C. ND just played two half-court set offenses who have long offensive possessions
Remember I talked about the previous conditioning for a team when you pick them? It's like working out. How can you bench press effectively if you haven't lifted in two months?
Michigan and Austin both play in the half court running down the shot clock. ND won both games (barely in the second but they won both) and now they get yet another half court set offense.
That is conditioning folks. Austin may be a 14 seed but what a tremendous tune-up for ND to play Wisky, no?
Wisconsin on the other hand had Pitt to condition them for Xavier, bigs pounding the boards and nailing you down low. It worked out beautifully for them and they also got two wins.
But while ND plays a third consecutive similar team on offense (and even defense with Austin), Wisky will have to reinvent itself for something new.
And another note on Austin...
D. How did Notre Dame shoot so well and almost lose to Stephen F. Austin?
TURNOVERS.
They had 13 against Austin and 16 against Michigan.
But note, 13 is actually pretty good against Austin who force a mind-boggling 19 TO's a game (#1 in the nation). That's like boot camp before the war.
And ND's season average? 10th best in the nation in fewest TO's with 10 a game.
Folks if ND shoots as well as they have the past two games and reduce the TO's to their average or below, they would have won the past two games far more comfortably than what you saw.
That's on the table for this game as Wisconsin is, remarkably, 240th in the nation in forcing turnovers (right around where Tulane is at!).
Another edge for ND?
E. Coaching
ND's Brey has been to the NCAA tournament in 11 of 16 years coaching.
355-176 at ND
Greg Gard 15-7. First NCAA tournament.
Bo Ryan obviously caused all this and make no mistake, the job Gard has done has been tremendous.
But we saw a similar coaching disparity with Gonzaga and Seton Hall when we took Gonzaga didn't we. Big time coaches typically get it done in the tournament. There is an edge to be had there.
But even more so, Brey has this team believing in itself. He continually talks about the team's 'destiny' to get back to the Elite 8 where they lost to Kentucky last year and redeem themselves.
People give such talk a hand wave but it's not about destiny at all, it's about belief. And he has gotten this team to believe in itself and the players are buying in especially after losing a player like Grant last year while still advancing in this tournament.
They really have reinvented themselves.
Now I look at Wisconsin. No Kaminsky, No Dekker and a new HC. Now they rely wholly on in your face D but how far is that D going to take them? While Kansas, Villanova, and Virginia are still in the tournament, they also rank near the top in offensive efficiency in the Kenpom ratings. Wisconsin is all the way down at 87th. That's a big disparity.
Finally, do I like Matt Farrell at PG for ND (I know some of you here will point that out)? I'm not crazy about it. But like Wisky the past two games, the kid showed me some guts against a ferocious half court D against Austin.
Wisconsin wants to keep the game close and win in closing minutes. Folks, that's a lot to ask. They nearly coughed put the first game and it took a reincarnation of Curry to win the second. Now they go to the Sweet 16 against a better coached team, a team looking for redemption after the loss to Kentucky (who they went toe to toe with and this is powerful psychological motivator for this year as a goal to get to the same round), and a team that is one of the most offensively efficient in the tournament.
And can Wisconsin hold a lead? They trailed almost the entire Pitt game and jumped out to a 17-8 lead against Xavier but their poor shooting left them trailing at the half. Their offensive woes and lulls do them in (even though the last two games resulted in victories).
Wisconsin was a Final Four team the past two years. These players have that experience. But is this group with no bench and experiencing shooting woes at the worst time with a brand new HC in the tournament, going to top ND in this spot?
That's a lot to 'play it close against' which Wisconsin loves to do. And we don't have a line to worry about. I see a close game and Wisconsin has the guts and the D to keep it close with any team, but in the end, I see one team prevailing.
While leads to the pick:
Notre Dame -1 over Wisconsin
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