Favorites of 18.5 or more after being a dog of 24 or more last week and 33.5 or more in last two weeks combined are 0-15 ATS, losing ATS by 3 touchdowns per game on average. Converted to this game, the system tells us that this game will be extremely close, maybe even going to OT.
Underdogs after losing by 22-38 points as favorites of 7.5-19.5 points are 10-0 ATS against teams that were underdogs of more than 4 pts last week. These underdogs are covering by 14 ppg. This system tells us that Nevada should win by 7.
My ratings line is Nevada -14. I know that many will say that my ratings are no good if they show Nevada just 11 points better than UNLV (+3 points for the home field), but thats OK. I trust my ratings because they give me winners week after week.
Putting it all in perspective, I expect Nevada to win by about 7, and UNLV to cover this spread rather easily. But I will gladly take a backdoor cover too. Remember, Nevada played Boise last week, and that was a big game for them, and Texas Tech in an amazing shoutout the week before. They probably have very little energy left in their tank. Even if they jump ahead against UNLV, I can see them getting tired at one point later in the game.
regular 1 unit plays: bc +21, van +29
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UNLV +21
Favorites of 18.5 or more after being a dog of 24 or more last week and 33.5 or more in last two weeks combined are 0-15 ATS, losing ATS by 3 touchdowns per game on average. Converted to this game, the system tells us that this game will be extremely close, maybe even going to OT.
Underdogs after losing by 22-38 points as favorites of 7.5-19.5 points are 10-0 ATS against teams that were underdogs of more than 4 pts last week. These underdogs are covering by 14 ppg. This system tells us that Nevada should win by 7.
My ratings line is Nevada -14. I know that many will say that my ratings are no good if they show Nevada just 11 points better than UNLV (+3 points for the home field), but thats OK. I trust my ratings because they give me winners week after week.
Putting it all in perspective, I expect Nevada to win by about 7, and UNLV to cover this spread rather easily. But I will gladly take a backdoor cover too. Remember, Nevada played Boise last week, and that was a big game for them, and Texas Tech in an amazing shoutout the week before. They probably have very little energy left in their tank. Even if they jump ahead against UNLV, I can see them getting tired at one point later in the game.
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