Early bets warrants an early thread. I RARELY ever lock things in this early but this is also my absolute favorite week of the season to bet. Every single year on Sunday/Monday following week 1 the talking heads and fanbases go absolutely crazy online penciling teams into playoff spots, writing teams off, and presenting trophies left and right. I label week 2 OVERREACTION week every season and its truly the best.... most years
Don't waste your time dwelling on good teams that underwhelmed in week 1. Have to take into consideration that the opponents, likely large dogs, have had these meetings circled on their calendar all summer. The staffs have prepped for it all summer. Now we get into the week to week and start to find out who these teams are moving forward. Look for your value spots with all of these factors taken into account - i'm guessing theres numerous to try and exploit.
Early bets warrants an early thread. I RARELY ever lock things in this early but this is also my absolute favorite week of the season to bet. Every single year on Sunday/Monday following week 1 the talking heads and fanbases go absolutely crazy online penciling teams into playoff spots, writing teams off, and presenting trophies left and right. I label week 2 OVERREACTION week every season and its truly the best.... most years
Don't waste your time dwelling on good teams that underwhelmed in week 1. Have to take into consideration that the opponents, likely large dogs, have had these meetings circled on their calendar all summer. The staffs have prepped for it all summer. Now we get into the week to week and start to find out who these teams are moving forward. Look for your value spots with all of these factors taken into account - i'm guessing theres numerous to try and exploit.
I jumped on Rutgers and Under right out the gate......nasty nasty defense and Akron lost their QB and the backup was scared and the worse throw form I have ever seen....stand upright and throw straight down like an old school over the top pitcher
Of course, Ohio St got my predicted defensive TD and actually got two including one thrown off the helmet of a lineman from the backup ....I 've never seen that before!
I jumped on Rutgers and Under right out the gate......nasty nasty defense and Akron lost their QB and the backup was scared and the worse throw form I have ever seen....stand upright and throw straight down like an old school over the top pitcher
Of course, Ohio St got my predicted defensive TD and actually got two including one thrown off the helmet of a lineman from the backup ....I 've never seen that before!
@Last2thirst If I may ask, what did you get Rutgers at? They are -23 currently
Exactly that. And Under 41.5
It appears the kid QB I saw was 3rd string and Taj Bullock is going to start and can run but I expect Rutgers defense to be disciplined and now leaning toward the UNDER that much more
@Last2thirst If I may ask, what did you get Rutgers at? They are -23 currently
Exactly that. And Under 41.5
It appears the kid QB I saw was 3rd string and Taj Bullock is going to start and can run but I expect Rutgers defense to be disciplined and now leaning toward the UNDER that much more
My theory sort of kind of applies tonight. Think there is some value on FSU -15.5. Noles looked crazy bad week 0. Key difference in this one is this is BC's first game so they've had ample prep time. Other reason is I just can't stand DJ. Still think FSU covers but NOT playing this given the above.
My theory sort of kind of applies tonight. Think there is some value on FSU -15.5. Noles looked crazy bad week 0. Key difference in this one is this is BC's first game so they've had ample prep time. Other reason is I just can't stand DJ. Still think FSU covers but NOT playing this given the above.
First things first. I feel pretty confident in saying both Texas and Michigan spent a large chunk of their summer preparing for this showdown, not so much week 1. Couple notes on Michigan's end, the starting secondary was off the field for multiple series in the first half. From what I hear one of the better playmakers in camp, Fred Moore, played 3 snaps the entire game. Edwards didn't get much run - not that he deserved it anyway.
I really like this Texas team and think it's the toughest game on Michigans schedule coming into the season, primarily because Texas returns a really good, experienced offensive line that can match up against the D front from Michigan. They also have a QB who's going to play on Sunday & this might be the only one on the schedule. As I had said in the pre-season stuff, Michigan has run an NFL style D the past few years and it gives the majority of college QB's fits. Reading the defense pre-snap is a HUGE difference between college and the pros.
In looking at this matchup I singled out a few games from 2023 given Texas returns a lot. The games they struggled to separate are games they averaged less then 4 yards per carry on offense. Lost 34-30 to OU avg 3.9 ypc. Win 31-24 @ Houston avg 3.8 ypc. Win 29-26 @ TCU avg 4.0 ypc. Win 26-16 @ Iowa St 3.6 ypc. The big win early in the year 34-24 vs Alabama they only avg 2.8 ypc but were +2 in TO.
Michigans run defense was nearly a full yard or better than all of those defenses (Alabama was 0.7 ypc worse). Not sure what to make of early season Bama as they struggled with USF the very next week who avg a full yard more per carry than Texas did.
