Analysis of 40 bowl games...

I know this is a College Football Forum, but here are my NFL picks: 

Similar to Bowl games, I should not make any playoff games a Levin Lock and I (actually) won’t, but I will point out games that I love.

Bengals @ Texans

I think the most telling state here is the Bengals record against teams with a winning record this year is 1-6. While the Bengals are 8-1 against teams that are .500 or worse. Since Schaub went down with an injury the Texans are 3-3 (losing their last 3). Since Schaub went down the Texans have averaged 18 points per game (ppg) Are teams starting to figure out T.J. Yates? I don’t think so. I said before that Wade Phillips is their big X-factor. He is now back. The most points that the Texans gave up at home with Wade Phillips coaching the defense was 25 points to the Raiders and an average of 16.5ppg (That’s including the 40 they gave up to the Saints in New Orleans). Giving up 14.43 ppg at home when Phillips is coaching. The Bengals give up an average of 17.25 ppg on the road and score 23.5 ppg on the road. I like the Texans to win 20-17 (take Houston straight up!). In the first playoff game that involves the new rules.

Pick: Under 39

Lions @ Saints

In a must win game last week against the Packers’ backup the Lions game up 480 yards passing and 6TDs (note: that is not a misprint). Can you imagine what Drew Brees is going to do at home against the Lions? I don’t think anyone can fathom the possibilities. The Lions didn’t have Louis Delmas and Ndamukong Suh the last time these teams met in week 13 when the Saints won 31-17. The Saints don’t lose at home. In addition, they don’t come close to losing at home in primetime. We know the Lions don’t show up for the first half and we know I’m a Lions fan, so I will only pick the first half (although, unbiased, the Saints for the game could be the better play). My only small hope for my Lions to pull of the upset is the fact that the Saints lost (both on the road) to the Rams and Buccaneers. The last two weeks, I believed there was a shot that the Saints could lose (boy was I wrong). This week I believe that the Saints have NO shot to lose (even though, a dome is a dome, right?). Sadly, my Lions go down 43-27. Don’t love the over play because of 59 is A LOT of points, but I will take it, along with:

Pick: First half Saints -7
Pick: Saints -10.5
Pick: Over 59

Falcons @ Giants

The Falcons give up 19 ppg on the road and score 19.25 ppg on the road. Overall, the Falcons score 25.1 ppg and give up 21.9 ppg. Remember the “Eli Excitement” rule? Well, teams that finished .500 or better the Giants averaged 27 ppg, while giving up 25.6 ppg. This fits perfectly into my theory. He is 6-4 against those teams. A mere 1-2 record at home against these teams. Against all teams at home, the Gmen score 23.25 ppg and give up 23.13 ppg. While scoring 24.6 overall and giving up 25 ppg. Giants 26 Falcons 23. I like the over play better.

Pick: Gmen -3
Pick: Over 47

Steelers @ Tim Tebow

Since Tebow took over the Broncos have averaged 18.55 ppg and have given up 22.72 ppg. At home the defense of the Broncos (since Tebow took over) 23.2 ppg, but the Broncos have only scored (since Tebow took over) 13.2 ppg at home.  The Steelers average 20.3 ppg overall and a mere 15.6 ppg on the road. While their defense has given up 14.2 ppg and 18.4 ppg on the road. No Pouncey, Mendenhall, Ryan Clark. A banged up Roethlisberger and LaMarr Woodley. Similar to the Chiefs/Packers game, where I thought all signs pointed to the Chiefs definitely covering, I love the Denver Tebows to cover in this game, but like the Chiefs/Packers game I still think the favorite wins. Then, again the Chiefs actually did win. Basically, this is how the Broncos should feel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA. I LOVE both of these plays (very tempted to make the Broncos a Lock to cover, but read my statement above). The most points that each team will score is 20 points for Pittsburgh. and 16 for Denver. I think the score is 14-10, so I will take the average and pick the final score to be: 17-13.

Pick: Broncos +9
Pick: Under 33.5

Southern Methodist vs. Pittsburgh

Both of these coaches applied to be Arizona State’s coach. One received permission from their school to talk to ASU, one did not. Needless to say, the one who did NOT get permission got the head coaching job at ASU. Todd Graham is gone and told his team through text message. Speaking of gone, both the Mustangs and Panthers star running backs are out for the season. I think the Mustangs win this low scoring game.

Pick: Southern Methodist +3.5
Pick: Under 47

Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois

I said it a really long time ago (top of the page), I think the MAC is going undefeated. Both of these teams are as hot (coming in with a combined 17 game win streak) as the GoDaddy.com (bowl) commercials.

Pick: Northern Illinois +1.5
Pick: Over 63

Maybe should add first half under @ 32.5?
https://imlevinit.wordpress.com/2011/12/25/its-the-most-wonderful-time-of-the-year-2/

Alabama vs. LSU (ROUND DOS-FIGHT!)

This has to be the rematch of the century! My analysis on November 5th on this game was: “The Tide will not roll, instead they will lose 17-16 (I’ll go with a very bold prediction and say Alabama scores on a last second play, then tries to go for two to win and fails).” I did two College Bowl Mania. One I have LSU winning 27-23. The other one I have LSU winning 23-10. I said in my long rant how LSU would win by double figures, but maybe I was just angry about Oklahoma State not getting a chance. I love numbers, so I will take the average of the score of the first game, my first prediction, and the two predictions from this game. LSU wins 19 to 13.75. It’s always tough to beat a great team twice (right, Michigan State?-though Georgia Tech feels otherwise). But, this is a home game for LSU! Don’t love the under, but I have to pick it (40.5). You know what happens at night games in the Superdome, don’t you? Well, if you don’t remember, then watch the Saints/Falcons game tomorrow (Monday, December 26th). The over is probably the right play, especially with the odds of a pick 6 or two with these dominate defenses.

Pick: Tigers -1
Pick: First half under 20

I'll add over 40 for the game!