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When do I HEDGE my MICHIGAN 100-1/80-1 FUTURES ???

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Posted: #76

Woodbine in Toronto?

Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Woodbine in Toronto?


Yes Brother ....I love the 20 cent pick 4's ..... usually hit 2-3 huge ones every year .... and lose a bunch as well
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Posted: #78
Much love D-UP. Leggo boyz. Michigan should cover, but Nova is Nova...
 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers: Woodbine in Toronto? Yes Brother ....I love the 20 cent pick 4's ..... usually hit 2-3 huge ones every year .... and lose a bunch as well

Do they have live poker there? Or still those machines?

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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Oh shoot sorry D-up....didn't send it! Was in a rush to get to the off-track!

In the 7th....keyed win4 to #2 Roy/Moreau....but that race is pretty much an ALL 

Nice call Brother ...

I LOVE THE ROY MOREAU COMBO
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Do they have live poker there? Or still those machines?


 dont know Brother 

I only play poker at seneca us, or Fallsview across the river 


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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


Here is my early pick 4 

Race 4.    3,4,5,7,8,
Race 5      1,5,6,
Race 6.      6,7 
Race 7.       2,6,7,9
Cost $24  for 20 cents 

Sorry you didnt get the first leg bra...
Good call on Big Rich in the 3rd leg.....been waiting for him to pop and laid off tonight. I left him out so I am busted.....I see my #2 won in the last leg.....figures...fukk...lol
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Posted: #83
Get the hell out NOW!!!
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by mfrancesa:

Get the hell out NOW!!!

I dont have that option ...

No money in 5d or online ....and my local who matches them is giving me no options ....

Up around $2600 on college basketball this season ( rare)   Thanks mainly to Middling U at Buffalo games 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Do they have live poker there? Or still those machines?


I live in T.O Packers....not sure. I have not been up to watch the big track in a while. I mostly do online or go to an off-track bar. 

Horses are big hear. Pots are huge for pick5 and pick4
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:


Sorry you didnt get the first leg bra...
Good call on Big Rich in the 3rd leg.....been waiting for him to pop and laid off tonight. I left him out so I am busted.....I see my #2 won in the last leg.....figures...fukk...lol


My nickname at the Wehrle OTB is  MR. 3 OUT OF 4 

Big Rich was ice cold until tonight 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


 dont know Brother 

I only play poker at seneca us, or Fallsview across the river 



Double up, lets do some Fallsview poker one of these times. I havent played in 7 years....wow. I would love to hook up and then do some degenerate horses off-track somewhere. I am good in the summer. It would be a blast. I am a friendly 52 yr old Canuck who loves his sports! You seem like a good dude. I also come to watch Bisons games...checking out the Jays Triple AAA team.
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:



My nickname at the Wehrle OTB is  MR. 3 OUT OF 4 

Big Rich was ice cold until tonight 

Been there in stretches ....no I zone in and go contrarian in obvious races sometimes.....only way to hit the BIG-1 
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Posted: #89

Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

QUOTE Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: My nickname at the Wehrle OTB is  MR. 3 OUT OF 4 Big Rich was ice cold until tonight  Been there in stretches ....no I zone in and go contrarian in obvious races sometimes.....only way to hit the BIG-1

 

At least it was close an_roll_laughan_roll_laugh. Terrible play on my part!!

 
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Posted: #90
Watching the game with my Kids was priceless...

Donte Divincenzo was Fantastic ....

We were going silly on his BLOCK .....
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:


Thanks Brother 

I dookied out in the first leg ....

Thanks for posting all ypur picks brother 

Appreciate your time 


Late pick 4 

Race  7    1,2,5,6,7,9
Race 8.      5,7
Race 9.     1,2,3
Race 10.    1,7 8,9,10


$36

Wish i would have spent more ... was tempted to go larger ..

BUDDY who played the pick 4  for $1 hit for $941 


Winner pick 4 =   Loved watching the 7 horse  win (pink   ) the last leg and pay $188.20 


Gave this one away to a couple of old respected cats at Clinton Otb 
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Posted: #92
I could have lied and said I was betting Nova before the Final 4 , but the local stopped matching 5 dimes futures amd props until further notice ...got Pissed when i was pounding soccer and middling U AT BUFFALO BASKETBALL games a few months back...
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Now would be the time to hedge. Michigan may cover but not likely to win SU.

I would get at least a 50-50 split on either  team winning but get more if Nova wins which is more likely.

I would not ride Michigan out till the end.

Michigan is a bit challenged offensively, very strong on def, better then Nova but not close on off, these type teams do have a history of getting blown out in the finals.

Michigan is horrendous on 3's, shooting below 27% in 3 of 5 games and below 31.5% in 4 of 5 games.

Nova has been shooting hot and cold in the tournament, followed 50% or better  shooting performance with a below 40% performance.

