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$50,000 swing, must be CRUSHED

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
just read his twitter


2k at even money...  friggin idiot

when the game got to 21-3 he should have bet the in game hard 

im amazed at the stupidity...    if he had just bet the original money line for 37,500   he guarentees a profit of 12,500  no matter what happens...    off $100 bet...   

 
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Posted: #27
what was in game when they were down 21-3 anyone know?
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by vegasslim:

what was in game when they were down 21-3 anyone know?


At 14-3 sportsbook had the noles at a pk +110 gotta imagine it had to be more than double that
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by DukiesBaby:

just read his twitter


2k at even money...  friggin idiot

when the game got to 21-3 he should have bet the in game hard 

im amazed at the stupidity...    if he had just bet the original money line for 37,500   he guarentees a profit of 12,500  no matter what happens...    off $100 bet...   



Lol... yeah since we all have $37500 in cash just lying around. He got $1.9k profit off this game alone. I won't call him an idiot.

He had the right idea of waiting for in-game live bet instead of committing on FSU moneyline before the game.
 
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Posted: #30
What the hell is $12,500 ???

To everyone that says he should've hedged are the true morons. Mathematically hedging is NEVER the right play.

Auburn was a longshot from the getgo. The pregame ML made the ticket's intrinsic value only about $15,000, as Auburn was a little less than 33% to win the game. I don't know the exact numbers but especially on a futures bet, it makes no sense to pay that kind of juice. 

When Auburn was up 21-3 he could have secured a bigger chunk of the $50K, butthsts because Auburn was up 21-3! And then the juice would have been even mathematically worst. Care to imagine what the intrinsic value of the ticket must be when Auburn was up 21-3 AND looked like they were on a different level to FSU?

FYI, "intrinsic value" of a bet = (total payout + stakes)*(probability of event happening). 

To find the probability, you simply find the break-even requirement for both Auburn and FSU using the ML's and find the mid-point. 

Eg: -400 and +300
1/5 = 20%, so 80% for the favorite. 
1/4 = 25%

Odds = 22.5%. So the books force you to take odds that require a break-even point of 25% when you're 22.5%, or 80% when you're only 77.5%. 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Slugur:



Lol... yeah since we all have $37500 in cash just lying around. He got $1.9k profit off this game alone. I won't call him an idiot.

He had the right idea of waiting for in-game live bet instead of committing on FSU moneyline before the game.



I don't even hate not hedging pre-game, but FFS you have to take advantage of good in-game numbers when they come up.  ML had to be close to +300 when it was 21-3, could bet 10k and be secured 30k, i would gladly sacrifice a possible 10k hit and still take 40k when i'm now guaranteed to make 30k no matter what.  Surely someone here knows what exactly that ML number was once it was 21-3?
 
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Posted: #32
at half he could of taken Florida St -11 (+116)...so maybe -11 (+100) in vegas..throw down 25K and get drunk not caring who wins? 

Did his accountant not realize that? 


 
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Posted: #33

The dumb part is,  he bet only 2K

he seems to have a good job and friends to loan money from

Betting 15-25K  when the momemtum change a the begening of 2nd half was the right move

 

 
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Posted: #34
Who said he had 25k or 37k to hedge?!?
 
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Posted: #35
Even 10k wouldve sufficed if he caught a decent in game line.  Even if he's completely broke, doesn't seem like it, pretty sure you can get enough money from friends/family to cover this, I sure as hell would lend my friend 10k in this situation if i were watching the game with him, I would definitely make sure that he paid for the rest of the trip after though
 
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Posted: #36
Who was the dumb Azz sportsbook giving an SEC team 500-1 on the natty is the real question here?

No team in SEC should be getting odds near that high, not even Vandy, Tennessee, or Miss. St.
 
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Posted: #37
Does anyone know if the LVH even let's someone bet $10k or even $5k in game? I'm guessing that's where he watched the game since his original ticket came from there right?
 
