This is strictly a value play. This game opened at Bookmaker at
APPY ST -7.5....
I understand the Appy love. They are the known commodity here by a lot of casual bettors. But I trust the bookmakers. Arky is at home and this is still a conference road game. And now the points have moved enough that I can get...
ARKY ST +7 1H
Pulling the trigger on this. I see value here. Arky St offense can score and I expect them to be fired up for primetime and at least start off well. Maybe Appy duz cover the 11.5 or 12 im seeing out there now but Im thinkin its a slow start... Trustin bookmakers to know what they are doing when they set this line
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This is strictly a value play. This game opened at Bookmaker at
APPY ST -7.5....
I understand the Appy love. They are the known commodity here by a lot of casual bettors. But I trust the bookmakers. Arky is at home and this is still a conference road game. And now the points have moved enough that I can get...
ARKY ST +7 1H
Pulling the trigger on this. I see value here. Arky St offense can score and I expect them to be fired up for primetime and at least start off well. Maybe Appy duz cover the 11.5 or 12 im seeing out there now but Im thinkin its a slow start... Trustin bookmakers to know what they are doing when they set this line
1)Game of the year look ahead lines had this game as a PICKEM. Now we are getting 7 at the half and 10.5 on game as home dawg?! ill take that all day
2) See a lot of comments about Arky St run defense. And yes they havent been great. but neither have they been awful. These stats are padded by 2 games.... Alabama and Georgia Southern accounted for over 600 rushing yards themselves. Those 2 games have skewered any rushing defense stats towards the negative.
3) This is still a conference game in, of all conferences, the FUN BELT!! Strange things happen all the time in this conference and Arky St is NOT a bad team. Appy has only played 4 games as one was cancelled and I know how difficult it is to navigate an excruciating schedule like Charlotte and Gardner Webb, but Arky hasnt had those luxuries.... Instead facing the likes of Tulsa, Bama, and Georgia Southern.... you know.... actual FBS teams
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Couple points worth mentioning...
1)Game of the year look ahead lines had this game as a PICKEM. Now we are getting 7 at the half and 10.5 on game as home dawg?! ill take that all day
2) See a lot of comments about Arky St run defense. And yes they havent been great. but neither have they been awful. These stats are padded by 2 games.... Alabama and Georgia Southern accounted for over 600 rushing yards themselves. Those 2 games have skewered any rushing defense stats towards the negative.
3) This is still a conference game in, of all conferences, the FUN BELT!! Strange things happen all the time in this conference and Arky St is NOT a bad team. Appy has only played 4 games as one was cancelled and I know how difficult it is to navigate an excruciating schedule like Charlotte and Gardner Webb, but Arky hasnt had those luxuries.... Instead facing the likes of Tulsa, Bama, and Georgia Southern.... you know.... actual FBS teams
Im going back in and takin Arky St +10.5 here as well.... just feel like theres too much value here to pass up. If i lose, fine..... but im not missing the opportunity that is presented here
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Im going back in and takin Arky St +10.5 here as well.... just feel like theres too much value here to pass up. If i lose, fine..... but im not missing the opportunity that is presented here
Yea... and who exactly are you hanging your hat on for Appy State signature victory? Charlotte? Gardner Webb? South Alabama? None of those is any better my brutha
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Yea... and who exactly are you hanging your hat on for Appy State signature victory? Charlotte? Gardner Webb? South Alabama? None of those is any better my brutha
Tulsa just beat HOUSTON bro... Any of Appy States opponents beat a quality opponent like that?
You must be watching the wrong game last week. Tulsa won ats against hou. You mean the same Tulsa that let Houston dropped a ton in the 2nd half? Ok apples and oranges.
Touchè. I meant ats lol my bad
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Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:
Tulsa just beat HOUSTON bro... Any of Appy States opponents beat a quality opponent like that?
You must be watching the wrong game last week. Tulsa won ats against hou. You mean the same Tulsa that let Houston dropped a ton in the 2nd half? Ok apples and oranges.
There has been a lot of talk about the spread. I think the play is the over. Neither team is going to slow each other down much. First Tuesday night game of the season look for points.
Tulsa has a good defense and the Red Starks still scored 29 on them.
Putting 38 on Penn is impressive. I see a 40 - 30 type of game. The spread looks too close to me.
These teams average 71 yards and 86 years in penalties per game. That 105 and 123 rankings.
Both kickers look pretty good 4-5 each only missing outside 40 yards
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There has been a lot of talk about the spread. I think the play is the over. Neither team is going to slow each other down much. First Tuesday night game of the season look for points.
Tulsa has a good defense and the Red Starks still scored 29 on them.
Putting 38 on Penn is impressive. I see a 40 - 30 type of game. The spread looks too close to me.
These teams average 71 yards and 86 years in penalties per game. That 105 and 123 rankings.
Both kickers look pretty good 4-5 each only missing outside 40 yards
You must be watching the wrong game last week. Tulsa won ats against hou. You mean the same Tulsa that let Houston dropped a ton in the 2nd half? Ok apples and oranges.
