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You'll hate this play

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Posted: #1
If this line was where it should be(Villanova-2) the public would be killing Nova. So they jack it waaaaay up to Nova-7 and look at all the Michign love up and down this forum. Michigan this, Michigan that, 7 is too many blah blah blah
No doubt this is gonna be an epic battle, Novas deep talent, Beilein masterful coaching, Nova free throw % will be the difference late

Public is pretty split now do to this over inflated line

Im rolling 

Villanova-5(buying 2 for insurance)

Nova ml/Astros ml parlay

goodluck
 
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

If this line was where it should be(Villanova-2) the public would be killing Nova. So they jack it waaaaay up to Nova-7 and look at all the Michign love up and down this forum. Michigan this, Michigan that, 7 is too many blah blah blah
No doubt this is gonna be an epic battle, Novas deep talent, Beilein masterful coaching, Nova free throw % will be the difference late

Public is pretty split now do to this over inflated line

Im rolling 

Villanova-5(buying 2 for insurance)

Nova ml/Astros ml parlay

goodluck



Public $ is split?     
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Posted: #3

Good Luck gtnp..Yeah all I see is Play of Year, Locks and all that BS for Michigan..I think people are giving them to much credit..If it wasn't for a lucky ass shot they wouldn't of even beat Houston..That's been there, toughest task..I personally think they get smoked by 12-15..We will see..

 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Gatorbite:

Good Luck gtnp..Yeah all I see is Play of Year, Locks and all that BS for Michigan..I think people are giving them to much credit..If it wasn't for a lucky behind shot they wouldn't of even beat Houston..That's been there, toughest task..I personally think they get smoked by 12-15..We will see..




The past is an illusion!
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Posted: #5

Nova first half ML $172 to win $80.

If I need to make a Nova in-game wager later I will but I'm liking the first half.

GL
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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Posted: #6

The betting market sets the line. You are correct, people would’ve pounded nova at -2 and that’s why it’s not -2. Not so sure about this angle. Yes, when books take huge money on nova, they widen the spread to lure Michigan bettors. If you think the spread should be -2, then you are getting 5 points of value on Michigan because everyone’s pounding nova lol. That’s called sound logic. 

 
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Posted: #7
what?

 
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Posted: #8
power ratings, saragin rating all show Nova by 2, if they post Nova-2 they know where the the money would dump. Nova-7 is fishing for Michigan money and its doing just that, its about 60% Nova from what im seeing. And for the guy that said thats not split left out the key word "pretty split". Vegas wants Michigan money folks this line shouldnt be 7. If vegas wants MIchigan money ill bet villanova!
Thank you and goodnight, no gauruntees in gambling folks but ill live and die to what works for me

goodluck tonight


















 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Bling11:

The betting market sets the line. You are correct, people would’ve pounded nova at -2 and that’s why it’s not -2. Not so sure about this angle. Yes, when books take huge money on nova, they widen the spread to lure Michigan bettors. If you think the spread should be -2, then you are getting 5 points of value on Michigan because everyone’s pounding nova lol. That’s called sound logic. 




Oh, that's what the books do, eh? They don't play any games to suck in public, or sharp money? Come on now!
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Posted: #10
record 64-53

win or lose tonight made it through thetourney on the plus side, couldve been better. got a little sloppy in the middle of the madness
 
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Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

what?

I get you are saying the books are trying to lure Michigan bettors because they feel it will be a blowout. But the books aren’t always picking sides. If they are setting a line to get 50/50 action and you believe the line should be 2 points, you are getting a boat load of value at 7.

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

power ratings, saragin rating all show Nova by 2, if they post Nova-2 they know where the the money would dump. Nova-7 is fishing for Michigan money and its doing just that, its about 60% Nova from what im seeing. And for the guy that said thats not split left out the key word "pretty split". Vegas wants Michigan money folks this line shouldnt be 7. If vegas wants MIchigan money ill bet villanova!
Thank you and goodnight, no gauruntees in gambling folks but ill live and die to what works for me

goodluck tonight


I'm seeing Vill $ above 60%. That's far from split when dealing with billions of dollars. I will admit, this % has been dropping this afternoon. GL!


















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Posted: #13

You are overthinking. Every Joe Shmo on the street is talking about how nova will blow the doors off Michigan. Public perception. 

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bling11:

I get you are saying the books are trying to lure Michigan bettors because they feel it will be a blowout. But the books aren’t always picking sides. If they are setting a line to get 50/50 action and you believe the line should be 2 points, you are getting a boat load of value at 7.



Why the fook would books try to draw 50/50 action when they can lure the ratio to 65/35, and clean up? Make sense? I've never believed that 50/50 take the juice bullsheet! The world thrives on greed! Always will. It's the books middle name.
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Posted: #15
wrong! they want 50/50. no risk all reward
 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

If this line was where it should be(Villanova-2) the public would be killing Nova. So they jack it waaaaay up to Nova-7 and look at all the Michign love up and down this forum. Michigan this, Michigan that, 7 is too many blah blah blahNo doubt this is gonna be an epic battle, Novas deep talent, Beilein masterful coaching, Nova free throw % will be the difference latePublic is pretty split now do to this over inflated lineIm rolling Villanova-5(buying 2 for insurance)Nova ml/Astros ml parlaygoodluck

Same boat,  i am on parlay Astro ML+ Nova ML

BOL

 
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Posted: #17
bling just read through this forum, its a broken record that 7 is too much for nova to cover, only a handful of nova posts
 
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Posted: #18
bling question for ya? what you see final at? nova by 3,4.5????
or you think michigan outright? 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

wrong! they want 50/50. no risk all reward



:>))   GL!
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Posted: #20
gl jpot, who knows how this is gonna play out, this is the fun part guessong
 
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Posted: #21
As it stands right now. There's no way in h*ll I'd put one penny on Vill. minus anything. The whole fooking worlds on them. You might win, but risk to reward (as you say) is pathetic!
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

bling just read through this forum, its a broken record that 7 is too much for nova to cove, only a handful of nova posts

i know and that does scare me lol. But I walk into my office and have to hear co workers who do not watch Bball tell me nova will be up 12 by half. 60% of public is still high as well. I think Michigan has to play nearly perfect to win. But like their toughness, they’re battle tested, and can get hot. Thinking it’ll be tight 

 
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Posted: #23
you on michigan ml+280?
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

gl jpot, who knows how this is gonna play out, this is the fun part guessong



I hear ya. Just be careful how much you bet. I am.
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Posted: #25
i think itll be tight too late, nova is solid from the line, so michigan makes a 3 pointer or 2 theyll cover the 7, if they dont novas gonna cover. Just my honest guess
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