Long story short - this is what we want. We want Texas throwing the football A LOT. Even if it's successful, keep it in Ewers hands. I expect Texas to move it fairly well, but 3's vs 7's is the key for me. I also think Quinn can struggle a bit when under pressure and even though Texas has a great OL it's going to be almost impossible to keep him clean vs this Michigan D. For reference, Iowa state avg 1.3 sacks per game in 2023 and Texas gave up 4 to them, OU avg 1.8 sacks per game and had 5 vs Texas, Baylor avg 1.4 and had 3, Houston avg 2.1 and had 3. None of those are top 65 (most outside top 100). Michigan avg 2.6 and was top 30 in the nation in this category. I do think the Michigan defense will generate pressure, come up with a few TO's & I think the injury issues at RB will be notable here.
In terms of pass defense, Ewers didn't face anyone inside the top 25 last year in terms of yards per game. Michigan finished #2 in the country - granted it's the B1G so lots of running. Allowed OSU 271 through the air (avg 261/game) & 255 vs Washington (avg 344/game). They have a few new faces, one being a dude I'm excited about in Jyaire Hill. Michigans corners are very long, 6'2", and very physical which they'll need vs these Texas wide outs. One thing I keep seeing is "explosiveness and athleticism" for Texas' playmakers. Certainly true, but major disrespect to the speed and physicality of Michigans defenders.
Will touch on the other side of the ball & prediction later on but here's a start on my thoughts this week.
First things first. I feel pretty confident in saying both Texas and Michigan spent a large chunk of their summer preparing for this showdown, not so much week 1. Couple notes on Michigan's end, the starting secondary was off the field for multiple series in the first half. From what I hear one of the better playmakers in camp, Fred Moore, played 3 snaps the entire game. Edwards didn't get much run - not that he deserved it anyway.
I really like this Texas team and think it's the toughest game on Michigans schedule coming into the season, primarily because Texas returns a really good, experienced offensive line that can match up against the D front from Michigan. They also have a QB who's going to play on Sunday & this might be the only one on the schedule. As I had said in the pre-season stuff, Michigan has run an NFL style D the past few years and it gives the majority of college QB's fits. Reading the defense pre-snap is a HUGE difference between college and the pros.
In looking at this matchup I singled out a few games from 2023 given Texas returns a lot. The games they struggled to separate are games they averaged less then 4 yards per carry on offense. Lost 34-30 to OU avg 3.9 ypc. Win 31-24 @ Houston avg 3.8 ypc. Win 29-26 @ TCU avg 4.0 ypc. Win 26-16 @ Iowa St 3.6 ypc. The big win early in the year 34-24 vs Alabama they only avg 2.8 ypc but were +2 in TO.
Michigans run defense was nearly a full yard or better than all of those defenses (Alabama was 0.7 ypc worse). Not sure what to make of early season Bama as they struggled with USF the very next week who avg a full yard more per carry than Texas did.
Long story short - this is what we want. We want Texas throwing the football A LOT. Even if it's successful, keep it in Ewers hands. I expect Texas to move it fairly well, but 3's vs 7's is the key for me. I also think Quinn can struggle a bit when under pressure and even though Texas has a great OL it's going to be almost impossible to keep him clean vs this Michigan D. For reference, Iowa state avg 1.3 sacks per game in 2023 and Texas gave up 4 to them, OU avg 1.8 sacks per game and had 5 vs Texas, Baylor avg 1.4 and had 3, Houston avg 2.1 and had 3. None of those are top 65 (most outside top 100). Michigan avg 2.6 and was top 30 in the nation in this category. I do think the Michigan defense will generate pressure, come up with a few TO's & I think the injury issues at RB will be notable here.
In terms of pass defense, Ewers didn't face anyone inside the top 25 last year in terms of yards per game. Michigan finished #2 in the country - granted it's the B1G so lots of running. Allowed OSU 271 through the air (avg 261/game) & 255 vs Washington (avg 344/game). They have a few new faces, one being a dude I'm excited about in Jyaire Hill. Michigans corners are very long, 6'2", and very physical which they'll need vs these Texas wide outs. One thing I keep seeing is "explosiveness and athleticism" for Texas' playmakers. Certainly true, but major disrespect to the speed and physicality of Michigans defenders.
Will touch on the other side of the ball & prediction later on but here's a start on my thoughts this week.
All things considered theres one other thing that gives me a little pause and that's the DC change. Wink can be a little bit too aggressive and blitz blitz blitz. Will have to be careful with sending too many as Sarkisian is a great play designer and thats one scenario where the Texas playmakers would be very dangerous on screen type plays or quick dumps.