Kind of like you taking about how great App St's offense has been when EVERY team playing the Great Bad teams they scored on has been scoring a ton on
You mean a unlv team that ark state beats and New Mexico just dropped 50 on unlv?
Where we going with this?
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Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
You must be watching the wrong game last week. Tulsa won ats against hou. You mean the same Tulsa that let Houston dropped a ton in the 2nd half? Ok apples and oranges.
Kind of like you taking about how great App St's offense has been when EVERY team playing the Great Bad teams they scored on has been scoring a ton on
You mean a unlv team that ark state beats and New Mexico just dropped 50 on unlv?
Safe to say we are just on opposite sides. Im not knocking your play so much as trying to justify mine. I dont blame anybody for playin Appy state. You can wager where you like. As I stated at the beginning of this thread.... THIS IS STRICTLY A VALUE PLAY... Its based on numbers, line movements, perception, value, and opening line... Seems completely logical to me that everyone would take Appy state here and I dont hold that against anyone. Im simply fading it.
BOL bro. We’ll see how it goes.
Id buy you a beer either way brutha
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NFL Brosuf....
Safe to say we are just on opposite sides. Im not knocking your play so much as trying to justify mine. I dont blame anybody for playin Appy state. You can wager where you like. As I stated at the beginning of this thread.... THIS IS STRICTLY A VALUE PLAY... Its based on numbers, line movements, perception, value, and opening line... Seems completely logical to me that everyone would take Appy state here and I dont hold that against anyone. Im simply fading it.
NFL Brosuf....Safe to say we are just on opposite sides. Im not knocking your play so much as trying to justify mine. I dont blame anybody for playin Appy state. You can wager where you like. As I stated at the beginning of this thread.... THIS IS STRICTLY A VALUE PLAY... Its based on numbers, line movements, perception, value, and opening line... Seems completely logical to me that everyone would take Appy state here and I dont hold that against anyone. Im simply fading it.BOL bro. We’ll see how it goes.Id buy you a beer either way brutha
Respect either way. Lost so much im used to losing.
I like to talk about it cuz you get to see the other side and what you are missing. I think it is safe to say that I am downgrading my free money talk to almost free money lol
Game time later to show us our prediction. See you at the cashier window. I might have to make a deposit for the lost. Lol
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Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:
NFL Brosuf....Safe to say we are just on opposite sides. Im not knocking your play so much as trying to justify mine. I dont blame anybody for playin Appy state. You can wager where you like. As I stated at the beginning of this thread.... THIS IS STRICTLY A VALUE PLAY... Its based on numbers, line movements, perception, value, and opening line... Seems completely logical to me that everyone would take Appy state here and I dont hold that against anyone. Im simply fading it.BOL bro. We’ll see how it goes.Id buy you a beer either way brutha
Respect either way. Lost so much im used to losing.
I like to talk about it cuz you get to see the other side and what you are missing. I think it is safe to say that I am downgrading my free money talk to almost free money lol
Game time later to show us our prediction. See you at the cashier window. I might have to make a deposit for the lost. Lol
FWIW??? MY database has this matchup very close to the syr-pitt
Game,
With that i am taking ark st and over in the first hf., I originally posted appt st and under , hope no one read that, or played off of that,I don’t think so cuz I’m not that good....
GL
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FWIW??? MY database has this matchup very close to the syr-pitt
Game,
With that i am taking ark st and over in the first hf., I originally posted appt st and under , hope no one read that, or played off of that,I don’t think so cuz I’m not that good....
Thanx bro.. Ill need it the way my year going so far... jumping at opportunities as they come and hoping for the best. We’ll see. Im not used to a losing record lol
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Quote Originally Posted by Flush1:
GL GWiz . Wagers of this nature 60%
Thanx bro.. Ill need it the way my year going so far... jumping at opportunities as they come and hoping for the best. We’ll see. Im not used to a losing record lol
In hindsight, The first half play feels strong. Prolly shouldnt have taken that +10.5.... but I feel like the Sun belt will most likely be decided between these two teams. With that thought in mind, +10.5 at home after bye week feels pretty good. We’ll see... Im honestly suprised to see the points this high. Appy State has gotten a high profile in recent years because of outright upsets and near upsets... This must have sumthin to do with it. But still.... Arky st has a pretty good home record vs conference. I LOVE the 1H play.... That one feels really good. We’ll see how game goes...
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In hindsight, The first half play feels strong. Prolly shouldnt have taken that +10.5.... but I feel like the Sun belt will most likely be decided between these two teams. With that thought in mind, +10.5 at home after bye week feels pretty good. We’ll see... Im honestly suprised to see the points this high. Appy State has gotten a high profile in recent years because of outright upsets and near upsets... This must have sumthin to do with it. But still.... Arky st has a pretty good home record vs conference. I LOVE the 1H play.... That one feels really good. We’ll see how game goes...
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