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***** Alabama vs. Notre Dame Write-up *****

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Posted: #26
thanks gl
 
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Posted: #27
i locked in bama 1 st half - 6 points for $220.00 here in sin city
 
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Posted: #28
JIMMY.  Great write up, thanks for taking the tie for the analysis  BOL
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Itsm3Yoshi:

  Very articulated writeup!  But lets think outside the box, Notre Dame will benefit from refs ...In this corrupt society, "Big Dogs have a hand everything in life," especially Billion dollar business we call "Football"  New York Yankees, Lakers,...etc  You get the idea..Look for Notre Dame to get most of the calls. I can see it now on tuesday news paper across the nation, "Notre Dame is back, defeated Almighty Alabamba Crimson Tide. There will be point shaving.   NOTRE DAME WILL SURELY COVER THE 10 pts .
Book it!!!! Take it to the Bank!


Your point about the officiating is very well taken, and believe me this is a big concern for me, just as it was in last season's title game.  I even posted my concerns about the possibility of biased officiating.  In the end my concerns were unfounded, because I thought the Big 12 crew did a magnificent job.

There has been quite a bit of anti-SEC officiating manifest in the bowl games this season (particularly from Big 10 crews), so I believe the concern is very legitimate.  Tomorrow night's game will be officiated by a PAC 12 crew.  All I can hope for is the the officiating is somewhat balanced.


 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Capper007:

Glad to see your shackles are off!!!

You still got Bama up to -14??



Up to 13.5.


 
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Posted: #33
Pretty much my thoughts too Jimmy- With all the time Saban has had to prepare, he will make Notre Dame one dimensional. Then the Notre Dame passing game will be forced into turnovers and it's game over! I think the Bama secondary is it's Achilles heel but the Irish won't be able to expose that weakness. Several other teams would have a better chance against Bama but this is a bad matchup for the Irish. i do believe they can slow Bama down but if you watch what the Pitt running game did against Notre Dame, then Yeldon and Lacy should be licking their chops. The Tide's offensive line is very good and should wear down the Irish as the game goes on. I see Alabama 23 - Notre Dame 12. (four fg's) This is my best case scenario for Notre Dame. It could easily be a 27 -6 type game. Good luck. I was waiting for my Ducks bet to win so I could add more units to this game. I have 5 units at -9 and am adding 5 more units at -9.5!!!
 
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Posted: #34
Great write up !! You didn't have to convince me, but I thoroughly enjoyed the insight. Only thing I can add here is to the guy who thinks the fix is in for ND. First and foremost, the ref's can call anything they want all day long (they do have to be 'Tiny' bit discretionary no matter how much they stand to gain.People will be talking about the 'phantom first down' in the Gamecock/Mich game for awhile. Clowney took care of that crap though !) and It won't matter. If you don't understand why it won't matter, re-read ! ROLL ON BIG TIDE, ROLL !!!

BOL to all !! And again, very nice write up !!

 
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Posted: #35
   Forgot to mention my 2nd point. As far as any kind of of fix goes, it will be against ND as the 'public' is all over them. Touchdown Jesus will have to come off that wall and QB the game himself for them to stay in this 1. Just 1 man's oh so humble opinion.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by BigShotBill:

I have it at 38-6 Bama. Only thing I'd add to the writeup is the fact this is the best passing game ND has played all year. They have faced a lot of bad QBs this yr but the one good one they faced Landry Jones threw for 356 yds vs them. I don't like ND's secondary at all. Zeke Motta is awful in coverage at safety and frosh CB KeiVarae Russell Bama will look to attack.

Bama can be beaten threw the air but how is ND going to beat them? John Goodman and Robby Toma are slower than molasses. Milliner will take TJ Jones for a majority of the game and Saban won't let Eifert beat them. Saban is from the Belichick coaching tree and one thing they do great is shutting down a teams #1 option.

ND is also terrible on special teams and nobody is talking about that aspect of the game as well. Bama has good returners on kicks and punts and I expect them to get past the 30 yd line all night to start drives.



Great post!!!

The common denominator in Alabama's loss and their two closest games was repeated breakdowns in coverage, and it was the same guys who were out of position over and over again.  Alabama's safety play versus passes down field has not been been good.  They really miss Mark Barron back there.

Robert Lester entered the season as a potential 1st round draft pick, and he has probably played himself down to the lower half of the draft at this point.  His frequent coverage breakdowns are inexcusable given he's a 5th year senior.  The other safeties that have struggled in coverage are Vinnie Sunseri and Nick Perry.  Honestly Ha Ha looks like the best safety Alabama has right now, and he is certainly has been seeing a lot more playing time lately.

Deion Belue is very talented, but this is his first year playing in this defense.  Geno Smith may be the second best corner on the team right now.

NLB Nico Johnson is a very stout run defender, but very weak in coverage.  Of course he comes off the field in passing situations, but look for Notre Dame to attack him when he's on the field.  Alabama really doesn't have a guy like Rolando McClain who is an every down linebacker so they are constantly shuffling.

Agree that Notre Dame's secondary is very susceptible.  As I said, this is a mismatch in favor of Alabama.

I am very aware of Alabama's advantage in special teams.  I cut it out my write-up for the sake of brevity.


 
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Posted: #37
your work is outstanding
 
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Jimmy, I think CJ has a huge game tomorrow and steps in for Nico with DePriest. 

You hearing anything on K Bell? I've heard he is a game time decision, pretty crazy considering his injury. Its nice having C Black and potentially Bell in the back pocket in case a receiver goes down. (like maze last year)

I think ND will make a couple nice plays to their big TE...

