Baylor v UL Monroe

UL Monroe beat #8 Arkansas at home in OT, then they went on the road and loss in OT to Auburn. Two SEC teams. They come back home against Baylor, a non ranked team which is going on the road for the first time this year after losing 5 offensive starters (QB, RB, WR, two lineman), yet UL Monroe is still getting 7.5?

Don't be fooled. Auburn has no quarterback and Arkansas didn't have Tyler Wilson in the second half. In the first half (21-7 Arkansas), Arkansas had the ball 6 times, ran 36 plays (5 play of 15 yards or more), not counting last possession where they received ball with 18 seconds and not counting punting as a play, they scored 3 touchdowns, 1 interception and 2 punts. 

Nick Florence is no Brandon Allen nor Kiehl Frazier. Frazier definitely isn't a passer and Allen definitely wasn't prepared to play (coach's fault because you would expect to blow them out and have him ready to run a few plays). Florence beat Missouri in 2009 on the road in his 5th career start as a true freshman with a team record of  3-5 down 11 points at halftime. 32 for 43, 427 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INT. Senior QB, on list for Golden Arm award = he can sling it. UL Monroe gives up big plays and Baylor's offense is potent. What I'm saying is, UL Monroe defense isn't good against a QB who can actually pass the ball.

The line 7.5 is available at all books which is really no different from 8 to 9.5. You are realistically looking at two scores (realistically because you can't expect/rely on miss xp / safety / 2pt conversion/fail). Sharps aren't always right but when they see value, they jump on it. If sharps think UL Monroe is the play, 7.5 wouldn't be available, lines would be at 7 everywhere. You can say, maybe they are waiting for the line to move. The line going to 8 to 9.5, won't make a difference unless it hits 10. At 7.5, the books WANT/BAITING you to play UL Monore and more people will be tempted to play UL Monroe based off their past two games. If the books thought UL Monroe was the play, line would be at 6.5/7.

For those who think UL Monroe is the play, I'd recommend over instead because Baylor won't be stopped. 

Yes, I got Baylor -7. You don't want to buy points too much but when you move off a key number, there is value to it depending on how much it is going to cost you. If it costs you a lot, then it isn't worth it.

I got -7 for -115

If -7 costs too much, I'd take -7.5. I think Baylor wins by 20+

Your point is that you are on UL Monroe +7.5 and that I wrote all that, but don't have Baylor -7.5, but instead at -7.

Florence can also run the ball.

I got u...

Baylor is the play here, but even though I say it should be -13, you have to get them at -7 or better.   It's a no play at 7.5 for me