****Ball St. vs Tulsa writeup***

BOL

thanks!!

Good write up! 

Interesting trend here which I find hard to believe (not saying I am doubting you... just saying I personally find it hard to believe). Usually the unranked favorite is money like you mentioned. I'm assuming one of the 3 losses you have listed was with Arizona -3 vs BYU earlier this bowl season?

too long of a list to go through all of them it took me like 1.5 hours last night researching that... but ill give you like 5,i just dont have the time to put all of them up here.

1999 Peach Bowl- #15 Miss+3 vs Clemson. final score=17-7

2004 Alamo Bowl-#24 Ohio St+3 vs Ok. State. final score 33-7

2004 Sun Bowl-#21 Zona St.+8 vs Purdue final score 27-23

2007 Gator Bowl#21 Virginia+6 vs Texas Tech final score 28-31

2004 Continental Tire Bowl BC+1 vs UNC final score 37-24

GL

Great write up im with you! 

im not playing it but id play the under too...I think they both score in the 30's

Chris-

Nice work but I am on the other side. You make some good points on Ball State but I devalue a lot of their stats based upon the fact that they played in the MAC and the MAC has proven to be ABSOLUTELY LOUSY this year.

The four best teams in the MAC were Ball, Buffalo, Western Mich and Central Mich.

Buffalo was annihilated by UConn way worse than the 38-20 score indicates. I don't know that I have ever seen a team turn the ball over 5 times in the first half yet still win by such a large margin. UConn rushed for 358 yards a 7.3 yard per var average while Buffalo managed just 10 first downs (half of them during garbage time at the end of the game) and averaged just 1.3 yards per rush. Against Ball, Buffalo not only won by 18 points, but managed 18 first downs and 3.7 yards per carry.

Western Michigan was a complete embarrassment against Rice in their bowl game. They were down 38-0 before scoring two meaningless touchdowns. They were out first downed 28-15 (most of theirs came on their last two drives), averaged 3.2 yards per carry and they allowed 320 yards passing. Against Ball, they averaged 4.9 yards per carry and moved the ball in a hard fought 31-24 loss.

Central Florida, a 7 point favorite lost outright to Florida Atlantic out of the weak Sunbelt. FAU moved the ball at will with 28 first downs and 466 yards. CM managed 20 first downs against FAU and 27 FD's against Ball.

My point of all this is that Ball's numbers were amassed against teams that have proven to be unworthy. The three best MAc team they faced were embarrassed in bowl games. Western Mich failed to cover by 21 and were actually 35 points behind the spread before two meaningless TD's, Buffalo failed to cover by 11.5 even though UConn turned the ball over 5 times in the first half and Central Mich failed to cover by 10. The MAC couldn't have done much worse in these three games. In all three bowl games, the opposing teams offensive and defensive performances were better than Ball State's performance against the same three teams.

All in all, I think Ball State was extremely overrated. They are very reliant on RB Miquale Lewis while Tulsa has 5 backs averaging 5.8 yards or more per carry and 4 WR's with at least 7 TD's. Tulsa averaged 565 yards per game and Balls' undersized defensive line shouldn't put much pressure on Tulsa.

I could be wrong, but I am on Tulsa!

GL

Great info fellas

Thats exactly how I see it.

GL dtown

Thanks BOL