I'm predicting:

Bama 27
ND - 10 (TD to Eiffert)
 
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Another Jimmydafreak masterpiece...GREAT writeup bro! 

Just wanted to get your thoughts but I was thinking of taking Bama first half as well as I believe they should get off to a fast start.

You've probably watched them more then I but how do they typically play in the first half? Do they typically come out firing out the gates or are they more of a second half team? Also, based from you projected total score I'm assuming you like the over 40 on the total correct?

Any insight you can provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance bro!

Best of luck and Let's CASH this ticket tomorrow sir! 

 
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Posted: #41
Excellent write up, probably the best I've ever read on covers.  Well done sir!
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Another Jimmydafreak masterpiece...GREAT writeup bro! 

Just wanted to get your thoughts but I was thinking of taking Bama first half as well as I believe they should get off to a fast start.

You've probably watched them more then I but how do they typically play in the first half? Do they typically come out firing out the gates or are they more of a second half team? Also, based from you projected total score I'm assuming you like the over 40 on the total correct?

Any insight you can provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance bro!

Best of luck and Let's CASH this ticket tomorrow sir! 


I know you're looking for jimmy's write-up, but I think he'll tell you the same thing:

Given these types of situations with time off (first game of the season or bowl games), Bama usually comes out swinging in the 1st H, like they did against Michigan this year 21-0 in the first quarter. 

I think Jimmy will tell you that the 1H play is a safe play. 

The counter argument to that is that the O-line is so good that they can break the will of a D and by the 4th quarter run at will (see UGA in SEC championship)...I think this game will be closer to the Michigan game and by the 4th Q Bama will be running out the clock...
 
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Posted: #43
Nice write up. Lets get that.   


 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by usmabama:


I know you're looking for jimmy's write-up, but I think he'll tell you the same thing:

Given these types of situations with time off (first game of the season or bowl games), Bama usually comes out swinging in the 1st H, like they did against Michigan this year 21-0 in the first quarter. 

I think Jimmy will tell you that the 1H play is a safe play. 

The counter argument to that is that the O-line is so good that they can break the will of a D and by the 4th quarter run at will (see UGA in SEC championship)...I think this game will be closer to the Michigan game and by the 4th Q Bama will be running out the clock...

Appreciate the insight bro...I really do. 

Lets cash this ticket tomorrow 
 
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Posted: #45
I like it ,,U 42 for me and Bama -2.5 on the back end of a teaser
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Another Jimmydafreak masterpiece...GREAT writeup bro! 

Just wanted to get your thoughts but I was thinking of taking Bama first half as well as I believe they should get off to a fast start.

You've probably watched them more then I but how do they typically play in the first half? Do they typically come out firing out the gates or are they more of a second half team? Also, based from you projected total score I'm assuming you like the over 40 on the total correct?

Any insight you can provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance bro!

Best of luck and Let's CASH this ticket tomorrow sir! 


Also, the team last year had a problem with letting the sub par teams score first (FG or TD) and then turning it on, that hasn't been the case this year. A &M blitzed Bama this year and went up 20-0 in the 1Q, but that was after an emotional win at night in Baton Rouge (they then outscored them 24-9 in the final 3Qs). LSU and UGA both scored first, but Bama didnt cover those games anyway....ND wont catch Bama off guard, they'll come out fired up, rested, and with a great game plan...IMO, both plays are safe. 

BOL...lets make some money and Roll Tide. 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by usmabama:

Jimmy, I think CJ has a huge game tomorrow and steps in for Nico with DePriest. 

You hearing anything on K Bell? I've heard he is a game time decision, pretty crazy considering his injury. Its nice having C Black and potentially Bell in the back pocket in case a receiver goes down. (like maze last year)

I think ND will make a couple nice plays to their big TE...

I'm predicting:

Bama 27
ND - 10 (TD to Eiffert)


I think Mosley and the Alabama's much maligned secondary will have have big games.

I'm hearing what you're hearing on Bell - game time decision, but Bell strikes me as being pretty optimistic.

I certainly hope Black doesn't see the field, and I'm sure he won't.  Would not make any sense to burn his redshit now.

Our predictions are pretty much the same.  Both of us have Notre Dame scoring twice.  I said they would score between 0 and 10 points.


 
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Quote Originally Posted by avrgsr:

Another Jimmydafreak masterpiece...GREAT writeup bro! 

Just wanted to get your thoughts but I was thinking of taking Bama first half as well as I believe they should get off to a fast start.

You've probably watched them more then I but how do they typically play in the first half? Do they typically come out firing out the gates or are they more of a second half team? Also, based from you projected total score I'm assuming you like the over 40 on the total correct?

Any insight you can provide would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance bro!

Best of luck and Let's CASH this ticket tomorrow sir! 



Alabama has typically starts very fast and tends to take the air out of the ball in the second half.  I wouldn't have a problem betting them for the 1st half.

On the flip side, if Notre Dame is going to hang with Alabama at all (and I really don't think they will), it could be close at the half.


 
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Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:



Alabama has typically starts very fast and tends to take the air out of the ball in the second half.  I wouldn't have a problem betting them for the 1st half.

On the flip side, if Notre Dame is going to hang with Alabama at all (and I really don't think they will), it could be close at the half.



Thanks brother...ROLL TIDE! 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Good write up... will read the rest of it in a bit. By "max bet" and your score prediction, I assume you're very confident in this play.

Thanks for your time.

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