91-55-2...............Navy San Diego State Writeup and Play

Adding 1H San Diego State ML -130

Forgot to explain my angle of taking SD ST ML 1H:

Navy typically wears teams down so the 1H is not high scoring for them. #50 in 1 QTR scoring 6.58, #68 2 Qtr 7.42 for a total of 14 points per 1Half.

SD State on Defense 1Qtr #42 (5.00) and 2 Qtr #46 (6.50) for an average 1H allowing 11.5 points per 1 Half

SD State advantage of 2.5 points

Navy Defense 1 Half: #52 1 Qtr (5.42 allowed), #83 2 Qtr (9.08) for an average of 14.5 pp 1H allowed.

SD State on Offense: #41 1 Qtr 7.17ppg, #28 2 Qtr  (10.17) for a 1 Half avg of 17.34.

SD State advantage +2.84 points

Numbers tell me that SD State should have a 4 to 7 point advantage by halftime.

Navy's offense is all ground and I'm not certain but I'm looking at that as a disadvantage if the ground is a mess, not a huge disadvantage but one to think about as in my humble opinion I think DB's having to make decisions on WR's in bad field conditions is really where the advantage comes in for a more balanced and throwing team. With that said, I haven't looked at the weather in San Diego and won't be factoring it in my capping.

Navy has a potent offense with the triple option and it shows in national numbers #5 rushing, #38 total offense, #40 scoring offense. Although they are ranked #118 in passing offense and its obvious why, they are accurate with the short passing game with a #11 pass efficency passing game. Teams also don't get to the QB in this sort of offense as they are #9 in sacks allowed per game. Most impressive is their turnover margin is #21 in the nation......ALTHOUGH their last game against Army they lost 3 fumbles and 1 INT, prior against Ark State they lost 2 fumbles.

Looking into their turnovers more closely the number is more of a reflection to the 1st 7 games where they had 0 lost fumbles.

Navy's Defense: This is a weakness. #65 in rushing defense, #86 pass efficency, #65 pass defense, #92 in sacks and #114 in tackles for a loss and overall #64 in total defense.

San Diego State Offense: #11 in passing, #30 in passing efficency, #63 rushing, #21 in total offense and #20 in scoring offense is impressive. What is most impressive is for a team that likes to throw the ball, they protect their QB with the #7 team in the nation allowing sacks.

Senior WR's Sampson and Brown are big play receivers with AVgs of 18.1 and 19.4 and 17 tds between them. Freshman RB Ronnie Hillman can be huge when necessary with 1304 yards and 14 scores.

They score alot of points by scoring 30+ in 8 of 12 and most impressive was going into TCU and losing 35-40.

San Diego Defense: #17 passing efficency, #50 pass, #51 against the rush, #43 in scoring, #34 in sacks, and what will come in handy against Navy is they are #5 in tackles for a loss. Turnover margin is #101 in the nation

Interesting Tidbits: There is alot of talk about Navy playing better teams, etc The fact is San Diego State's Strength of Schedulle is 74 and Navy's is 83.

Last 5 games Power Rating: SD St #57 vs. Navy #45

I see this game as very close and I'm getting a great line on the ML so that is my play:

San Diego State Aztechs ML -145

 for all the same reasons i'm going navy+3 and under 58. if navy can run (witch they can) they'll own time of poss  40-20min, if SDST runs at all it goes under. . .i like both, navy 24-21