5-1 Last week - like to get thoughts on these games

I like tech for a couple of reasons.  Last week i was not on west virginia and i was also not on tech.  What scared me in making a bet on that game was that i was leaning tech.  Because of that i stayed away.

I know tech plays pretty bad on the road, i went to to tech, its the team i probably know the most about besides UT.  Techs defense is surprisingly good this year.  They pulled down the curtain on one of the most powerful offenses in the country last week and they also held a good iowa st offense to 13/14 and TCU got crushed by this same iowa st team at home.

I still dont understand the ISU line.  I know all about the line movements in all the games i bet.  I used to bet only line movements and that turned out to run about 50% if you bet it on every game in both NCAAF as well as NFL.  So i take line movement for what it is, a coinflip IMO.

ISU is a good team with a very good defense.  They beat TCU on the road and then almost held off a great kstate team the next week.  K state has a great defense and iowa st still put up 21 on them while holding k states offense to under 30.  OK state has a very good offense but i feel like the stats are fudged as they have not really played anyone of significance and a good portion of their stats come from week 1 vs savannah st.  And when i say they have not really played anyone i mean that.  UT is no one and so is arizona this year.  Both these teams have zero defense.  So OK st is walking into a game against a good, something they have not played against yet this season.  Iowa st on the other hand has played very good defenses a couple times this year already and did fine against them.  This OK st defense should not have a chance.  This is very similar reasoning i had last week when i took OK over Texas.  Texas had yet to face a good defense going into last weeks game they got shit pushed in just like i thought would happen.

The OSU line is high because (1) this is Homecoming, which is a really big deal at OSU, (2) this is a huge revenge game, and (3) Oklahoma State is hilariously underrated because (a) they've had two bye weeks so you only have five games to judge this year's team, (b) they had the bad fortune to play two of their five games in extremely negative situations where they would be expected to play way below their normal level, and (c) they had the bad fortune to lose a close game on a fumble that wasn't called in a game where they outgained the other team by 136 yards at 8.6 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play.

Last year, OSU was favored by 25 points on the road, and now they're -14 at home.  That's an 18-point adjustment before factoring the other intangibles (homecoming, payback) that are probably worth another 8-10 points.  Have these teams really converged by 26 to 28 points in one season?  I don't think so.  ISU may be 4 or 5 points better this year, and OSU may be a few points worse, and last year's line was probably a FG higher than it should have been (in terms of power ratings), but even so this line still gives us 16 points of line value on OSU, plus a bit more when you consider that ISU is in a letdown spot. 

Bottom line is OSU was the third best team in the country last year, and their performances this year really don't provide much reason to think they've fallen off significantly.  The only reason not to bet the farm on OSU is the fact that they have a bunch of injuries to their receivers, and Gundy won't disclose how serious they are.