is a RAS pick and his followers pound his picks to line movement regardless of the pick. 

 

GL Pasteur

capskip

tinoker

Yeah tinoker, agree 100% about the books knowing volumes more than we do.  I mean, it's their job to know!  And their business is a multi-billion dollar industry, so you bet they'll be exceptional at their job. 

That's certainly one explanation.  I tend to think a little differently though

Fresno st is bad lol you're putting money on a bad team again

Like Oregon St but keep in mind that game against Kansas was not at Kansas but neutral site in Kansas City. thansk for the picks

Bad team that is 6-2 ATS. Bad teams cover all the time. Colorado could knock down shots and get to the line and beat Fresno by DD's but this program has struggled to win on the road and is rarely favored on the road.

That's a good point, thanks for clarifying.  It doesn't change my opinion of the game but I do hate to misinform the public! 

Just read Yacker's write up if mine is lacking.  It's much more thorough than mine and looks at all the right things.

Pasteur

lmao they do suck.....

against u on Wisconsin. I like my chances

Quote Originally Posted by elsonic:

lmao they do suck.....