Nova had by far worst shooting performance VS Texas Tech the game before Kansas, 33.3 % and a horrendous 4 of 24 on 3's.

Nova was due a regression VS Kansas and had maybe their best game of the tournament.

 But now considering  quality of opp may of had their best game by far in tournament may be the entire year  which is not sustainable, very possible they do not play as well offensively as they did VS Kansas.

Michigan shot below 45% in 4 of 5 games and below 42.5% in 3 of 5 games, teams like this don't win the title very often.

The champion normally has a off median of 47% or better. Michigan is 42.4%. Nova 50%.

Other indicators do point to Michigan at least covering 


At the end of the day, Michigan was to challenged  offensively to hang with Nova.

Nova did have a regression to start the game, they could not buy a basket, but Mich could not do much themselves, had they any kind of off they would have easily built a 15 pt lead .

Mich shot 43.6% almost right on their median FG% coming in and once again they were horrendous on 3's, 3 of 23 , 13%

Nova actually played not that great a game for them based on how they played coming in, 47.4 %, their 4th worst, and 37% on 3's, their 5th worst game in tournament of 6 games played.

4 of Nova's starters went 10 of 30, 33.3% and 2 of 13 on 3's, 15.4%, those same 4 players went 27 of 49 , 55.1 % VS Kansas and 12 of 28 on 3's 42.9 %.

Nova did have a regression playing one of it's worst games in tournament but it did not matter as offensively challenged Mich kept the history of such teams alive getting blown-out in the finals once again.

Hopefully you hedged and score a nice profit for yourself. Tough to come that far and go home empty handed.
 
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Posted: #94

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

QUOTE Originally Posted by theclaw: Now would be the time to hedge. Michigan may cover but not likely to win SU.I would get at least a 50-50 split on either  team winning but get more if Nova wins which is more likely.I would not ride Michigan out till the end.Michigan is a bit challenged offensively, very strong on def, better then Nova but not close on off, these type teams do have a history of getting blown out in the finals.Michigan is horrendous on 3's, shooting below 27% in 3 of 5 games and below 31.5% in 4 of 5 games.Nova has been shooting hot and cold in the tournament, followed 50% or better  shooting performance with a below 40% performance.Nova had by far worst shooting performance VS Texas Tech the game before Kansas, 33.3 % and a horrendous 4 of 24 on 3's.Nova was due a regression VS Kansas and had maybe their best game of the tournament. But now considering  quality of opp may of had their best game by far in tournament may be the entire year  which is not sustainable, very possible they do not play as well offensively as they did VS Kansas.Michigan shot below 45% in 4 of 5 games and below 42.5% in 3 of 5 games, teams like this don't win the title very often.The champion normally has a off median of 47% or better. Michigan is 42.4%. Nova 50%.Other indicators do point to Michigan at least covering  At the end of the day, Michigan was to challenged  offensively to hang with Nova.Nova did have a regression to start the game, they could not buy a basket, but Mich could not do much themselves, had they any kind of off they would have easily built a 15 pt lead .Mich shot 43.6% almost right on their median FG% coming in and once again they were horrendous on 3's, 3 of 23 , 13%Nova actually played not that great a game for them based on how they played coming in, 47.4 %, their 4th worst, and 37% on 3's, their 5th worst game in tournament of 6 games played.4 of Nova's starters went 10 of 30, 33.3% and 2 of 13 on 3's, 15.4%, those same 4 players went 27 of 49 , 55.1 % VS Kansas and 12 of 28 on 3's 42.9 %.Nova did have a regression playing one of it's worst games in tournament but it did not matter as offensively challenged Mich kept the history of such teams alive getting blown-out in the finals once again.Hopefully you hedged and score a nice profit for yourself. Tough to come that far and go home empty handed.

 

No hedge brother ... My best local limited me to 1k / 333 bet hours before the game.... I guess most locals here got crushed , as some had the line -8.5 before tip ..... Everyone watched Nova hammer Kansas , and came back and pounded Nova last night ..... 

 

I coukd have lied , and said i hedged 3k to win a grand , but ill keep my integrity 

BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:


Double up, lets do some Fallsview poker one of these times. I havent played in 7 years....wow. I would love to hook up and then do some degenerate horses off-track somewhere. I am good in the summer. It would be a blast. I am a friendly 52 yr old Canuck who loves his sports! You seem like a good dude. I also come to watch Bisons games...checking out the Jays Triple AAA team.

Sounds Great Brother ....Appreciate the offer , Lets make it happen this summer ....

A few otbs here in wny have Bars/great food ...They take a cut , but you get it back in cold beers and awesome eats ...lol

Fallsview has gotten crazy ...Need a DEEP ROLL to play BINGO / ALL IN POKER ....Have a rare sour taste after someome Called 1484 into 870 when they needed low %  runner ,runners and caught a straight flush to beat my Boat( i flopped)...lol....999 out 1000 times you want that caller ..... lately I have seen 3-5 players calling all ins for large amounts with horrible hands ....Also ran into a old friend that told me there are TEAMS of PLAYERS at almost every table ....

