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**34-9 YTD** Week 5

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Posted: #26
any thoughts on Thursday Night Game:

SMU (+17) @ Tulane (-17)



-Emcee CHi-
 
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Posted: #27
smu
 
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Posted: #28
is it too early to count the chargers as a win? hope not haha
 
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Posted: #29
TheBigBanger:
 
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Posted: #30
thank you sir
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by TheBigBanger:

if i had to bet on this game i would honestly buy it down to 16.5 and take OU

 

thought this was funny because that's exactly what i did... only made it one of my 1/4 unit plays...

 

OU is a team i have ridden all 3 weeks as a best bet, but i know TCU gives them hell... but, OU is an auto-play as one of my top 7, and i do think they are capable of covering this... TCU isn't quite up to snuff, and OU is just dominant on both sides... loss of Granger totally sucks, but they are deep, and gotta think they will fill the hole, at least well enough for this game...

still, won't be at all surprised to see OU pull away late in a close game and win it by 13 or 14...

 

i'm staying away from Tulane - SMU, because on paper everything says Tulane, but two things spell trouble... 1) June Jones has to get something going eventually, and SMU is 0-3 or 0-4 ATS against some high powered teams... 2) two huge favorites on the board on Thursday night... would be surprised if both cover... would be even more surprised if USC was the one that didn't...

smells like a trap...

 
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Posted: #32
BAnger;
Does OSU have anything to trap them with????
What have they done so far this year?
How has Sc done in the past there?
Great job so far this year keep 'er goin'!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #33
shep- i agree with all of that. i will not be at all suprised to see OU win by 3+ tds but this is the best team we have played so im going to sit it out, im also sitting out on that smu game as one of my big plays this week is USC. so do you automatically pick your top 7 to cover every week?
 
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Posted: #34
GL this week man... A little stat to help you out... SEC double digit underdogs cover about 70% of the time... I play them all the time     MSU +24 and Ole Miss +23 are good ones
 
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Posted: #35
well, its complicated... basically, its a system play, where i bet small amounts blindly on it (sometimes split game and 1st half on the bigger spreads)... and bank on a profit by the end of the year...
 
i have tracked it on my thread over the past few weeks... and explain it a bit more detailed... don't want to clog your thread with that kind of stuff...
 
suffice to say... my original top 6 from the start of the year are 13-1-1... have added Bama and PSU officially this week to make it top 8, since i have been riding them and winning also... Texas will make it top 9 if they can manage to cover this week, but i don't think they will, so that's their test... if you include these 3 to make it top 9, to date you would be 22-2-1 just on this system play...
 
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Posted: #36
thanks corley, i ussually try to stay away from stats in most cases but ill keep that in mind
 
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Posted: #37
bigbanger, if you stay away from stats, what do you use to cap?
 
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Posted: #38
basically instinct is my main influence. the things that i consider though include motivation factors for the teams involved, who is the better coach, better qb, then better playmakers all around, of course defense as well, i will look at stats but you have to take them with a grain of salt. each game is totally different and if it was just as easy as looking at the numbers and figuring out who was statistically better everyone would win. i do not consider at all anything that happened more than 4 years ago as there are very few cases where there are players who were around in matchups then that are still making an impact in games today. what happened last year or 2 years ago is much more important to me. there really isnt any limit to what i consider when capping games, however stats such as "SEC double digit underdogs cover about 70% of the time" is not one of them. 
 
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Posted: #39
Your card looks solid...I'm playing pretty much every play except I'm staying away from Louisville game.  I also like Wisconsicn -6 vs Michigan and I expect ECU to bounce back.  Also considering Cincy.  GL to you
 
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Posted: #40
i agree on wisconsin, gl to you calbear
 
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Posted: #41
Wow Bang, 34 - 9, thats impressive...keep it up!
 
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Posted: #42
thanks JRob, hopefully 39-9 after this weekend
 
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Posted: #43
if anyone has any general gambling questions feel free to ask them as well
 
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Posted: #44
USC is a strong play. do you think osu will be able to keep this a game because they are at home or will USC have another walk in the park?
 
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Posted: #45
obviously i am predicting a win of more than 23.5 points. i would hope this isnt a close one haha
 
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Posted: #46
Nice picks
 
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Posted: #47
BB nice job on your current run! I have read most of your posts leading up this one. I would only suggest a different way of managing your money to maximize profits or you could just tell me to fuck off! lol. Just letting you know since you could be making way more money with a different approach, you remind me of myself. Gambling is Life and its not as fun watching a game without money on it. But you are way more knowledgeable about teams players and all the other good stuff. I myself make a killing off of gambling and do this for a living. There is not better job besides being a pornstar. Keep up the good work and good luck with your possible vegas job in the future.
 
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Posted: #48
christie- thank you very much, gl to you

nunez- sure i am always open to advice, what would your money management advice be? i am always looking for ways to improve and that is one of the 2 most important areas of being a successful sports gambler. any advice is welcome always.

d-town- thank you very much
 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
usc and bama come up HUGE this week.
 
GL
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