All things considered theres one other thing that gives me a little pause and that's the DC change. Wink can be a little bit too aggressive and blitz blitz blitz. Will have to be careful with sending too many as Sarkisian is a great play designer and thats one scenario where the Texas playmakers would be very dangerous on screen type plays or quick dumps.
Last thing about Ewers - he is much better when play action is working and he's clean, so again the run game will be important, otherwise his QBR drops > 20 pts.
Flip side is where the obvious concerns are for Michigan, replacing dang near everybody on offense aside from Loveland. The people in this business tell you that the greatest improvement in football usually comes from week 1 to 2. In terms of the OL, that has been true of Michigan in years past, struggled to run it against ECU in the opener last year for reference.
I'm encouraged that the OL seemed to make an adjustment and when Michigan actually needed a drive in the 2nd half they put together a pretty effortless one that ended with a TD strike to Loveland. I expect the OL will be better this week as will the running game. The places I think Texas can be had is between the tackles running the ball & in the secondary. I do think Michigan is able to run it effectively Saturday and what that does it put Warren in positions to be successful. Was solid in play action most times, so again establishing the run is important here. His 2 deep attempts were an underthrow to what should have been an easy score to Frederick Moore & a good ball that Tyler Morris quit on for whatever reason so looked to be an overthrow. Didn't really see much of some of the things I expected in week 1 which was Marklin Klein and more Donovan Edwards catching the ball. The 2 TE's are massive targets and can find success over the middle.
I have concern about the offense, but not quite as much as the national perception... this week certainly can't be a repeat performance against Texas or things won't go well. What Michigan can't do is be unable to sustain a drive and give the defense a breather. My one question about the defense compared to last season is the depth. The defense needs to be the strength and that means not hanging them out to dry by being unable to sustain an offensive drive.
Special teams are good on both sides. Super impressed by the transfer kicker for Michigan that guy is a weapon at the college level and would have been good from 60-65 on a few kicks. Love that kind of insurance policy in tight games (see UM/OSU last yr).
The weather Saturday is pretty odd for a early September game. Game temps low to mid 50's with clouds/rain at times.
End of the day it's hard to change my feelings on this game after 1 week of football for both teams. I would have taken Michigan +3.5/ML preseason and I feel the same now which is why it's an upgraded bet at +7. I do think Michigan can win this game given the above. Certainly see how they lose this game too & if your looking purely at QB play here then yeah there's reason to really like Texas.
Last thing about Ewers - he is much better when play action is working and he's clean, so again the run game will be important, otherwise his QBR drops > 20 pts.
Flip side is where the obvious concerns are for Michigan, replacing dang near everybody on offense aside from Loveland. The people in this business tell you that the greatest improvement in football usually comes from week 1 to 2. In terms of the OL, that has been true of Michigan in years past, struggled to run it against ECU in the opener last year for reference.
I'm encouraged that the OL seemed to make an adjustment and when Michigan actually needed a drive in the 2nd half they put together a pretty effortless one that ended with a TD strike to Loveland. I expect the OL will be better this week as will the running game. The places I think Texas can be had is between the tackles running the ball & in the secondary. I do think Michigan is able to run it effectively Saturday and what that does it put Warren in positions to be successful. Was solid in play action most times, so again establishing the run is important here. His 2 deep attempts were an underthrow to what should have been an easy score to Frederick Moore & a good ball that Tyler Morris quit on for whatever reason so looked to be an overthrow. Didn't really see much of some of the things I expected in week 1 which was Marklin Klein and more Donovan Edwards catching the ball. The 2 TE's are massive targets and can find success over the middle.
I have concern about the offense, but not quite as much as the national perception... this week certainly can't be a repeat performance against Texas or things won't go well. What Michigan can't do is be unable to sustain a drive and give the defense a breather. My one question about the defense compared to last season is the depth. The defense needs to be the strength and that means not hanging them out to dry by being unable to sustain an offensive drive.
Special teams are good on both sides. Super impressed by the transfer kicker for Michigan that guy is a weapon at the college level and would have been good from 60-65 on a few kicks. Love that kind of insurance policy in tight games (see UM/OSU last yr).
The weather Saturday is pretty odd for a early September game. Game temps low to mid 50's with clouds/rain at times.
End of the day it's hard to change my feelings on this game after 1 week of football for both teams. I would have taken Michigan +3.5/ML preseason and I feel the same now which is why it's an upgraded bet at +7. I do think Michigan can win this game given the above. Certainly see how they lose this game too & if your looking purely at QB play here then yeah there's reason to really like Texas.
