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2018 Bowl Under system... 37 - 3 in 2017... Lets Do it Again!

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Posted: #601
1st and 2nd H lines never showed on Arz on 5D...Triple check, especially 2nd H.  No 1st H line on MSU
 
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Posted: #602

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

OK, assuming you got the MTSU line before it dropped, 1st halfs (1u) are now 8-12-1 for -5.2...2nd halfs (2u) now 9-3, +11.4. If you didn't catch the MTSU line 2Hs are 8-4, +7.2. So far you've risked 48 units over 20 games to win either 6.2u or 2u. I'm glad you're all plus to this point, but this is a far more accurate representation of the system than "17-3-1 or 16-4-1." You get far more "wins" than you get dollars.

Would be interested in seeing 1h o/u record for last bowl season. Also, it seems like the over is hitting in the first half on an increasing basis as we get further into bowl season. Better teams with better offenses as we get closer to the CFP?

If the 1h over is hitting on a 60% clip, it seems like it makes sense to bet the first half over and if it hits turn around and bet the 2h under.

Thoughts?

 
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Posted: #603

Also, I would not bet any under in a game involving Oklahoma State. If they're on they could score 31 in the first half by themselves. As a Big 12 fan, I've seen it and won on it alot.

 
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Posted: #604
Quote Originally Posted by JudgeBaylor:

Also, I would not bet any under in a game involving Oklahoma State. If they're on they could score 31 in the first half by themselves. As a Big 12 fan, I've seen it and won on it alot.


That comment right there is why I was waiting on first half over so that public statement would drive the line up... BUT after further research I understood why this line is in low 60s even though the public unloads on okie state overs... Va tech has the 16th most rushing attempts per game in all the fbs - expect close to 50 rushing attempts from va tech... 
 
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Posted: #605

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

QUOTE Originally Posted by garbagetime: OK, assuming you got the MTSU line before it dropped, 1st halfs (1u) are now 8-12-1 for -5.2...2nd halfs (2u) now 9-3, +11.4. If you didn't catch the MTSU line 2Hs are 8-4, +7.2. So far you've risked 48 units over 20 games to win either 6.2u or 2u. I'm glad you're all plus to this point, but this is a far more accurate representation of the system than "17-3-1 or 16-4-1." You get far more "wins" than you get dollars.  Couple things to point out... - I have pointed out probably 100 times a loss is -3.3 units... - Also the amount of units risked comment is absolutely hilarious - Ive said another 100 times we are using bankroll management... Do you know how many people are on this forum today and also  looking at other sites for "max plays of the year"  "bowl games of the year" etc?  That absolutely bury people... What about the guys who go 5 units on some plays and 1 unit on others?  - Outside of the New Years 6 Bowls games not a single person knows the motivation of these kids... The games mean nothing... I mean if people do not like it wager .2 units and .4 units I do not care... - In saying all this thought lets use your math:Instead of saying the system is 57 - 6 the last two bowl season - I will say its 57 - 19.8?  +37.2 units - is that better?

I said "units risked" based on what you guys are doing...1.1 risked on the 1st half unders, 2.2 risked on the second if the first half loses. It adds up to 48 risked.

 
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Posted: #606

Quote Originally Posted by JudgeBaylor:

QUOTE Originally Posted by garbagetime: OK, assuming you got the MTSU line before it dropped, 1st halfs (1u) are now 8-12-1 for -5.2...2nd halfs (2u) now 9-3, +11.4. If you didn't catch the MTSU line 2Hs are 8-4, +7.2. So far you've risked 48 units over 20 games to win either 6.2u or 2u. I'm glad you're all plus to this point, but this is a far more accurate representation of the system than "17-3-1 or 16-4-1." You get far more "wins" than you get dollars. Would be interested in seeing 1h o/u record for last bowl season. Also, it seems like the over is hitting in the first half on an increasing basis as we get further into bowl season. Better teams with better offenses as we get closer to the CFP? If the 1h over is hitting on a 60% clip, it seems like it makes sense to bet the first half over and if it hits turn around and bet the 2h under. Thoughts?

I wouldn't be inclined to bet first half overs blindly...I would imagine by the end of the bowl season it'll be close to 50-50. I also think that as we go further into the bowl schedule you should see less scoring, not more, as the better teams have better defenses and they are more experienced against other good offenses.

 
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Posted: #607
Jbone - seems like you have been the most active here... I literally have a meeting right at 2pm today and will not be able to post a second half move if we need to in game 1...

I think enough guys understand the key line moves... waiting or not waiting etc... I will be back for the later games... Thanks guys!
 
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Posted: #608

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

Jbone - seems like you have been the most active here... I literally have a meeting right at 2pm today and will not be able to post a second half move if we need to in game 1...I think enough guys understand the key line moves... waiting or not waiting etc... I will be back for the later games... Thanks guys!

No problem, got it.

 
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Posted: #609
Tbone I am back... Guys telling you this 2nd half total will drop fast again I believe... 
 
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Posted: #610
Seems like a majority of the low line totals are all cashing 1h. Maybe going over 1h is the way to go.
 
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Posted: #611

Glad u r, hoping for a 24.5

 
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Posted: #612
Not sure Virginia can stop Navy, the 2h line is going to look like the Army Sd St game last sat that hit both.
 
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Posted: #613
21.5 EEEEEKKK 
 
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Posted: #614

21.5 ....ugh

 
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Posted: #615
Under 21.5 +105 2xs
 
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Posted: #616
I know this ones painful boys lol
 
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Posted: #617
Blow out hopefully and run the clock out 
Positive Thinking Movement
 
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Posted: #618
Navy averaging 6.8 yds a rush they should put up 21 by themselves going to have to to hope Virginia stays silent on offense and limits turnovers
 
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Posted: #619
This Navy game looks like the FSU game yesterday.

Navy looks like they could cover the 2H over all by themselves.

And, the 2H UNDER is getting hammered on my book.

First it was 63.5... then 59.5... now it's 57.5!!! That's a full TD move!

Maybe VA is going to forfeit the game.
 
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Posted: #620
5D opened @ 22.5........LOCKED IN -105

They seem to always drop.
 
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Posted: #621

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

3 - 1 today... man I hate losing that first one... but uphill battle and we mostst of it back... System is:16 - 4 - 1or 17- 3 - 1 depending on that mtsu game line you gotCatch everyone tomorrow... 2 locked in so faruva under 27okie st under 31.5

Im going to play some unders with you today.

I see the records above and am wondering if a loss counts as -3 Units?

THNX

 
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Posted: #622
This is set up just like FSU yesterday my book offered 59.5 live then 58.5 now 57.5. Navy TT is 10.5? Wtf now that seems so easy.
 
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Posted: #623
I just heard that the Virginia defense just got into town and is getting suited up for the 2nd half maybe it keeps it under. Just a little humor in a terrible showing by Vigina I suppose they could be worse maybe if they didnt run the opening kick off back for a TD.. HAHA
 
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Posted: #624

Have you locked in to the other games for tonight or expecting movement ?

 
 
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Posted: #625
Navy TT 10.5 2h was a gift!!! 
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