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When do I HEDGE my MICHIGAN 100-1/80-1 FUTURES ???

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Posts: 104

Tomkopec

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 2107

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 12:43 PM ET #26

I'm from Michigan and its gonna bea riot down in Ann Arbor!!! GO BLUE!!!

Hedge out +5.5 for 500-800??

Why not? People who are saying let it ride are not the smartest. Take a profit when its available.

BOL

Hawkbet

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 84

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 1:54 PM ET #27

Definitely hedge, anything above you initial100 makes u a winner. Hedge up and win

ChrisCovers

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 184

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 1:58 PM ET #28

Loyola is ML +225.

You can put 500 to win 1125 on Loyola.

If Michigan wins, then you take 4300 minus 500 = 3800 into the final game.

If they play Kansas, the game will probably be even, so you bet Kansas 1400 to win 1400.

If Michigan wins, then you take 3800 minus 1400 minus 500 = 900 as profit.
If Kansas wins, then 1400 minus 500 you put on loyola = 900

If they play Villanova, michigan will be about 5 pt dogs. Which will make them -250 favs.

So you bet 2500 to win 1000 on villy.

Villy wins, then you take 1000 minus 500 to get 500.
If michigan wins, then you take 3800 minus 2500 minus 500 = 800

So
loyola wins 1125
Kansas wins 900
Michigan wins 900
Villy wins 500

If you don't think loyola will win it all, then put less on them. You can change the amounts to get different numbers, but just giving you an idea on how can do it. This is a very conservative way to do it to try to get something no matter which team wins. However, you do it the way you want. If you want the 4300, then let it ride. It's your money.

ChrisCovers

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 184

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 2:00 PM ET #29

Correction..... if michigan wins, it's 1900, not 900.

ChrisCovers

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 184

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 2:02 PM ET #30

correction..... disregard the part where i wrote

loyola wins 1125
Kansas wins 900
Michigan wins 900
Villy wins 500

and just look at the parts i wrote above that.

GarySanders

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Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 1151

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 2:13 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by Tomkopec:

I'm from Michigan and its gonna bea riot down in Ann Arbor!!! GO BLUE!!! Hedge out +5.5 for 500-800?? Why not? People who are saying let it ride are not the smartest. Take a profit when its available. BOL

Loyola 97 Michigan 40

HarryKnutsak

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2017

Posts: 329

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 3:17 PM ET #32

I don't think he's hedging...Of course he owns a casino so the money doesn't matter so much.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/las-vegas-casino-owner-2-michigan-wins-away-from-1m-payday/

DoubleUp4Life

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 5:23 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak:

I don't think he's hedging...Of course he owns a casino so the money doesn't matter so much.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/las-vegas-casino-owner-2-michigan-wins-away-from-1m-payday/

Wow .... good for him....hope we cash

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 5:24 PM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Tomkopec:

I'm from Michigan and its gonna bea riot down in Ann Arbor!!! GO BLUE!!!

Hedge out +5.5 for 500-800??

Why not? People who are saying let it ride are not the smartest. Take a profit when its available.

BOL

Thanks Brother ...I agree , have to hedge ...Need profit

BEST OF LUCK

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 5:49 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by GarySanders:

Loyola by 30....might wanna hit up some of those crazy alt lines

Anything is possible , but do have any of that bud left Brother ???

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

DoubleUp4Life

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 30, 2018 - 5:54 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by ChrisCovers:

Loyola is ML +225.

You can put 500 to win 1125 on Loyola.

If Michigan wins, then you take 4300 minus 500 = 3800 into the final game.

If they play Kansas, the game will probably be even, so you bet Kansas 1400 to win 1400.

If Michigan wins, then you take 3800 minus 1400 minus 500 = 900 as profit.
If Kansas wins, then 1400 minus 500 you put on loyola = 900

If they play Villanova, michigan will be about 5 pt dogs. Which will make them -250 favs.

So you bet 2500 to win 1000 on villy.