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Posted: #38
To anyone who says yeah he should hedge when it was 21-3 do they really think they would? At that time then musberger was saying who thought auburn would blow out FSU. Auburn was dominating. Betting against them at that point would feel like throwing away money
 
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Posted: #39
I see his original ticket came from Paris. Correction on my part.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Thesicilian0ne:

To anyone who says yeah he should hedge when it was 21-3 do they really think they would? At that time then musberger was saying who thought auburn would blow out FSU. Auburn was dominating. Betting against them at that point would feel like throwing away money


100% yes, FSU was down because they were playing extremely tenative and frankly were just choking.  FSU was still the better team in my mind, and while I did not necessarily think they would come back to win felt like it was within the realm of possiblity.  If the line was at say +300, no idea if it was, i would gladly turn my 50k into 40k knowing that I was now guaranteed 30k no matter what and could watch the rest of the game with a weight off my shoulders.  If I were this guy I would definitely be bringing a decent chunk of change with me being prepared to jump on any in-game opportunities which arose.  Honestly he got an absolute perfect in-game runout to get a great hedge line which was not available pre-game and wasted it
 
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Posted: #41
Also as far as in-game betting maxes I have no clue, but the point remains the same
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Hopefully he took FSU -8 for 2H for about 20k!!  Otherwise, bummer.



 He had an excellent chance to do that, but he probably got Greedy Daniels and let it ride like an idiot.  
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by moneymatters:

Who said he had 25k or 37k to hedge?!?

 If he went out to Vegas with his accountant, and he could not come up with 25K plus to hedge, he is a BUFFOON..  

He had plenty of time to plan for this moment, and half-time provided the perfect hedging opportunity.  There is NO excuse not to have the funds on hand in case he decided to hedge.  Whether or not he would have done so is irrelevant to the argument.
 
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Posted: #44

I understand if payout is $500 or even $1,000. But when the payout is $50,000, you have to hedge.

I really don't care if it was his first bet of his life!

He needed TWO incomprehensible miracles to have a chance at that money. I would have borrowed money to bet the most I could without losing any money to get some serious money back.

I didnt follow the moneyline, but obviously the best play was the line opened when FSU was at the lowest moneyline possible.

He was 71 seconds away of $50,000. Then nothing.

CRUSHED if he didnt hedge.

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

I understand if payout is $500 or even $1,000. But when the payout is $50,000, you have to hedge.

I really don't care if it was his first bet of his life!

He needed TWO incomprehensible miracles to have a chance at that money. I would have borrowed money to bet the most I could without losing any money to get some serious money back.

I didnt follow the moneyline, but obviously the best play was the line opened when FSU was at the lowest moneyline possible.

He was 71 seconds away of $50,000. Then nothing.

CRUSHED if he didnt hedge.

 

Don't get me started when FSU was down 7-3, 14-3, or even 21-3. That plus moneyline for FSU to win game.

Even the halftime line. Wow.

 
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Posted: #46
it was the perfect storm for him to hedge when fsu was down 21-3 he couldnt have asked for a better start to the game then that and imagine being this guy during that 4th!!!
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by wolfman50:

Also as far as in-game betting maxes I have no clue, but the point remains the same

Agree the point remains the same. Just curious to know how much he could have realistically got down in game and at what odds/spreads. This might not have been as easy as people make it out to be. That $2k he got down in game might have been all they allowed him to get down at the time. 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by Slugur:



Lol... yeah since we all have $37500 in cash just lying around. He got $1.9k profit off this game alone. I won't call him an idiot.

He had the right idea of waiting for in-game live bet instead of committing on FSU moneyline before the game.

I somewhat disagree. He has no idea how this game starts out. It's easy to say in hindsight after FSU went down 21-3. However, if FSU opens up a 21-3 lead he is really in trouble then. 

Hard to tell what someone should do given that we have no idea his current financial situation and risk tolerance. If it's me, I'm taking the $12500 off the table pre game and watching the game with zero stress. Who know what his situation is though. Personally I think he should have hedged pregame. $100 investment into $12,500 with zero risk is a great deal imo. 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Ktrain:


I somewhat disagree. He has no idea how this game starts out. It's easy to say in hindsight after FSU went down 21-3. However, if FSU opens up a 21-3 lead he is really in trouble then. 

Hard to tell what someone should do given that we have no idea his current financial situation and risk tolerance. If it's me, I'm taking the $12500 off the table pre game and watching the game with zero stress. Who know what his situation is though. Personally I think he should have hedged pregame. $100 investment into $12,500 with zero risk is a great deal imo. 


exactly these people are talking in hindsight,  you dont know how this game plays out, you risked $100   your getting 125-1 hedge  bet now ,   and he is a grown man with a good job he can get a hold of 37500 if he has too...  

and i bet at the palms daily and i know they have over a few million $ bet limits, 37500 is chump change    to you and i maybe not but to these casinos lol, they could care less about paying him his 50k if he win....  


gamblers lose  investors win, hedging your original investment of $100 at a guarentee 125-1 back is a NO BRAINER
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by vegasslim:

what was fsu in game when down 21-3?


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