Posted:
#1
Avoiding the unlikely in 2 ways:
1. I have been trying to keep a weekly list of teams to avoid. Not necessarily to fade, but bad spots to bet into. It has helped me save my bankroll. I create the list before the lines come out and then tweak it when I see something stupid.
Here is my list for this week:
NO play/fade list: Mizzou, Utah, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ole Piss, Wash, Oregon State, Oregon. Off huge wins, crushing losses, strange misleading results that make you see value when there is none.
Once I saw the lines, I had to add S. Carolina. That -7 is just a silly line. Tenn or nothing.
AGAIN, I am not saying to play against these teams, just know you are likely betting into a bad spot.
2. Tracking the top ten public plays at thespread. While I track all week, I use the Sat am numbers for my ATS results. Since week 3 the top 10 Public bets are 16-33-1 ATS. The best that list has done is 5-5 in any given week. Man do I hate it when I jump a line at the open and then see it on that list.
FYI last week 1-9: ATS wins: UCLA (and that was pure luck, goal line stand and a garbage TD)
Losses: NIU, Ohio, MD, Memph, Baylor, Stanford, Arky st, UNLV, aTm
Good luck this week.
1. I have been trying to keep a weekly list of teams to avoid. Not necessarily to fade, but bad spots to bet into. It has helped me save my bankroll. I create the list before the lines come out and then tweak it when I see something stupid.
Here is my list for this week:
NO play/fade list: Mizzou, Utah, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Ole Piss, Wash, Oregon State, Oregon. Off huge wins, crushing losses, strange misleading results that make you see value when there is none.
Once I saw the lines, I had to add S. Carolina. That -7 is just a silly line. Tenn or nothing.
AGAIN, I am not saying to play against these teams, just know you are likely betting into a bad spot.
2. Tracking the top ten public plays at thespread. While I track all week, I use the Sat am numbers for my ATS results. Since week 3 the top 10 Public bets are 16-33-1 ATS. The best that list has done is 5-5 in any given week. Man do I hate it when I jump a line at the open and then see it on that list.
FYI last week 1-9: ATS wins: UCLA (and that was pure luck, goal line stand and a garbage TD)
Losses: NIU, Ohio, MD, Memph, Baylor, Stanford, Arky st, UNLV, aTm
Good luck this week.
0
Do people even want to get better? 
One of the reasons I am loathe to post much. But I think I have something to add, and I know I have a lot to learn. This is only year 4 for me taking CFB seriously.
which makes the total seem out of whack, and reminds us of sample size issues. 2 weeks it has gone 5-5. BUT it gives me a great sense of what the perceptions of the teams are "out there". This helps me see lines in a better way, AND helps me know when to "jump" a line early. I'm getting better at predicting where the lines will go. A point here or there doesn't seem like much, but it really adds up.
). I think, on some level, most of us get that, but these games are like crack. So, for example, it would take a court order to get me bet Wyoming tomorrow, even though I like them. That's the easy part. The hard part is letting it go if the Pokes win by 24. That's what the guys who lose, or don't win, can't do. They obsess over the 30-35?% of those game that will hit, while failing to recognize that 65% of them don't. 65% is a pretty powerful number is this game. I do something like what you're doing, and simply remove from further consideration certain teams each week. It lets you focus on the ones with value (and there are 14-17 games/week that turn out to be no-brainer covers). Good stuff, Bandos.
Hot Forum Topics