Villy wins, then you take 1000 minus 500 to get 500.
If michigan wins, then you take 3800 minus 2500 minus 500 = 800

So
loyola wins 1125
Kansas wins 900
Michigan wins 900
Villy wins 500

If you don't think loyola will win it all, then put less on them. You can change the amounts to get different numbers, but just giving you an idea on how can do it. This is a very conservative way to do it to try to get something no matter which team wins. However, you do it the way you want. If you want the 4300, then let it ride. It's your money.

Thanks you brother for your time spent posting this ....

For now i am thinking of Loyola +6 for $400....Hopefully that loses though ...

ROOTING FOR KANSAS , bc as you mention Kansas would likely be about even vs Michigan ( maybe a slight chalk ) .....

APPRECIATE YOUR WORK

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

HarryKnutsak

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Joined: Oct, 2017

Posts: 329

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 2:45 AM ET #37

Looks like he did after all...

Stevens hedges his bet

Las Vegas casino owner Derek Stevens hopes Loyola-Chicago doesn’t hijack his chance to win $1 million on Michigan. He’s two wins from cashing his $25,000 futures ticket on the Wolverines at 40-1 odds.

Stevens, who owns the D Las Vegas and Golden Gate, hedged his bet by placing a $25,000 money-line wager on the Ramblers at plus 210 and a $25,000 straight bet on Loyola-Chicago as a 5-point underdog.

“Those are the two biggest bets I’ve ever made that I hope I lose,” Stevens said. “We just have to figure out how we’re going to beat Sister Jean on Holy Saturday.”

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 8:53 AM ET #38

Quote Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak:

QUOTE Originally Posted by HarryKnutsak: I don't think he's hedging...Of course he owns a casino so the money doesn't matter so much.https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/las-vegas-casino-owner-2-michigan-wins-away-from-1m-payday/ Looks like he did after all...Stevens hedges his bet Las Vegas casino owner Derek Stevens hopes Loyola-Chicago doesn’t hijack his chance to win $1 million on Michigan. He’s two wins from cashing his $25,000 futures ticket on the Wolverines at 40-1 odds. Stevens, who owns the D Las Vegas and Golden Gate, hedged his bet by placing a $25,000 money-line wager on the Ramblers at plus 210 and a $25,000 straight bet on Loyola-Chicago as a 5-point underdog. “Those are the two biggest bets I’ve ever made that I hope I lose,” Stevens said. “We just have to figure out how we’re going to beat Sister Jean on Holy Saturday.”

Yeah smart man i guess ....

Time for me to hedge as well ....

LOYOLA +5.5. $605/550

Actually getting this +6 , but i never count local lines on covers so +5.5 it is..

I dont see the Ramblers winning , and believe they will have a hard time keeping within the spread

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

charlielo55

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2006

Posts: 2844

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 2:05 PM ET #39

Double, I haven't read the previous posts, but given Mich is a 5 pt favorite, I would let it ride today, then hedge in the final. That's why the call it gambling.....good luck man peace_5

Mananddogs

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2018

Posts: 856

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 2:34 PM ET #40

IF you haven't actually pulled the trigger yet...

Play +6.5... buy a pt... AND put at least SOME $$ on the ML

520/400 on Loy Chi +6.5... 180 to win 414 on ml...

IF Mich blows em out... you lose 700.. Mich alive on Mon nite (where u hedge again)

IF Mich wins by 1-6 you win 220 today... advance to Mon

IF Loy Chi pulls the upset, you win 814 (-50 on mich future) +764 day

just do da math... make some $$$

JagHole

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2018

Posts: 80

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 4:54 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by acer00:

You really can't figure this out or is this just another look at me post?

Bitter about your Virginia future ?

LOL

JagHole

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2018

Posts: 80

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 4:55 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by GarySanders:

wow michigan was really 100-1 at one point?

Michigan was over 100 during the season... 3 weeks before the dance they were still 81-1 on bet365. That's when I got them. Props to anyone who hit them prior.