Could happen. Oddly enough if Ewers goes for 300-350 I like Michigans chances
I also made a future bet today Michigan -2.5 against USC on FanDuel.
6 pt line move from week 1. Just absurd. I’d make that a 5u max bet but with 2 weeks to go injuries are the only thing holding me back so it’s 2.5u for now.
Could happen. Oddly enough if Ewers goes for 300-350 I like Michigans chances
I also made a future bet today Michigan -2.5 against USC on FanDuel.
6 pt line move from week 1. Just absurd. I’d make that a 5u max bet but with 2 weeks to go injuries are the only thing holding me back so it’s 2.5u for now.
I appreciate the write up. You bring up a number salient points in this Texas v. Michigan match up.
Where do you live? Do you live in Big 10 country? I agree with you that there may be an overreaction to Texas drumming of CSU, and Michigan struggling against Fresno State. According to Phil Steele, Michigan has 2 returning starters on offense...rank #117 out of 134 FBS in returning production. According to Steele, they only have 5 returning starters on D, and while the 2023 team allowed only 10 points per game, while Steele estimates that the 2024 Michigan D will allow a good but more reasonable 20 PPG. Does that concern you? 80% turnover on O, new QB, new starting RB (though Edwards has plenty of experience), and only 1 of the top 4 WRs returning...Granted, Texas has had some turnover on O as well, and we lost our top back in Baxter, but Steele has at 7 returning starters on O, and 8 on D...We still have significant experience at RB.
In all due respect, your predicted score of a Michigan Upset by 6, seems like a "Homer" pick. Though you may not be one per se, perhaps you are influenced by the Big Blue mystique. I am in fact, a Texas homer and alumnus (1992). Thus, I try to avoid betting on or against Texas as a rule of thumb. The opening line of Texas at -3 seemed reasonable. Texas loaded up from the portal, and paid these accomplished players well. I am not sure the Texas -7.5 is justified...
I know the Big House crowd will be loud, but prima facie, if this game were on a neutral field, the line would have opened at Texas - 7 and bid up to Texas -11...In Austin, it would have opened at Texas -11 and been potentially bid up to Texas -15...Texas has a top 3 QB, backed up by 5 star in Arch Manning versus Michigan 4 or 3 star QB, with virtually no experience. How, do you expect Michigan to move the ball against a Texas D loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits...that is expected to give up only 20 ppg with comparable depth to that of Michigan?
I agree that it will be a close game...from a Michigan 3 pt upset to a DD Texas win. I am trying to dig deep to see if I should back Texas or pass...Thank you in advance for your response.
I appreciate the write up. You bring up a number salient points in this Texas v. Michigan match up.
Where do you live? Do you live in Big 10 country? I agree with you that there may be an overreaction to Texas drumming of CSU, and Michigan struggling against Fresno State. According to Phil Steele, Michigan has 2 returning starters on offense...rank #117 out of 134 FBS in returning production. According to Steele, they only have 5 returning starters on D, and while the 2023 team allowed only 10 points per game, while Steele estimates that the 2024 Michigan D will allow a good but more reasonable 20 PPG. Does that concern you? 80% turnover on O, new QB, new starting RB (though Edwards has plenty of experience), and only 1 of the top 4 WRs returning...Granted, Texas has had some turnover on O as well, and we lost our top back in Baxter, but Steele has at 7 returning starters on O, and 8 on D...We still have significant experience at RB.
In all due respect, your predicted score of a Michigan Upset by 6, seems like a "Homer" pick. Though you may not be one per se, perhaps you are influenced by the Big Blue mystique. I am in fact, a Texas homer and alumnus (1992). Thus, I try to avoid betting on or against Texas as a rule of thumb. The opening line of Texas at -3 seemed reasonable. Texas loaded up from the portal, and paid these accomplished players well. I am not sure the Texas -7.5 is justified...
I know the Big House crowd will be loud, but prima facie, if this game were on a neutral field, the line would have opened at Texas - 7 and bid up to Texas -11...In Austin, it would have opened at Texas -11 and been potentially bid up to Texas -15...Texas has a top 3 QB, backed up by 5 star in Arch Manning versus Michigan 4 or 3 star QB, with virtually no experience. How, do you expect Michigan to move the ball against a Texas D loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits...that is expected to give up only 20 ppg with comparable depth to that of Michigan?
I agree that it will be a close game...from a Michigan 3 pt upset to a DD Texas win. I am trying to dig deep to see if I should back Texas or pass...Thank you in advance for your response.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.