SENECA has turned into a club of people that all know each others game ... People often talk too much at the
 Table , and cost pot winners ,more money ..  FREE BEER , but dont enjoy the next morning headaches ...Been sticking to home games every few weeks ...

Bisons should have a good team this season .... Praying for health on your JAYS,  .....ENJOYED watching SMOAK BLOW UP YHE YANKEES the other day .... Locals here in Buffalo get so much old man Yankee homer money , Lines are often off by 70 cents or more ..  I live 7 MINUTES from "PILOT FIELD", ....Bisons game would be cool , we would have to get some money down at OTB Before hand ..

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Posted: #96
Bisons game sounds good....play a couple of big Pick 4 tickets and some beers....follow the races on our phones as we watch the Bisons game would be unreal man.  If we won, I would say invest it in your plays or, we keep playing Pick4's from WNY which is good for me because its in USD....I learned that in Vegas. Payouts in USD that I hit were sweet.

I am all about having a good time and making some extra cash to have some fun, take a trip, take the wifey out for a good meal or let her go shopping. 

So, I like the plan. Sounds good. I will call you up on this in July and August. Would be sweet....talk some football/horses...whatever.
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Posted: #97

I used to play every weekend at Fallview from Friday-Sunday before getting married...it was a gong show 10 years ago, i can only inmagine what its become now with all the millenials and rich asian kids coming over with millions to blow every month...and yes even back then there were always minimum 3-4 people on each table playing together, and the big 25-50NL weekend games had up to 7 people playing ringers...i was always the lone wolf and shoved back into their own bs moves and collusion traps...i ended up breaking up one of the more infamous teams there over a 6month stretch where they simply couldnt outdraw me or 2 outer me...made a lifetimes worth in that room before the WPT came calling...thats when i quit because the game truly became a rich mans bingo....most old school calculated grinders like myself must have gone broke over the past decade if it continued to be anyrhing like it was when i got out....best pokerroom in Canada right now is Playground Poker Club just outside Montreal on native land...i go there once a year with my poker buddies who are now spread out all over Canada, just to chill out and let loose for a long weekend...always best times to play there are during WPT events or other major tournys....i remember being there on opening night years ago and knew it was going to be awesome...even had an offer to invest into the club and be a 1% owner...at the time it would have cleaned out my entire bankroll as a young upstart kid grinding away as a poker player, so i politely turned the offer down...one of the few regrets i have, however when i think about it like that, i have to remind myself just how differently my life path would have been had i said yes...i surely wouldnt have met my wife and had the wonderful kids and family i have now, so there really is no true regret, just wonder how different my life would have turned out had i taken that risk back in the day....thats life!

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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:

Bisons game sounds good....play a couple of big Pick 4 tickets and some beers....follow the races on our phones as we watch the Bisons game would be unreal man.  If we won, I would say invest it in your plays or, we keep playing Pick4's from WNY which is good for me because its in USD....I learned that in Vegas. Payouts in USD that I hit were sweet.

I am all about having a good time and making some extra cash to have some fun, take a trip, take the wifey out for a good meal or let her go shopping. 

So, I like the plan. Sounds good. I will call you up on this in July and August. Would be sweet....talk some football/horses...whatever.

Sounds great Brother ....July august would be perfect ...Lets make it happen ..

 Bisons games are Fun ... There are a few south Buffalo otb's close to "pilot field"... Last year when it was just the Mrs. And I , we would load up on a few pick 4's and watch them at the bisons game ( like u mentioned ) ... She hit one of the largest pick 4's at Buffalo raceway , crazy that a TORNADO destroyed the Track a week later 

( what are odds on Tornado in hamburg??)


Been enjoying the Jays 4 game win streak ....Made some long shot bets on them to win the divison with the local at great odds ..
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Posted: #99
Sounds good D-Up. I told my wife you and I can do a game first/with some horses and then the 2nd time we would get the gals involved too....nice summer night....a few drinks in the stands/peanuts, etc. My wife is crazy about Olive Garden because we can't get it anymore in Canada so she says we can eat there too....lol.

 I will put in a friends request so that we can exchange info via inboxes when the time is right. 

I will cap the Pick4 tomorrow. I will play only if there are some good medium to long keys. I will let you know what i come up with. Do the same likewise.....you are a good capper too. I might blend some of your horses I don't have. The Big Rich play was a nice snag the other day!

Cheers
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Posted: #100
Hey D-up....its been a while since I put in a friends request. How do I do it again? lol.... Either that, send me a friends request and then I can honour it so we can converse in the future via inbox. 
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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