All Forums | College Football

2018 Bowl Under system... 37 - 3 in 2017... Lets Do it Again!

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 118937
Posts: 917
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #651
ok msu is locked at 
23.5 first half under...
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1016
Posted: #652

There is another thread using Massey defensive ratings to point this out but believe that as we get closer to the playoffs we may need to dive a little deeper.  Using defensive YPP allowed only (from teamrankings . com), out of the 22 bowls played so far the better YPP allowed is 17-5 SU and ATS.  Of the 5 losses, 4 of those had a SOS of 100 or more (out of 129 teams) and the upsetting team had a stronger SOS in all of those (I'm using SOS from footballoutsiders). Also 2 out of the 5 losses were to armed forces schools.  You could say SDSU and Virginia defense didn't show up but those option academy schools are tough to go against and they don't give up.  Otherwise we really haven't seen a defensive "no show".  On the otherhand offenses have no showed (Oregon and Colorado St to a lesser extent, SMU and Toledo totally, and W. Virginia and UCLA due to QB injuries).  And for the most part we haven't seen a good offense struggle in the 1H and then come alive in the 2H (K-State and the Texas Tech/S. Florida game).

Kinda fits with how this bowl system has worked for so many years.  Maybe because offenses have to act where defenses just have to react?  Not sure but obviously need to look close at the defense.

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2016
Posts: 327
Posted: #653
Hey Roggs, are you playing any sides in these games or are you just happy to let this system roll?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1016
Posted: #654

Add to the total no shows:  SMU, Toledo, Missouri

Maybe for those looking to get involved in the side as well as these halftime totals this can help.  Live line after Va. Tech scored was still +3.5.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 2435
Posted: #655
What made you decide to lock MSU at 23.5?
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2012
Posts: 8310
Posted: #656
Another easy winner 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1016
Posted: #657

Winner on 1H so no play for 2H.  But to note it opened 30 and went to 28.5.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #658
Quote Originally Posted by Snowcrete:

Hey Roggs, are you playing any sides in these games or are you just happy to let this system roll?

I have played 2 sides until today....
I played app state and marshall... winners... full transparency I did take va tech tonight as the 3rd side... I have just been posting those on my twitter handle not to bog this thread down...

To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL... So with the significance of that - and watching totals for this system I have not broken down many sides
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 5927
Posted: #659
Are you on both  9:00 1H unders for TCU (u23 1/2) & MSU (u24 1/2)?
Thanks
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1016
Posted: #660

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Snowcrete: Hey Roggs, are you playing any sides in these games or are you just happy to let this system roll? I have played 2 sides until today....I played app state and marshall... winners... full transparency I did take va tech tonight as the 3rd side... I have just been posting those on my twitter handle not to bog this thread down...To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL... So with the significance of that - and watching totals for this system I have not broken down many sides

Cam Phillips being out for Va. Tech has certaintly hurt their red zone offense.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 5092
Posted: #661
wow, great job on the Hilton contest-what does 10th place get?

Watch out for teams needing to win not covering and visa versa...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #662
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

wow, great job on the Hilton contest-what does 10th place get?

Watch out for teams needing to win not covering and visa versa...

A lot just google it and the top 50 payouts... Been a stressful week
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2016
Posts: 1953
Posted: #663

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL...

FWIW I think the Lions will easily cover the -6.5 at home against GB. In a nothing game I can see the Lions rallying a little to do the double against the Packers and send off their coach with a W before his inevitable firing. The Packers, meanwhile, don't have anything to offer with Hundley there and you could really see last week that with the playoffs gone they didn't have the fire, nor do they have many receivers to go with their no-deep-ball QB.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2016
Posts: 1953
Posted: #664

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Roggs05: To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL...

FWIW I think the Lions will easily cover the -6.5 at home against GB. In a nothing game I can see the Lions rallying a little to do the double against the Packers and send off their coach with a W before his inevitable firing. The Packers, meanwhile, don't have anything to offer with Hundley there and you could really see last week that with the playoffs gone they didn't have the fire, nor do they have many receivers to go with their no-deep-ball QB.

Another...Atlanta -4, after the Vikings beat the Bears at noon, rendering Carolina's result maningless.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 2435
Posted: #665
Any guesses as to what the 2nd half total will be for tcu/Stanford? 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 3646
Posted: #666

Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Snowcrete: Hey Roggs, are you playing any sides in these games or are you just happy to let this system roll? I have played 2 sides until today....I played app state and marshall... winners... full transparency I did take va tech tonight as the 3rd side... I have just been posting those on my twitter handle not to bog this thread down...To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL... So with the significance of that - and watching totals for this system I have not broken down many sides
which you are posted on twitter so i can forllow ?

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #667
Quote Originally Posted by Legomaheggroll :

Any guesses as to what the 2nd half total will be for tcu/Stanford? 

it should be 24... if that number or anything is released higher lock in immediately... they so sick could release 23.5
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 3646
Posted: #668

Quote Originally Posted by mrdish33:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Roggs05: QUOTE Originally Posted by Snowcrete: Hey Roggs, are you playing any sides in these games or are you just happy to let this system roll? I have played 2 sides until today....I played app state and marshall... winners... full transparency I did take va tech tonight as the 3rd side... I have just been posting those on my twitter handle not to bog this thread down...To be honest all my time this week is trying to figure out my 5 hilton plays as many of you have seen I am in 10th headed into final weekend in the NFL... So with the significance of that - and watching totals for this system I have not broken down many sideswhich you are posted on twitter so i can forllow ?
which name ? 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #669
[Quote: Originally Posted by mrdish33] which you are posted on twitter so i can forllow ?

[/Quote

@circusboysports....

im private and keep to friends but will accept ppl
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 2435
Posted: #670
Quote Originally Posted by Roggs05:


it should be 24... if that number or anything is released higher lock in immediately... they so sick could release 23.5

thank you for that. would you wait at 23.5?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2013
Posts: 2435
Posted: #671
Ugh...MSU just scored 21-3. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #672
i saw about 6 ppl ask why i was waiting on msu at 23.5 all day... theres your answer... guess we get to close our eyes on 2 plays tonight
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2017
Posts: 31
Posted: #673
I have followed this since beginning and these low 20 lines have lost almost every 1H since beginning of bowl season. I was so close to taking both overs tonight. now we gotta sweat out two halfs. f#$K.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2011
Posts: 842
Posted: #674
under 24.5 stanford 2xs
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 5927
Posted: #675
so we double down on the under in both 2H plays - correct?

All Forums | College Football
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.