Wood0121

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 40

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 5:28 PM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Whats Up Brothers ???

Love seeing Michigan as the Chalk vs Loyola Chicago ....Plenty of Options to Hedge from here on out ....

.DO I HEDGE A % NOW WITH LOYOLA ML ??? OR PLUS THE POINTS ????

OR DO I WAIT UNTIL the CHAMPIONSHIP GAME and Hedge with NOVA OR KANSAS ??? , who will likely be the Chalk over Michigan

MICHIGAN

80-1 $35/2800

100-1. $15/1500

Invested around $200 in Losing NCAABB futures

Having a Decent Tourney so Far

9-3-1 +$589.50

IMHO gotta ride out Mich @ least v. Loyola

In a good spot with Mich today - Sure Loyola could win but why throw $$ away with another game to go

HarryKnutsak

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2017

Posts: 329

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 5:41 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Yeah smart man i guess ....

Time for me to hedge as well ....

LOYOLA +5.5. $605/550

Actually getting this +6 , but i never count local lines on covers so +5.5 it is..

I dont see the Ramblers winning , and believe they will have a hard time keeping within the spread

I don't see them winning either. It's fine to shoot a bit at a middle though. Think Mich by 8-10. GL

Skanless1

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 5996

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 5:50 PM ET #45

DU: in this situation, i would probably put something like $200 on Loyola ML, and then $400 on the +6

Achilles1629

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Joined: Sep, 2015

Posts: 12504

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 5:50 PM ET #46

Hedge.

DoubleUp4Life

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Posts: 66896

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 8:18 PM ET #47

$3695 If Michigan wins the Championship ...

Hoping Kansas wins now, My guess would be that either team vould be a favorite by 2 or less ...

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12150

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 8:43 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Your in great spot to middle the hedge, taking the points.

Loyola has been very lucky thus far with the no. 1 and no. 2 seed getting beaten in their bracket and they needed to play the 7 and 9 seed instead of what could have been a 1 or 2 seed.

They only needed to beat one top seed, no. 3 Tenn by 1 pt, lower seeded teams can beat a top seed once in awhile but doing it twice in the same tournament might be a very long shot to happen.

They survived the lower seeded bracket is all that happened here. Hey, some team had to survive , just happened to be them.

Highly, highly likely Mich moves on and I think they cover as well, but I could be wrong, but personally I think Michigan will get the cover either with a larger margin win or in a close game get the cover late in the game.

yep Michigan gets it done,

Michigan would be the likely call to cover in the Finals.

-LB-

Hall of Fame

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 23180

Posted: Mar. 31, 2018 - 8:49 PM ET #49

Bol DBL!

theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12150

Posted: Apr. 1, 2018 - 9:10 AM ET #50

Now would be the time to hedge. Michigan may cover but not likely to win SU.

I would get at least a 50-50 split on either team winning but get more if Nova wins which is more likely.

I would not ride Michigan out till the end.

Michigan is a bit challenged offensively, very strong on def, better then Nova but not close on off, these type teams do have a history of getting blown out in the finals.

Michigan is horrendous on 3's, shooting below 27% in 3 of 5 games and below 31.5% in 4 of 5 games.

Nova has been shooting hot and cold in the tournament, followed 50% or better shooting performance with a below 40% performance.

Nova had by far worst shooting performance VS Texas Tech the game before Kansas, 33.3 % and a horrendous 4 of 24 on 3's.

Nova was due a regression VS Kansas and had maybe their best game of the tournament.

But now considering quality of opp may of had their best game by far in tournament may be the entire year which is not sustainable, very possible they do not play as well offensively as they did VS Kansas.

Michigan shot below 45% in 4 of 5 games and below 42.5% in 3 of 5 games, teams like this don't win the title very often.

The champion normally has a off median of 47% or better. Michigan is 42.4%. Nova 50%.

Other indicators do point to Michigan at least covering

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