~~~~~~~~$5,000 to $172.45 by January 7th~~~~~~~~

Actually, this is just my bowl thread, but I liked the title.

Initial impressions.......

I'm not comfortable with this. I like mostly favorites, and the numbers on the dogs I do like are really short, esp. the money lines, which are a sick joke at this point.

Underdogs ALWAYS predominate in post season, let's not forget that. But I have to go where my knowledge and experience direct me on each particular game. It's been a very humbling season, and I lack confidence at this point. Somehow I'm going to muster the will to keep firing and not shy away from the favorites that need to be played.

For the most part, I'm going to be patient and play late. I'll look to lock in key numbers if they come up, but mostly I'm hoping I can get away with not having 20 pending bets out there by Dec. 20. It would be nice if the favorites could establish a little bit of a trend early. That would help me make the right plays and not be intimidated.

One I felt I had to play already:

Oklahoma St. -4 (Dec 31, Insight Bowl -- Tempe, AZ)

I'm guessing about line movement again, probably wrong. I can't help but feel this should be in the 6.5 to 7 range soon. Watch it go to 2.5. I swear it will, but I have to keep forcing what I do. Greek still has 4 while BM is at 5 already. Pinny also at 4. We'll see.

Just a significant talent disparity IMHO. I think this is an exemplar of why I like so many favorites this year. Talent is spread too thin and when they dig this deep into a poor conference, they get teams that really have no business in a bowl at all, like IU. Problem is, OSU players will watch film for two weeks and come to the same conclusion, then play like they've already won the game. Seen it 100,000 times.

All for now. I'll try to cut back on the pessimism, but no promises.

More thoughts as I create them, but for now I'm trying to figure out the Tulsa line.  I don't think I've ever been almost two touchdowns off on a bowl line before.  Any notions on that?  Could you propose a hypothetical scenario where BG scores, but the GH do not?  Any other angles for the Falcons or injuries for Tulsa that I should know about?

Could you propose a hypothetical scenario where BG scores, but the GH do not?

No, but Tulsa is favored. As we've both figured out by now, it doesn't matter how good your offense is if you can't stop anybody. The question might be whether BG is bad enough to stop themselves enough times to fall hopelessly behind. Be careful that this isn't Tulsa/UTEP all over again, a game that still pains me.

BG cover/win could come a la UTEP. Tulsa cover might resemble Rice.

Jaybirdy --

I have described them in the past as a pulled James Hardy hammie removed from the MAC. I know that is a bit of an exaggeration, but wondering if that strikes a chord with someone as familiar with the Big11 as yourself.

Don't ask me who or why, but some big Indiana money just came in.  Back to 4 and +160 at BM.

I tell you what.  that indiana qb is young, but he's absolutely electric.  great things ahead for that kid.  coulda woulda shoulda beat penn st.  one of my best plays all year was indy plus against joepa.  plus the whole emotion factor with the coach deal.  this is a no play, no way, for me.

OK, getting to be that time of year. I hate that 3 week layoff. I spent much of the time studying college hoops -- damn, there is a lot to learn! Not even close yet. I don't hold much hope for making any money at it this year, but maybe next and in the future once I've built a knowledge base and gained experience.

Bowls I'm pretty much going on auto pilot. Momentum doesn't count for much when you take a week off. All has to do with talent, matchups, coaching, and motivation at this point. I should have a good feel for those things by now.

Key point is I'm not changing anything for bowl season, despite lackluster results this year. I'm sticking with my analysis and perceptions, even if a few things have taken place that might make me question some of it. Just going with the same theories and hoping the odds even out a bit.

There's going to be lots of short favorites. Sure would be nice to get off to a fast start and not get burned with a win/no cover situation for the first few games at least. Locking in a couple of key numbers now because I really don't know what the lines will do as game time approaches:

FAU -2.5 (Dec 21, New Orleans Bowl)

In short, I'm very impressed that they were able to beat Troy, and it wasn't a flukish win. Troy is a much better team than Memphis, who has no business at all in any bowl games this year.

New Mexico -2.5 (Dec 22, New Mexico Bowl -- Albuquerque)

UNR getting too much credit. Defense is awful, haven't beat anybody worth a shit all year. Pains me to have to bet on New Mexico and Rocky Long in particular -- the guy is a donkey -- but talent-wise they are better than this Reno bunch and get to play a home game. At less than 3, you have to take it. Maybe the Lobos are finally tired of losing bowl games.

 

NICE ONE MATADOR.....LIKE IT.....I think I'll go w/ Ok.St. on this one (primarily based on their sos)..Happy Bowl Betting ALL !!

It's good to be king. It's also good to be 2-0 on your bowl season, and since I'll never be king of shit, I guess I better enjoy the 2-0.

I wanted to take UCLA. I think the defense will play well and they have the capability to surprise. I've seen the best of BYU, and even at their best their beatable against a team with UCLA's talent when they come to play.

But the injuries are frustrating. Another starter lost on the DL, but nothing I think they couldn't overcome except of course the QB situation. No way in hell I'll put my money on Ossar Rashan. Most likely scenario in my view is UCLA will put their offense in position to succeed, but too often they'll be unable to capitalize. Running game should be OK with Markey but ultimately with their lack of depth and lack of a passing threat, I don't see a lot of points. Game might be exasperating no matter what side you have. Better for me just to pass, and wait until tomorrow.

Speaking of tomorrow, I like Boise to do their regular business. I think Hawaii is a favorable venue for them, and we've seen what happens to .500 teams from shitty conferences who really have no business bowling. My question for the forum is: Do you think we'll see a -10? I haven't bet it yet, so better to wait, or not?

Matador:

I don't think we'll be seeing a -10 on Boise.  Pretty sure that the public will be pushing this line up to the 11 range and beyond tomorrow more than likely.  I am not taking a side here, so good luck to you if you decide to jump on it.

Oh, and I'm 2-0 to start the bowls as well... feels good doesn't it?

Did I have UCLA pegged or what? Would have been a frustrating ML loss.........

Adding:

Boise State -10.5

Looks like the 10 just ain't gonna happen. Go Broncos.

Adding.....

Michigan St. ML +200

TCU -4.5

GL on your plays Matador