Weeeellll I wasn't planning on getting involved much in the semi's as I'm on a bit of a losing streak in the CFP and was just going to ride out my future bets. But Penn St went FULL Penn St and blew a game they had no business losing.
Let's talk about the Cotton Bowl...
Texas vs OSU
Have been able to see my team face both of these schools that are playing tonight. I'll say right off the bat I put together a fun little parlay of Texas NC and Lions Super Bowl immediately following that September game. Texas was the best college football team I had seen since 2021 UGA. I had not, and since that game have not, seen a team that could dominate Michigan's D front like Texas did. The injury report is really important here because Texas has not been at full strength on the OL in quite some time. Tonight they're expected to get Cam Williams back (missed vs ASU) and is a first round talent. Kelvin Banks is expected to go as well. They need these guys because this is exactly the formula thats required vs OSU.
Also think the overall talent/speed/skill/everything that Texas possesses on offense is just better than anything else OSU has seen this year, including Oregon. Was truly blown away by this teams efficiency. It's just so effortless when you have this good of an OL and a QB who can throw the ball (more on that later), along with a couple of backs to carry the lunch behind that OL.
The QB is the guy I'm also most wary of. Quinn Ewers, from what I've watched, has regressed a lot as this season has gone on. Just careless decision making and throws a pretty bad deep ball. Leaving his hand you'd think there's nobody within 15 yards of the intended receiver, then the camera pans over and it's triple coverage and an easy INT lol. I also don't care for how lax this team is with a lead. Beat Michigan 31-12, could have been 55-3 but they shut it down. More recently jump all over A&M, Clemson, ASU and then things get real tight as the game goes on. The 2 UGA losses look particularly bad now. Texas struggled in the RZ at times and that's one thing OSU will make them do is earn points down there. If the OL protects the WR's should have a nice day.. something we haven't seen the past 2 games is the flag parade that plagued these DB's all year long.
Ohio St is coming into this game a complete freight train. 2 of the more impressive wins you'll see at any point in a season, got out in front 55-0 combined before giving up a point vs Tenn/Oregon. My thoughts on those are Tennessee with a freshman QB, lost their RB immediately, and past the front 4 on DL theyre not a good matchup with OSU's offense. Oregon fell into the revenge game category and hadn't played in a month (all 4 bye teams lost). I'm not saying thats the reason of the outcome but I think OSU has been playing some very motivated, high level ball and my own opinion is this is by far the best opponent and will be challenging to keep up that level of intensity. This to me is the let down game and I'm sure a lot of you disagree with that being a semi-final game.
OSU offense has been a machine, I do think Texas has enough speed on the back end to compete with the WR's. Jeremiah Smith is out of this world and I suspect they're going to have something for him. Make someone else beat you. Texas is big, physical at all levels and this could be where the make shift OL gets challenged. Stop the run and make Will Howard make plays, yes he's seen Texas but thats irrelevant here.
For months now I've looked at Texas as built in the same type of way that has baffled OSU in recent years. Maybe it means nothing tonight because of some of the things I mentioned above. Maybe OSU continues its thrashing of the CFP and mutilates a leprachaun in 11 days. Either way just going with what I perceive as a tough matchup position to position for the Bucks.
The betting splits are strange to me as well with massive % of bets on OSU and lots of $$ on Texas with very little movement in the line. I have this number at OSU -2.7 on a neutral field. I think Texas needs to get away from the home run ball and try to have long possessions tonight. Also think their defense is fully capable of making the OSU snap it alot. Even if they score, make them run a lot of plays per drive and some good things will happen for them over the course of the game.
I'll go with OSU 30 Texas 28 (honestly no idea on score just tossing numbers out) & if Texas plays a simple game and Ewers takes care of the pill they'll have a better than descent chance at an outright.
Enjoy the national title tonight!
Play: Texas +6.5, lean over
Last thing... whomever you think wins tonight... instead of betting this line maybe just bet the look ahead NC lines. Currently at OSU -9.5 and Texas -3..... with the injuries ND is dealing with now I don't think the actual title contest will be very competitive. Double digit win for either team. Still can't believe Allar and Penn St managed to blow that game last night. There will never be an easier road to the NC for Franklin.
Well think my points were pretty good on this game. You either make plays or you don’t & OSU made them when they needed it.
Will never ever understand the coaches thoughts on a 1st and goal from the 1 situation. You pound it straight forward behind your monster OL 4 straight times. Blew the game with that 2nd down play call imo bc Texas seemed to have more of the momentum minus a few big plays. Did a very nice job defensively. In the last 4 Mich/OSU games I don’t think I’ve ever seen MI do anything except pound the ball straight ahead inside the 5 and I don’t think they’ve ever been stopped. This yr Mich got cute and threw from the 1 and it got picked off. You need to gain 3 feet in 4 plays and you just blew your chance at a natty bc of overthinking it.
overall a very entertaining game. That title game is going to be a massacre
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